A little more involved catching up

In which I need to ask for help if you can.  

At top of the "home page" of the blog, right above the blue box that has the blog's name in it, there's a thin gray bar.  There's a little box on the left of that bar just next to an Orange block with a white B in it - the logo for Google's Blogger home page.  If you enter the phrase "cardio is killing you" in the search box it will open four posts.  In the default order they're Cardio May Be Killing You from September 8, 2011, Cardio May Be Killing You - Part 2 from August 1, 2016. Those are the better references, but there's also a third post about corporate wellness programs, Wait... I'm Not the Only One Questioning Wellness Programs? (The last one isn't really related and I have no idea why Blogger returned it in the search).

What I'm calling attention to here is that both of those first two focus on the idea that while the popular idea since the 1970s or earlier was that running or cycling "cardio exercise" in general was the ticket to better health and longer life.  In fact, there was a hidden untruth in there based on the very common attitude that more is better.  Blindly increasing your mileage running or riding or even just walking is not a ticket to long health and better life.  To borrow a passage from myself, ever since Dr. Kenneth Cooper's work on aerobics in the 1960s, cardio has been the standard recommendation.  In the 1970s, when I first started running, there was a highly publicized study that said no marathon runner had ever had a heart attack. They concluded that marathon running made you immune to heart attacks. This was bullcrap - it was pure selection bias.  When this study was done, marathon running was an obscure sport, and only a few really dedicated people ran marathons, so they were a self-selected group of very unusual people.  As the running fad spread, more and more people, with their checkered pasts, started running, and it wasn't too long before marathon runners started having heart attacks, too.  

Where I'm going with this is a major portion of the second post, about atrial fibrillation or Afib.  Like I said, I started running in the late '70s when the fad was soaking in quite well across the country.  I'm not sure exactly when but let's say around '77-'78, so I was 23-24 and not in particularly good shape.  In school I ran when they told me - aside from the sandlot football we'd play - and almost laughed at running deliberately.  Someone likes running?  "Pull the other one, it's got bells on it."  Somewhere around 1994 I saw an orthopedic surgeon about knee pain - it wasn't the first time - that ended with a  fatherly, hand on my shoulder and him saying "you know,  you're not built like a runner."  I had bought a nice bike but we never really rode much.  Suddenly it seemed like a good idea and we started riding.   

I was wholeheartedly “more is better” in cycling for years.  Be able to ride a century (100 miles) any day of the year, “you can ride in one day whatever you ride in a typical week.” My wife and I used to ride together maybe 6 days/week - skipping Friday evenings. Yeah, we'd get rained out or blown out by extreme winds, but the normal thing was to ride every day after work and dinner. This started in the early 90s because I had been the same way about jogging and by the time I was getting close to 40, my knees were giving out. By about 2010 or 12, we just started riding less and eventually dropped it. 

In 2013, the year I turned 59, I had a sudden bunch of awful feelings in my chest - and I was sure I must have talked about it here but it wasn't one big post I couldn't find about it.  After some preliminary things, I was referred to cardiologist and wore one of those 24 hour monitors you'll hear about (a Holter monitor).  Among other things I was told I had Atrial fibrillation - Afib.  I've been through lots of experiences with the cardiologist, who retired a few years ago, and I was assigned to his replacement in that practice group.  Last year, when I turned 70, he told me my chances of having a stroke due to the Afib double when you cross 70, (yeah, from 1% to 2% absolute risk) and started me on a blood thinner

Which leads me to this year.  At my annual check in visit with the cardiologist they told me that during a couple of previous echocardiograms, the results had said my Afib was causing the valve to leak and they set me up for a TEE, - Trans Esophageal Echocardiogram - to get a closer look at my atrial valves.  That was my June 2nd hospital visit.  The TEE is supposed to be able to give a more precise measure of "how leaky is leaky."  So how leaky was it? 

The answer is that it's not a bad leak but it's time to face some harsh realities.  The whole time I was being monitored there (so every time he's seen me since April) I was in Afib constantly.  I don't really notice it, but that doesn't mean anything.

Harsh reality #1: much like my hernia, Afib and these valves don't get better on their own. 

Harsh reality #2: there are pretty much just two ways to fix it. The first is called cardioversion, which uses medication and once you've got the drug in your system, they shock your heart back into a proper rhythm. With the exception of I think that puts me on that medication for life, I think it’s the relatively low pain option. The other fix is more invasive, called ablation. That one shoves an electric probe with an imager and more up your femoral artery into your heart and literally burns away some heart tissue that is causing the Afib. As I understand it, we’re unconscious through that.  There's a cryoablation version of that kills parts of the atrium by freezing instead of burning.  I don't see much difference.  

As it turns out I have two friends that have been down this decision path: one had ablation, and the other had cardioversion.  The doc asked me to do some research and let him know which one I'm more interested in getting done.  The guy with ablation is off his prescriptions and completely over it.  The bad  part is he had to have the ablation done twice and they were six years apart.  I'd really like to not have to do that.  The guy who had cardioversion was "one and done" but he's still on his prescriptions, (in fact the same two drugs I'm on - blood thinner and beta blocker).  

I was hoping to find people who have “Been There, Done That” with either of the Afib fixes. Lacking that, maybe a link to someplace else online where I could go.  At the moment, I'm leaning toward the ablation but that's not as strong as I was leaning before I found my friend had to wait six years to finally get it fixed. 

Thoughts appreciated, stories, results - that sort of thing.  I don't expect doctors to answer, just folks who have BTDT. 

A little catching up

Since I can't really find anything on the space news sites I visit regularly, I'm going to bore you with some stuff about ME.  It might border on TMI, not really related to anything space-related - just stuff I've been going through.  As I usually say, if that doesn't sound interesting, check back tomorrow or Monday.

