Two nights ago, when I wrote the first piece, I spent too much time looking for and not finding a chart I had seen which ranked the longest running bull markets in US history. I found it tonight, and it's worth doing an addendum.
Like the other charts I posted, this one is from Bonner and Partners, an independent publishing house that dispenses the "folksy wisdom" of founder Bill Bonner and his group of writers. Since I read more of his views on the world economy than anyone else, I'm sure I'm more influenced by his take on things than anyone else. I make no claims to special insights, I'm just "some dood with a blog".
Look around at the out-of-business stores in your neighborhood; look at the empty houses. Does this really seem like a bustling, growing economy? There's 17 months difference between this bull market and the longest, the Dot-Com boom of the 1990s. Does it really seem to you like this market could go up for another 17 months? For as long as I can recall, I've been saying that the global economy is so distorted by the manipulations of the central banks that they've destroyed all the signalling and information that creates a working economy. With interest rates below inflation, or below zero as they are in so much of the world, "free money" removes part of the incentive to be careful with cash and expenditures. The world reeks of malinvestments.
US National Debt.
Finally, you've all probably seen something like this:
Let that sink in for a moment.
When the War on Cash picks up again (it has been relatively quiet for a while), it would be no harder for the Fed.gov to outlaw Bitcoin than it was for them to outlaw gold in the 1930s. The dream state for the central planners is for cash to not exist any longer - I wrote about this two years ago. That way they could change the value of your money by the day if they wanted to. Your life would be completely in their control.
I think it's Kevin at The Smallest Minority who has the phrase, "bad history is coming". I think that's a good summary.
Mauldin economics also puts out a newsletter that is well worth reading. The last issue came out about a week ago and they were debating evaluations as well listing those who were bullish, bearish, and neutral. They did give some useful advise for those who like to invest on their own and that was using a simple 200 day moving average to get out or in a market to keep a person from staying in or out of a market on the wrong side for extended periods. There are also always inflation hedges that a person can use to protect some of their "savings". Everyone should have some metals and from a preppers point of view it never hurts to have a couple of years of storable food. It is also of value to track the price of silver dimes from pre 1964. I graduated in 1964 and remember gas at about 35 cents. The current price of pre 64 dimes at 17.00+ dollars per oz and 1.29 apiece gives me a price of 1964 gas at about 4.50 so I know that gas isn't overpriced by 1964 standards. But you should also value your current pay in pre 64 dimes to see if your pay has kept up. A lot of people have not had their pay keep up. indyjonesouthereReplyDelete
Thanks for the suggestion. I opened the website in another tab and will check them out.Delete
I also happen to like Peak Prosperity by Chris Martenson, and a few others.
Your point on the price of gas in 1964 silver coins is exactly right, though. Virtually everything we see around us going up: the price of food, the price of our homes, and with only a few exceptions, goes up because of more money being printed - inflation. If you live in a place where there's a strong demand for housing, your house has gotten more valuable. Otherwise, it's just fake money from the Fed. They say an ounce of gold bought 300 loaves of bread 3000 years ago and still buys 300 loaves today. That's about right, depending on the exact kind of bread you're talking about. An ounce of gold used to buy a nice gun in the late 1800s and buys a nice gun today.
The average working guy has not gotten ahead since the late 1960s.
An ounce of gold bought a Roman Senator's fine toga before the crash of the Roman Empire. It buys a US Senator's fine suit today. It bought a businessman's fine suit in the late 19th Century in London. It still does today. An ounce of gold has bought a gentleman a fine suit of clothes for over 2500 years. Gold isn't increasing in value; currency is deflating. In 1973, when gold was first possible to own again, a fine revolver was priced about $79. Today, the same functionality would still cost between 1.5 to 2 oz. of gold, depending on which model revolver one chooses today. Gold has held its value for at least 3,000 to 5,000 years, now. Bitcoin will likely be destroyed by governments pushing to eliminate crypto cash globally, similar to what FDR did in 1933 with gold. Gold, lead, copper, brass, and junk silver all are worth acquiring today. The Spanish have a saying of "Plata o Plumbum", silver or lead, you decide, when negotiating. I Have added significantly to my "collection" of all these metals. A prudent man should.ReplyDelete
Except, Anonymous, an ounce of gold isn't really an ounce of gold these days. My understanding is that there are at least 500 paper certificates for each unit of gold in existence. Are you able to get any notable quantity of that metal - the actual metal, that is, not a paper certificate for same - for anywhere near the official price?Delete
Mark, those are separate markets. You can go to Kitco, Apmex, Gainesville Coins or any number of dealers and buy gold coins by the ounce, as many as you want, get them shipped to you in a box and stick them in your gun safe. There's always a markup over pure spot price - the coins have to be fabricated, shipped, stored and so on - but it's not exorbitant. You're not paying twice as much for a coin as you do for a certificate. The dealers periodically run sales on those markups, too.Delete
A quick check at Apmex says that with a spot "asking" price of $1324.10, you can buy a US gold Eagle for "as low as $1364.09" call it a $42 markup. That's quantity buying, 20 or more. One coin is $1374.49.
I buy gold Eagles. No sales tax on those. Both 1 oz. and 1/10th oz. The markup is very low over the spot price of gold. For the last 1 oz. coins, I think it was around $35. The markup on the 1/10 oz. Eagles is slightly more, percentage wise. Junk silver markup is lower as that is bought locally. It is but a multiplier of the face value. Dollar cost averaging works wonders. As for lead, that is under 50 cents a pound. I last bought 125 pounds of it for $50 off Craigslist. Pure lead. I have about another 150 pounds of alloyed lead. It is now in ingots, and I run through about 20 lbs. per year. Molds are cheap. I have 45-70, .38, 30-30, 30-06, 00, 0000, among many others for modern. I have .31, .36, .44, .50, and .69, among others for BP. I also have plenty of powder, primers, caps, flints, etc. I also have plenty of brass in all the " flavors" I favor. Also, have plenty of FMJ in all the standard sizes I use. Practice is important. Marksmanship is a perishable skill. I also teach marksmanship. Paper certificates are not gold. Neither are exchanged traded funds gold. I hold small amounts only of those. Argentina, Venezuela, Weimar Republic, are not just history. They are also a crystal ball view of the future. Diversification of skills, supplies, knowledge, and networks of friends and family are critical.ReplyDelete
Excellent summary, especially the info about the gold coins and metals.Delete
I've personally never cast bullets, but was thinking about getting started. My latest habit (as you know if you read here regularly) is 6.5 Creedmoor, and that stuff is still expensive to shoot. $1 to $1.25/round for store bought ammo. I haven't gone looking for molds, but I don't even know what bullets to buy.
It's "Tough History Coming," but yeah, that's me.ReplyDelete
My lead casting is all for short range use, only. Long range is different. Out to 400 yards, it's 5.56 55 grainers FMJ. Cheap, Walmart Federal XM193, at under $0.30 a pop. Out to 1200 yards, it's 7 mm Rem. Magnum 168 gr. in the old Secret Service counter sniper recipe hand loads. Out to 2400 yards, it's .338 Lapua Magnum. .338 Lapua is $7 a round store bought match. But, better performing hand loads are only $1.50 a round. And, it's capable of punching body armor at 1000 meters. Groups are one hole at 100 yards, opening up to 3-4 inches depending on wind at 600 yards. Past 400 yards, it's all about reading the wind. No bipod until past 600 yards. Just old fashioned cotton loop sling at shorter distances. You missed a good Appleseed KD back in April, incidentally.ReplyDelete