Notes From the EconoMatrix

In which I grade myself.  In the summary, the big picture, but by no means in detail, things are unfolding pretty much as I thought.  I think I haven't been bad.  But I think anyone who has eyes to see or ears to hear will see what I do.

What I've consistently gotten bad is timing.  For instance, in 2010, I swallowed the expert opinion that by Christmas of 2011 there would be tax riots and civil unrest.  Oops.  I also made a mistake by putting too much belief in the Occupy Whatever movement as a serious bunch of rabble rousers, assuming they'd be a serious problem last spring.  Essentially, the world moves much too slow for me - maybe it's from living in a world where I count picoseconds - and things I expected to take place long ago are still playing out.

Take that 2010 piece.  It was about Greece circling the bowl and on the verge of collapse.  Depending on who you talk with, Greece has collapsed already or will soon.  I vote that it has.  With unemployment officially reported as "dipping" to 26.4%, that sounds like collapse to me.  It's probably much worse than that.  Consider the US officially reported unemployment at 7.7%, when the reality derived by Shadowstats is closer to 24%, the Greek number is probably wildly optimistic. So Greece has collapsed, but they haven't pulled the EU down with it. 

Cyprus was out of the blue to me.  As a small country, I had not paid attention to them, but they could be the small domino falling that starts everything.  Or not.  Cyprus today is struggling to come up with 10 billion Euros - about $12.9 B dollars - to stave off default.  The IMF says their entire GDP is less than $23 B dollars.  To put that into perspective, the Fed is creating $85 B out of nothing every month and has been doing so since last September - half a trillion dollars already, created out of thin air.

Bayou Renaissance Man grabs a link from Casey Research which does a good job of showing the big picture of US Spending.    

As the total US debt approaches 17 Trillion, and the debt to GDP ratio climbs (next milestone 107%), it gets easier to see how we're somewhere in line after Greece, Cyprus, and the EU as their problems work out.  If you include the unfunded liabilities - payments the Fed.gov has promised to pay in the future - the US Debt/GDP ratio is almost 900%.  As the writer for Casey Research aptly puts it.

What you can also observe from this chart is that the federal government has grown into a behemoth, a huge prop under the economy… the world's largest economy, for the record. The idea that the politicians will find the backbone to cut this level of spending back to the point where it balances the budget is ludicrous. Even if enough of them wanted to make such cuts, the ensuing depression would trigger a public backlash that would see them voted out of power in the proverbial blink of an eye.

Which is to say that the current trend of currency debasement is almost certainly going to continue until it simply can't anymore.

The next country to fall into the toilet might well not come from the European Union.  It might be Japan.  Forbes contributor James Gruber writes on how he expects Japan to fall into hyperinflationary collapse.

Given its over-indebtedness, Japan has few good options left. But the policies being pursued by Shinzo Abe will fast-forward a major debt and currency crisis. It’s a matter of when, not if.

Government debt to GDP in Japan is now 245%, far higher than any other country. Total debt to GDP is 500%. Government expenditure to government revenue is a staggering 2000%. Meanwhile interest costs on government debt equal 25% of government revenue.

And that's the essence of it.  What can't go on forever won't go on.  All that writers are doing is taking a guess at when it ends.  That's inherently unpredictable because it depends on a Godzillion variables and those depend on human psychology as much as numbers.  The dollar is currently strong against other currencies - "the least disgusting girl at the dance" theory.  I expect the dollar to stay high while other countries are going through their issues. 

There are two things I want to mention as I wrap this up.  A few weeks ago, I got the chance to view a couple of DVDs called the Isaiah 9:10 Judgement.  I know many of my readers are Christian or come from a friendly perspective and I'd recommend you watch this if you get a chance.  The first thing is that the video marks the attacks of 9/11 as corresponding to the events of Isaiah 9:10.  Seven years to the day after the 9/11 attacks - on the Hebrew calendar - was the market collapse of '08.  By extension, to me, the next major hit to the US or our final collapse, might well be seven years to the day after that.  That's in September of 2015.  I don't know the exact day.  Anybody here have the Hebrew calendar?  The second thing I want to mention is that our pastor said something very interesting tonight.  He said that he and his wife have both had the quiet inner voice tell them "faster... time is running short".  My wife and I have had the same thing.