About a month ago, I did a story about an upcoming surgery that was going to be the next day.  The surgery was to repair an umbilical hernia - belly button area, not the "crotch busters" people associate with hernias that guys get.  I see my next post was the 13th, so I only missed the day of surgery.  A week later I thought I was completely done, although my post-surgical visit was set for the 25th.  I had switched from prescription pain pills to over-the-counter Extra Strength Tylenol because it worked better and was taking less of it after that.  By the end of the 8th day I was doubled over with a different thing: an insanely itchy area not pain.   

I did a followup post full of the TMI about that on Sunday, June 22nd.  

Thankfully that's almost completely gone.  On my followup with one of the Surgeon's PAs, he recommended a couple of old, low-tech fixes: benadryl antihistamine pills every four hours, calamine/benadryl lotion topically.  The important part was that he also told me I was discharged, go return to life as usual - carefully.  Just start out with less than you used to do and build back to it.  I've noticed the absence of pain I used to get if I accidentally tensed my stomach muscles too much, even yawning and stretching in the middle of the night.  That used to hurt until almost noon on most days but sometimes would go hours longer.

The rash has been gone at least a full week, if not more.  The surgery had microrobotic aspects, so they cut three holes in my abdomen to put those tools in, and the way they close those is stitches under the skin, but close the skin with glue.  I still have one or two of those suddenly get itchy for a while, but it's also getting less intense when it happens and today has been an easy day. 

It's hard to say what percent of "back to normal" I've made it to.  Certain things are getting back to normal, others aren't.  I haven't ridden my bike yet, but it's on the workstand so I can tweak the shifter because the rear derailleur feels "off center."   At 60 to 90 minutes a few times a week, it's not a big time percentage, it just feels more important.  

And for no particular reason:

For those who aren't familiar, Dr. Shawn Baker is an MD who has adopted and advocated for the carnivore diet.  Very good videos on YouTube, usually under 10 minutes - or at least the ones I've watched.  One of the things I couldn't help but notice in the inescapable long waiting periods in the hospital is how the vast majority of the staff are built more like this make believe toy than someone like Dr. Baker. 

SpaceX wins OK to extract LOX and LN2 at Starbase

Thanks to a lead from Ars Technica's Rocket Report this week, we learn that SpaceX has won approval to build a plant to extract and liquefy both Oxygen and Nitrogen from air.  

Cameron County has given SpaceX the green light to build an air separator facility, which will be located less than 300 feet from the region’s sand dunes, frustrating locals concerned about the impact on vegetation and wildlife.

The commissioners voted, 3-1, to give Elon Musk’s rocket company a beachfront construction certificate and dune protection permit, allowing the company to build a modern-day factory akin to an oil refinery to produce gases needed for space flight launches.

The plant will consist of 20 structures on 1.66 acres. The enclosed site will include a tower that will reach 159 feet, or about 15 stories high, much shorter than the nearby launch tower, which stretches 480 feet high. It is set to be built about 280 feet inland from the line of vegetation, which is where the dunes begin. The factory will separate air into nitrogen and oxygen. SpaceX utilizes liquid oxygen as a propellant and liquid nitrogen for testing and operations.

Saying the facility is "akin to an oil refinery" is a rather wrong picture as I understand the process.  It's an air compressor that compresses air sucked into a cylinder which is then cooled to remove the heat added in compressing the gasses, causing the air to liquefy.  The resultant liquid air is separated into O₂ and N₂ by controlling the temperature carefully around the boiling points, letting one boil off as the other remains liquid.  

If you've watched operations around Starship test flights you might have a feel for how much LOX and LN₂ they need for launches; I thought I had a feel for it but I was surprised.  SpaceX says they need more than 200 trucks of liquid nitrogen and oxygen delivered for each launch.  I know I've seen several trucks at a time going through the side gates into the area around the launch mount but saying 200 trucks worth surprised me.  Think of the fuel that gets consumed just getting those trucks to SpaceX's area on the island from where the current provider liquefies the gasses. 

With their application, SpaceX submitted a plan to mitigate expected negative effects on 865 square feet of dune vegetation and 20 cubic yards of dunes, as well as compensate for expected permanent impacts to 7,735 square feet of dune vegetation and 465 cubic yards of dunes. While the project will be built on property owned by SpaceX, the county holds the authority to manage the construction that affects Boca Chica's dunes. 

Of course, the liquid oxygen is used as the oxidizer in SpaceX's methane/oxygen (methalox) system - both Starship and Super Heavy.  They also use liquid nitrogen in many places around the operation; testing and other operations. 

April 5th, 2024 Super Heavy static firing.  LOX and Methane burning, with LN₂ in many places.  Image credit: SpaceX

Trump appoints Secretary of Transportation to run NASA

I'm surprised at this news, time tagged Wednesday, July 9 at 9:32 PM.  Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy has been installed as the temporary, new administrator of NASA.  Secretary Duffy, a cabinet-level position, currently (without NASA) oversees 55,000 employees across 13 agencies, including the Federal Aviation Administration.

"Sean is doing a TREMENDOUS job in handling our Country's Transportation Affairs, including creating a state-of-the-art Air Traffic Control systems, while at the same time rebuilding our roads and bridges, making them efficient, and beautiful, again," Trump wrote on his social media network Wednesday evening. "He will be a fantastic leader of the ever more important Space Agency, even if only for a short period of time."

In response to this post, Duffy wrote on X, "Honored to accept this mission. Time to take over space. Let’s launch."

The idea of the head of NASA being the secretary of transportation is a little odd, especially if, like me, you think NASA should get out of the transportation or "getting there" side of their business - how to get there when "there" is beyond the surface of our planet.  On the other hand, his experience in the air transportation regulatory world might help guide NASA to concentrating on the mission once they're at their destination and not on renting rockets.  Given that "getting there safely" is critical for a mission like going to Mars, it still pales in comparison to all the other planning required. 

Although he does not have a space background, Duffy has shown an interest in spaceflight since becoming FAA administrator. He watched from NASA Headquarters the Crew 9 mission's splashdown on March 18, which brought Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth after a prolonged stay in space. He also had expressed an interest in attending the forthcoming Crew 11 launch at the end of this month.

Officials at NASA were caught unaware by the announcement on Wednesday evening. They had been expecting the existing acting administrator, Janet Petro, to remain in place at least through the end of the year while a new nominee was put forth to lead NASA and confirmed by Congress.

Eric Berger at Ars Technica quotes his sources as saying Petro wasn't highly regarded in the Trump administration.  Another way of saying that is that she did nothing to be removed from her position.  It simply seems that Trump wanted someone he liked and trusted running NASA. This is probably a benefit for the agency, as it will give NASA a direct line to the president.  He and Trump are thought to have each other's phone numbers and can text each other 24/7.

Sean Duffy, US secretary of transportation, during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, July 8, 2025. Credit: Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images

As always, speculating to any depth on every imaginable subject is going to be rampant for a while.  He's going to rubber stamp Trump's budget cuts versus he's going to back someone else's ideas for NASA's budget.  As with all of other appointees, we can message our senators and representatives to approve or disapprove of Sean Duffy or for whatever level of NASA's spending you think is proper. 

It's Another Big Anniversary Day

Not the same kind of anniversary, but bigger than yesterday's - at least to me, because it's a mission that I think is one of the greatest accomplishments in human history.  

On July 9, 1979, Voyager 2 made its closest approach to Jupiter.  Forty-six years ago today, it came within 354,000 miles of the giant planet's cloud tops. 

Voyager 2 launched August 20, 1977 weeks before its partner in interstellar space Voyager 1 launched on September 5, 1977, and beat Voyager 2 to Jupiter, arriving in March of '79.  Voyager 2 discovered rings around Jupiter.  Both Voyager probes spotted volcanoes erupting on Jupiter's moon, Io.

Voyager 2 took longer to reach Jupiter than its sister spacecraft, Voyager 1, but also got to visit Uranus and Neptune. This made it the only spacecraft to visit either of the ice giants.

Over the years, I've written many pieces on the Voyagers, pretty much whenever a news article shows up.  As we're approaching the 48th anniversary of their launches, it's almost always about a new problem that has surfaced or how the previous new problem was resolved (latest post like this).  Among the ones I return to regularly is 2017's “Meet The Crew Retiring Along with Voyagers 1 and 2.”  I could almost quote large chunks of that post - one that's longer than most of what I post, I like it that much.  So let me conclude with a photo taken by Voyager 2 10 days before its closest approach to Jupiter, from the JPL site that updates on both Voyagers regularly. 

This color composite from Voyager 2 shows the Great Red Spot, Jupiter's iconic, long-lived storm, during the late Jovian afternoon. North of the Red Spot lies a curious darker section of the South Equatorial Belt (SEB), the belt in which the Red Spot is located. A bright eruption of material passing from the SEB northward into the diffuse equatorial clouds has been observed on all occasions when this feature passes north of the Red Spot. The remnants of one such eruption are apparent in this photograph. To the lower left of the Red Spot lies one of the three long-lived White Ovals. This photograph was taken on June 29, 1979, when Voyager 2 was nearly 6 million miles (9 million kilometers) from Jupiter. The smallest features visible are more than 106 miles (170 kilometers) across.
Image credit: NASA/JPL  [Bold added: SiG]

Only Small Stories

To be honest, it's getting hard to find interesting stories these days.  

The AX 4 mission is still on the ISS but I think it's in its last couple of days.  Things I can trace say they'll stay on the station 14 days, but they docked to the station on June 26, and 14 days is June 40th, uh, July 10th.  I don't know if those missions ever get extended and I don't see any word about "our mission ends on July x-didy x-th."  

On This Day in 2011, the last Space Shuttle mission launched.   I remember writing about it in my early days of blogging.  It was really a day of mixed emotions; sorry to see the program ending but knowing it simply had to end - and probably should have ended years earlier.  It was a spacecraft designed in the 1970s and flying for 31 years by then.  I knew the program was over-hyped and never achieved the costs to orbit, the launch frequency, or the operational safety it was sold with.

I ended the piece with this:

It's no secret - chances are everyone who visits here knows the Endarkenment approaches.  I know as well as anyone that the economy is on the verge of collapse, and the social order on the verge of disintegration.  Knowing it's coming doesn't make seeing it any easier, and like some of the other folks I read, it pains me.  The end of American manned space flight just seems like another sign of the approaching darkness.   

 Image credit

I imagine that this anniversary isn't getting spoken about much is partly these mixed emotions along with the fact that this is a 14 years anniversary not a 15, 20 or 25 year anniversary.  It's a "tweeny" milestone. 

And remember, in 2011, the Falcon 1 had only done a couple of test flights.  The Block 5 Falcon 9 was years in the future, along with the first manned flight (Bob and Doug) from the USA in May of 2020, and dozens of other everyday things we're completely used to. 

ULA Begins stacking 1st Vulcan for a National Security Mission

On Thursday July 3 Spaceflight Now reported that United Launch Alliance began the stacking process for their first Vulcan for a National Security mission, since the approval was recently granted.  ULA refers to this as Launch Vehicle on Stand or LVOS, and it's actually not the first time this third Vulcan was brought to SLC-41, ULA's launch complex on Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. 

It was previously readied in late October in support of the USSF-106 mission, the planned, first national security flight of a Vulcan rocket.

However, plans changed as the process of certifying Vulcan to fly these government payloads took longer than expected.

ULA President and CEO Tory Bruno announced the move Wednesday morning, July 2nd, on social media.

During the second of two certification flights for Vulcan, an issue with an insulator component on one of the Northrop Grumman-built GEM 63XL solid rocket motors caused a burn through less than a minute into the early October launch. The rocket was able to compensate for the anomaly, but it resulted in several more months of investigative work before the U.S. Space Force was able to close out its certification work.

In February, faced with delays from the Space Force certifying this vehicle, they pivoted to June 23rd's launch of ULA's Atlas V carrying Amazon's next 27 Kuiper satellites. 

“We stay integrated with the spacecraft teams and we were monitoring where [Amazon’s Project] Kuiper was and where the SF-106 partner was and so we made the decision that we had a little time there,” said Gary Wentz, the vice president of Government and Commercial Programs, during an interview with Spaceflight Now in early February.

“We knew we had some out-of-position work that we needed to do on the SF-106 booster. We had to replace some components and then subsequently we would retest those,” Wentz said. “And so, we elected to go ahead and LVOS that booster to get that work off the critical path so that we’re prepared to launch, whether it was 106 or Kuiper.”

Bruno had said the next two launches will be Vulcan NSSL Phase 2 missions: USSF-106 and USSF-87.  After those, they're planning is based on around two launches per month for the rest of the year, and at least tentatively alternating between Atlas V and Vulcan. 

Unlike most National Security launches, there's actually some word about at least one thing that will be flying on USSF-106:  a test of some concepts for a successor to the current GPS navigation satellites. 

The USSF-106 mission will carry multiple payloads, but to date, the only one that has been publicly identified is the Department of the Air Force’s Navigation Technology Satellite-3 (NTS-3). The prime contractor is L3Harris Technologies, which integrated an agile positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) payload onto an ESPAStar satellite bus from Northrop Grumman.

The mission is designed and coordinated by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). It follows in the footsteps of the Navy Research Laboratory’s NTS-1 and NTS-2 satellites that were precursors to the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation that began deploying in the 1970s.

Spaceflight Now dedicates at least a page the size of one my screens to discussing this NTS-3 payload (along with a photo of an interesting 1/3 scale model of it).  Considering the length I'd have to add and a guess at the amount of readers who would find it worth reading, I decided not to include it here, but just leave a link to the source article.

Small Space News Roundup 61

Because long holiday weekends can make it hard to find stories. 

Rocket Lab launches twice in two days

Rocket Lab is approaching the SpaceX cadence, not being three times a week, but that could well be because they don't have as many launch pad options. 

Rocket Lab's "Symphony in the Stars" mission lifted off on Saturday, June 28, from Mahia Peninsula in New Zealand. The mission was the second of two launches from the same launch site in less than 48 hours, a new record for turnaround time, the company said. It's a sign of a maturing company that Rocket Lab can turn between launches so quickly.

The ‘Symphony In The Stars’ mission lifted-off from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in Mahia, New Zealand on June 28^th (7:08 p.m./07:08 UTC) to deploy a single spacecraft to a 650km circular Earth orbit. The mission was the first of two dedicated launches for the new customer on Electron booked less than four months ago, with a second mission scheduled before the end of 2025.  

Rocket Lab has now completed four launches in June for commercial satellite constellation operators, underscoring Electron's consistent performance and rapid deployment capabilities as the world’s leading small launcher: the “Full Stream Ahead” mission on June 3^rd; “The Mountain God Guards” mission on June 11^th; “Get The Hawk Outta Here” launched on June 26^th UTC, and today’s “Symphony In The Stars” mission. 

Rocket Lab Founder and CEO, Sir Peter Beck, went a little far in his remarks (IMO) about the successful missions, saying, “Electron has demonstrated once again that it is the gold standard for responsive and reliable space access for small satellites. The future of space is built on proven performance, and Electron continues to deliver against a stacked launch manifest this year. Congratulations to the team on achieving its fastest launch turnaround yet between two missions from Launch Complex 1. This launch was also a quick-turn mission to meet our customer’s mission requirements, and we’re looking forward to doing it again later this year.” 

‘Symphony In The Stars’ was Rocket Lab’s tenth Electron mission of 2025.  They may well be the gold standard in the niche market of small satellites in orbits that the bigger rockets don't serve in ridesharing missions, but 10 missions in half the year is a small market.

ArianeGroup's Themis reusable demonstrator rocket arrives in Sweden

At the end of 2024, it was news that Ariane was looking to start testing the conceptual design of the Themis rocket this year - roughly three years after the first test dates they talked about which were in 2022.  Themis is patterned after the Falcon 9.  The prototype arrived in Sweden on Wednesday, July 2nd. 

The initial phase of the test campaign will include wet-dress rehearsals and hot-fire tests, to be followed by a "hop test" that will occur no earlier than the end of this year.

Hopping higher and higher ... Based on experience from these initial tests, the program aims to fly the Themis demonstrator on higher and progressively more advanced tests, not dissimilar to what SpaceX did with its Grasshopper vehicle a little more than a decade ago in Texas. Eventually, Europe aims to use lessons learned from Themis to develop a reusable rocket similar to the Falcon 9 vehicle. 

Europe’s first reusable rocket main stage demonstrator, Themis, is being transported to its launch pad at Esrange Space Centre, Sweden. Credit: ESA/ArianeGroup

Pretty much all the big names have been talking about developing reusable rockets because Reusability Changes Everything.  The ESA is lagging behind China.

We have an extrasolar interloper

I almost said, "don't look now, but we have an extrasolar interloper," but the whole idea is to look.  Just not now.  

Ok, let's start over.  

The buzz in the astronomy community is that astronomers have found the third object passing through our solar system that is not from, or part of, our solar system.  The interloper was first discovered on July 1st, as the intro text in this NASA JPL video says

The NASA-funded ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) survey telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first reported observations of comet 3I/ATLAS on July 1, 2025. Since the first report, additional observations from before the discovery were gathered from the archives of three ATLAS telescopes around the world and Caltech’s Zwicky Transient Facility at the Palomar Observatory in San Diego County, California. These “pre-discovery” observations extend back to June 14. The fast-moving comet, which originated outside our solar system around a different star, was discovered as a tiny speck moving across the vastness of space. When discovered it was about 410 million miles (670 million kilometers) away from the Sun, within the orbit of Jupiter.  

This is the third object determined to be from beyond our solar system that has been observed passing through our "neighborhood."  Astronomers expect to find more with new tools designed to identify near-Earth objects. 

The first of these was ʻOumuamuaʻ, discovered in 2017, when it was already moving away from the Sun. It was likely cigar-shaped, and astronomers could only speculate about its nature and age. A couple of years later, astronomers found another object, 2I/Borisov, that was determined to be a rogue comet passing through the Solar System. 

Early on Wednesday, the European Space Agency confirmed that the object, tentatively known as A11pl3Z when it was first cataloged, did indeed have interstellar origins. 

An engineer at the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, David Rankin, said recent estimates of the object's eccentricity are about 6. A purely circular orbit has an eccentricity value of 0, and anything above 1 is hyperbolic. Essentially, this is a very, very strong indication that A11pl3Z originated outside of the Solar System.

This visualization of the path of 3I-ATLAS shows it's on an essentially straight line path through the solar system; the bend is caused by the mass of the sun deflecting the path.  It shows that at its closest to the sun, the comet is just inside Mars' orbit.  Unfortunately, it appears that our planet will be on the opposite side of the Sun when the object makes its closest approach.

Projected path of the new interstellar object. Credit: Catalina Sky Survey

Getting back to the idea of looking but not right now, I'm going to keep an ear open for stories about this interloper.  See if it develops a tail as it approaches the sun.  I'm hopeful that it'll be worth watching with binoculars or a telescope, although that's not based on anything I've read so far.

Happy Independence Day - 2025

I've run this post almost every July 4th in the 15 years I've been blogging.  There were only two years I didn't and both of those posts were about problems that must have seemed really big. They not only were really big but still are (2012, 2014).  My lesson is that while they were important, the big picture is to remind ourselves of the history, and enjoy the day with family and friends.  The problems will still be here on the fifth. This year threw me a curve.  I ordinarily post this in the evening of the 3rd; yesterday our ISP was down for hours and we were completely isolated from the outside world.  I don't know when it first went down because we were out, but we had no connection from around 4:45 PM until after 10PM.  The recording on the tech support line said it was a large area outage. 

IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776

The Unanimous Declaration of the Thirteen United States of America

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation. 

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.  

He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them. 

He has refused to pass other laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation in the legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only. 

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures. 

He has dissolved representative houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people. 

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the legislative powers, incapable of annihilation, have returned to the people at large for their exercise; the state remaining in the meantime exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within. 

He has endeavored to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the laws for naturalization of foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migration hither, and raising the conditions of new appropriations of lands. 

He has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing judiciary powers. 

He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries. 

He has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance. 

He has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislature. 

He has affected to render the military independent of and superior to civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation: 

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us: 

For protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states: 

For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world: 

For imposing taxes on us without our consent: 

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of trial by jury: 

For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses: 

For abolishing the free system of English laws in a neighboring province, establishing therein an arbitrary government, and enlarging its boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule in these colonies: 

For taking away our charters, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments: 

For suspending our own legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever. 

He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us. 

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burned our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people. 

He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation. 

He has constrained our fellow citizens taken captive on the high seas to bear arms against their country, to become the executioners of their friends and brethren, or to fall themselves by their hands. 

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian savages, whose known rule of warfare, is undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions. 

In every stage of these oppressions we have petitioned for redress in the most humble terms: our repeated petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.  

Nor have we been wanting in attention to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, enemies in war, in peace friends. 

We, therefore, the representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by the authority of the good people of these colonies, solemnly publish and declare, that these united colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent states; that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the state of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as free and independent states, they have full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent states may of right do. And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.
 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 

 It has been shown mathematically that in a system with multiple parties, they either converge to two declared parties or through something like a coalition system they functionally become a two party system. In our society, we are too broken apart along party lines, despite the idea of one big “uniparty” now being the subject of millions of jokes and other comments.  In reality, the important choice is a question of whether or not the politico you're referring to is a follower of our founding documents or someone else's. Right now, it appears the biggest competing idea is a tyrannical minority in the name of some form equality, equity or some such nonsense. The biggest competitor is Karl Marx. People are not, and cannot be both free and equal. We are either free or forced into subjugation to create equal outcomes. Opportunities can be equal, like that word that used to be a goal but is now punishable: colorblind. Outcomes can't be. 

Enjoy your day no matter what you do. To those who serve - and have served - to provide this gift of liberty for us:  Thank You from the bottom of my heart.

We're just past the halfway point

Halfway through 2025, that is.  

A year has 365 days, and half of that is 182.5.  July 2nd is day number 183 of the year, so the midpoint of 182.5 was technically the afternoon of July 1, Tuesday.  Here in the Silicon Swamp, we're in the last days of the latest sunset of the year; the Sunrise/Sunset app I have on my phone (probably obsolete) shows our local sunset at 8:23 PM until Friday, July 4th, when it crosses the minute mark to 8:22 and sunsets get earlier until the winter solstice.  The changes in sunrise and sunset times are slow this time of year.  Sunrises started getting later back before the start of summer (solstice).  

There's another thing that's going to change soon, possibly after this Friday's Independence Day.  You'll start hearing talk about next year being the 250th anniversary of our founding - if you haven't heard it already.  Many of you will remember the 1976 Bicentennial hoopla which was pretty much constant and everywhere (a few other weirdos and I referred to it as the Bison Testicle).  The 250th anniversary is referred to as the Semiquincentennial, the Bisesquicentennial, or the Sestercentennial.  Wikipedia also offers America250 or the Quarter Millennium.

Closer to today than next July, National Hurricane Center predictions have had an area spread across peninsular Florida from the Gulf to the Atlantic off North Carolina for several days.  It was originally given a 20% chance of developing that bumped up to 40% yesterday.  In both cases, that was said to happen in the next seven days not in the next 48 hours.  Late today or tonight, that was changed to look like this, with none of the orange area (40% chance of development) over Florida or in the Gulf:

It's still rated at 40% chance of development, and the fact the Gulf of America has had the orange blob removed doesn't mean it can't reappear there in the next several days.

Our local forecast has shown this to be a rainy weekend since it first appeared on the 10 day forecast.  It sure doesn't look like a good weekend for barbecue or fireworks shows.  And the next SpaceX launch isn't until Monday night/Tuesday morning, July 8.

SpaceX piling up reasons to notice the next Starlink launch

We were faced with really unusual weather for this afternoon's launch from Launch Complex 39A on the Kennedy Space Center.  It not only didn't rain, we didn't even get clouded out from seeing the launch from the backyard.  The clouds didn't go overhead, but thoroughly absorbed the sunlight and kept the temperature pleasant.  The 5:04 PM (EDT) launch was a European weather satellite (video coverage) and appeared as flawless as you can imagine.  

Thanks to NextSpaceflight, we knew that there's a second launch early Wednesday morning, 1:29 AM EDT, from SLC-40, but what I didn't know until I went looking for details is that this mission appears ready to set a couple of new records for SpaceX's missions.

First, this will be the 500th launch of a Falcon 9.  Second, this booster will be their fleet leader in number of launches and booster tail number B1067 will be flying its 29th mission.  There are two boosters with 26 flights which puts B1067 two missions ahead of those two boosters now and three ahead when this mission succeeds.  

Typically, around 8-1/2 minutes after liftoff the booster targets a landing.  This landing will be on the droneship, ‘A Shortfall of Gravitas.’  If successful, this will be the 116th touchdown on this vessel and the 472nd booster landing to date.  

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stands at Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now

Spaceflight Now will be doing video coverage of this launch. 

Is the second New Glenn flight a launch to Mars?

In August of 2024 the expectation was that the first flight of Blue Origin's New Glenn would carry a NASA mission to Mars called ESCAPADE.  When the launch window started shrinking and there was no rocket to ride, ESCAPADE's mission was quietly dropped.  Rumors surfaced recently that the mission is looking toward launching later this year on the second New Glenn mission. 

The launch in August of '24 was never obtained for a variety of reasons, but it's now being mentioned as a payload for the second flight of New Glenn.  Since last year's launch window would have been one of the "almost every two years" minimum transit time to Mars windows, if it gets launched this fall, it will take longer to get to Mars, but it should able to get there safely.  The delay is almost good for ESCAPADE.

Had ESCAPADE launched last October, the spacecraft would now be nearing Mars and beginning scientific operations. However, because they missed the Mars "window" last year, they will have to wait for the next one to open late this year. Thus, the nominal plan involves a launch this fall, with the spacecraft now not reaching Mars until later in 2027.

Blue Origin has put together a tentative schedule with four New Glenn missions within the next year.  Ars Technica's sources cautioned that the manifest could be moved around due to the readiness of the next New Glenn vehicles and their payloads.

• New Glenn 2:  ESCAPADE (fall 2025)
• New Glenn 3:  Firefly's Elytra orbital transfer vehicle (end of 2025, early 2026)
• New Glenn 4:  Blue Moon MK1 lander (first half of 2026)
• New Glenn 5:  First batch of 49 Amazon Project Kuiper satellites (mid-2026)

The references to "first half of 2026" and "mid-2026" lead me to believe this is through around this time in 2026, so four missions within the next year.

Notably, the company plans to launch each new rocket as soon as it is ready to fly to gather data about the vehicle's performance, attempt to catch and reuse first stages, and move closer to a rapid launch cadence. Therefore, if a customer payload is not ready, the company has also developed an inspirational mission called "Cube for the Future," which appears to be part of the company's initiative to inspire future generations to pursue careers in science. This may also fly as a rideshare on one of the launches listed above.

Until the failure of the last four Starship test flights, I think the vast majority of industry watchers would have thought SpaceX had an unbreakable lead over Blue Origin and their attempt at a lunar lander.  Now?  I'm not that sure.  SpaceX's lead doesn't look so insurmountable. 

Dave Limp, Blue Origin CEO, left, and founder Jeff Bezos observe the first New Glenn rocket on its launch pad Wednesday at CCSFS.  Image credit: Jeff Bezos via Instagram.

Barring a major setback, it now appears highly likely that Blue Origin will beat SpaceX in landing a vehicle on the lunar surface. Due to the struggles with development of the Starship vehicle—whether on the ground or in space, the last four Starship upper stages have been lost before achieving a nominal success—some industry officials believe Blue Origin now has a realistic chance to compete with SpaceX in the effort to land NASA astronauts on the Moon as part of the Artemis Program.

Author Eric Berger points out that both companies are developing large, ambitious vehicles—SpaceX with Starship, called the Human Landing System - and Blue Origin with its MK2 lander—but Blue Origin's vehicle is somewhat less technically challenging.  Plus, while Elon Musk has been very vocal about his desire to make human life multiplanetary and "Occupy Mars," Jeff Bezos has come across as far more committed to a lunar program.  I can't imply any sort of understanding of these two guys, but if Bezos sees an opportunity to finally beat his rival in space, does he jump and go for it?  Could be...

Japan launches their final H-2A Rocket

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) on Saturday (June 28) conducted its 50th and final launch of the H-2A rocket, taking the GOSAT-GW dual-purpose satellite to space.  The mission lifted off from Yoshinobu Launch Complex (LP-1) at the Tenegashima Space Center in Japan at 12:33 p.m. EDT (1633 GMT; 1:33 a.m. June 29, local time in Japan). 

The Greenhouse Gas and Water Cycle Observation Satellite (GOSAT-GW) is the latest in Japan's efforts to observe changes in water cycles and greenhouse gases. GOSAT-GW has joined its predecessors in Earth orbit: GCOM-W2, which launched in 2012 and is known as "SHIZUKU," and GOSAT-1, which launched in 2009 and is known as "IBUKI." 

The H-2A built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has been the heart of the Japanese space missions practically since it was first flown in 2001.  It's capable of launching payloads to geosynchronous orbit or to the moon, and even launched the Akatsuki spacecraft to study Venus in 2010, though the spacecraft failed to properly enter Venusian orbit.  

During its nearly 25 years in operation, the rocket experienced only a single launch failure, giving the vehicle a 98% success rate. After 50 missions, the launch vehicle is now being retired to make way for Japan's H3 rocket, which offers comparable performance at a lower cost.

Japan launched its 50th and final H-2A rocket carrying the GOSAT-GW satellite on Saturday, June 28, 2025. (Image credit: JAXA)

Doing a search on "H-2A" I find a couple of mentions here in the blog, mostly missions that got some press in the stateside sources I use, and not much information.  If you'd like to watch a video of this last launch, there's an 85 minute video from JAXA on YouTube, set to start at about 60 seconds before the launch.  It's sorta bilingual with English narration during the active parts of the mission, which is the only way I could understand it.  I seem to have three articles on the H3, a failed first test flight in March of '23 and then the first two successful flights in July and November of '24.  

It's Field Day Weekend '25

As I write, it's Saturday afternoon the 28th, both EDT and UTC.  It's the last weekend in June and that marks the weekend of the year when American ham radio operators conduct the biggest operating event of the year that isn't a contest: Field Day.  Strictly speaking, Field Day (or FD) is an event organized by the American Radio Relay League, or ARRL, so people who are opposed to the ARRL for whatever reason look down on the event.  Saying it's not a contest is one of those things that's technically true, by definition, but people submit scores and their logs for bragging rights.  FD runs from 1800 hours UTC on Saturday (2PM EDT) to 2059 Sunday ( 4:59:59 PM EDT).  

The purpose of Field Day is to get hams comfortable operating in different and austere conditions, as we often do while doing emergency communications.  The ARRL describes it like this:

Field Day is ham radio's open house. Every June, more than 40,000 hams throughout North America set up temporary transmitting stations in public places to demonstrate ham radio's science, skill and service to our communities and our nation. It combines public service, emergency preparedness, community outreach, and technical skills all in a single event. Field Day has been an annual event since 1933, and remains the most popular event in ham radio.

I've operated many FD events in my 49 years as a ham.  The first time was with a couple of the friends who helped me get my license.  We got permission to park a van in an unused field at the junior college, one guy borrowed a generator from his company, and we ran random length wires into nearby trees.  It was the first time I encountered the law of Field Days in Florida: it's gonna rain on Saturday.  The rain will be a thunderstorm. Over the years, I've repeated that in small groups and large club stations running several stations along with temporary antenna towers and multiple AC generators.  I've also operated FD with a fixed, permanently installed station, just to hand out points to the guys in the tents outside (in Field Day lingo, that's a class 1D station; one transmitter running on permanent line power.)  Because air conditioning.

An ARRL picture from FD 2019. It looks like (probably) three stations are visible

If you're expecting to put up stations if/when the SHTF, there are good lessons to teach yourself in putting up a FD station.  I should have mentioned FD earlier, but any day can be field day if you just want to learn how to put up a station, or operate portable.  The terms to look up are POTA - Parks on the Air - and SOTA - Summits on the Air.  These are popular operating events in which people take a station to a park or mountain summit, generally with battery power and Field Day-type antennas.  They are almost always low power (QRP).  You just don't get the advantage of having experienced guys around to show you how it's done.   This is something YouTube can be good for.  

Small Space News Story Roundup 60

It has been a while since I've done one of these.

Mexico looking at ways to interfere with SpaceX's Texas operations. 

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is looking for ways to hamper or slow SpaceX operations at Starbase Boca Chica after SpaceX's Starship 36 disintegrated in a giant fireball earlier this month as it was being fueled for a test-firing of its engines, The New York Times reports (warning for extreme subscription nagging).  No one was injured in the accident which rained debris on the beaches of the northern Mexican state of Tamaulipas.  

Collision course ..."We are reviewing everything related to the launching of rockets that are very close to our border," Sheinbaum said at a news conference Wednesday. If SpaceX violated any international laws, she added, "we will file any necessary claims." Sheinbaum's leftist party holds enormous sway around Mexico, and the Times reports she was responding to calls to take action against SpaceX amid a growing outcry among scientists, regional officials, and environmental activists over the impact that the company's operations are having on Mexican ecosystems. SpaceX, on the other hand, said its efforts to recover debris from the Starship explosion have been "hindered by unauthorized parties trespassing on private property." SpaceX said it requested assistance from the government of Mexico in the recovery and added that it offered its own resources to help with the cleanup.

You picked a fine time to swing by Apophis 

(Sung to the tune of "Lucille" by Kenny Rogers - yeah the extra syllable in Apophis is awkward) 

Chances are readers here are among the people most aware of the approaching close fly-by of Earth by the asteroid Apophis in a bit under four years (April of 2029).  Once the Osiris-REx probe completed the mission that brought samples of asteroid Bennu back to Earth, it was re-purposed to be called OSIRIS-Apophis Explorer (OSIRIS-APEX), which will take the spacecraft on several more loops around the Sun.  Soon after Apophis passes less than 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) from Earth in 2029, the OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft will enter orbit around the asteroid for more than a year of close-up observations.  

An aspect of this mission that's suddenly getting some attention is to use a satellite to measure properties of Apophis, creating a detailed model of the asteroid's interior.   

"This is a remarkable opportunity," said Bobby Braun, who leads space exploration for the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, in an interview. "From a probability standpoint, there’s not going to be another chance to study a killer asteroid like this for thousands of years. Sooner or later, we’re going to need this knowledge." 

What about OSIRIS-APEX?  Ars Technica is reporting that the mission has been flagged to be dropped in NASA's 2026 budget.  One wonders if anyone who wants a mission to study Apophis has ever talked with anyone who knows the budget.  I would guess that a custom designed probe could be made to outperform OSIRIS-APEX, but that using the one that's currently on a planned trajectory to rendezvous with Apophis seems like it has to be cheaper and easier than creating a new probe from scratch. 

Conceptual rendering of OSIRIS-Apex on asteroid Apophis. Image credi: NASA.

As usual, more info at the source article on this subject.

SLS Program fighting to stay on the Gravy Train

It wasn't a big headline story, but the SLS program ran a couple of tests in the last week in an effort to keep the program alive.  We know from talk essentially since Trump's inauguration that he has not been a fan of the program.  During talk about how the Artemis moon landings ought to happen, we learned that the administration wants to end SLS after just three launches, while the preliminary text of a bill making its way through Congress would extend it to five flights. 

For the second time in less than a week, NASA test-fired new propulsion hardware Thursday that the agency would need to keep SLS alive. Last Friday, a new liquid-fueled RS-25 engine ignited on a test stand at NASA's Stennis Space Center in Mississippi. The hydrogen-fueled engine is the first of its kind to be manufactured since the end of the Space Shuttle program. This particular RS-25 engine is assigned to power the fifth flight of the SLS rocket, a mission known as Artemis V.

Then, on Thursday of this week, NASA and Northrop Grumman test-fired a new solid rocket booster (SRB) in Utah. This booster features a new design that NASA would use to power SLS rockets beginning with the ninth mission, or Artemis IX. The motor tested on Thursday isn't flight-worthy. It's a test unit that engineers will use to gather data on the rocket's performance.

The new SRB is referred to as BOLE for Booster Obsolescence and Life Extension.  While the test of the new production liquid fueled RS-25 apparently went as planned, the solid rocket booster self-destructed in under two minutes, less time than it's supposed to run.  You can watch it in this video that's set to start within 10 seconds of the explosion.  A strange appearance before the engine bell disappears is visible at 22:12 on the time line.  Few seconds later a large blast is visible.

We've covered this material many times, but the RS-25 engines leftover from the Shuttle era are running out and the replacements are prohibitively expensive (a two-word description of the entire SLS).  

Recognizing that shuttle-era parts will eventually run out, NASA signed a contract with Aerojet Rocketdyne to set the stage for the production of new RS-25 engines in 2015. NASA later ordered an initial batch of six RS-25 engines from Aerojet, then added 18 more to the order in 2020, at a price of about $100 million per engine. NASA and its contractor aim to reduce the cost to $70 million per engine, but even that figure is many times the cost of engines of comparable size and power: Blue Origin's BE-4 and SpaceX's Raptor.

Some old data that I've posted before says the BE-4 engines cost less than $20 million each while SpaceX is working to push the similarly powerful Raptor rocket engine costs even lower, to less than $1 million per engine.  Yes that means for four engines of the same power as the RS-25, SLS is running $400 million, BE-4s cost $80 million and I'll just say SpaceX is cheaper still and I won't go with the $4 million number implied there.  

An engineering evaluation booster exploding is not an indictment of the SLS program, but it's not a very good thing, either.  

An uncontained plume of exhaust appeared near the nozzle of an SLS solid rocket booster moments before its nozzle was destroyed during a test-firing Thursday.  Credit: NASA

EU Space company lost contact with its test capsule on first test flight

The Exploration Company is a European Union space company working to develop orbital spacecraft for cargo, and eventually humans.  They had their first test flight early this week, and apparently was progressing well until they lost contact with their "Mission Possible" vehicle.  It powered up and flew successfully in orbit before making a controlled reentry into Earth's atmosphere.  However between reentry into the atmosphere and landing, they lost contact with vehicle a few minutes before splashdown. 

In an update on LinkedIn Tuesday morning, the company characterized the test flight as a partial success—and a partial failure.

"The capsule was launched successfully, powered the payloads nominally in-orbit, stabilized itself after separation with the launcher, re-entered and re-established communication after black out," the company said in a statement. "We are still investigating the root causes and will share more information soon. We apologize to all our clients who entrusted us with their payloads."

That second paragraph leads off with saying they launched, powered on the payloads nominally in-orbit, and so on ... but especially note that it says, "...re-entered and re-established communication after black out."  That implies that the vehicle got through the most thermally challenging part of reentry into Earth's atmosphere and at least have some indications of the spacecraft's handling and ability to withstand maximum heating.  

 Following this, according to the company's timeline for Mission Possible, the capsule's parachutes were due to deploy at a velocity between Mach 0.8 and Mach 0.6. The parachutes were selected for their "proven flight heritage," the company said, and were procured from US-based Airborne Systems, which provides parachutes used by SpaceX’s Dragon, Boeing's Starliner, and other spacecraft.

Given when the spacecraft was lost, it seems most likely that there was a problem with the deployment of the drogue or main parachutes.

When you see the capsule, you might get a feeling of deja vu, or having been here before.  It's a ringer for the Apollo program command module or the Orion capsules:

The Mission Possible vehicle is seen during assembly.  Image credit: The Exploration Company

Mission Possible was a 2.5-meter diameter demonstration vehicle that was among the larger payloads launched Monday afternoon on SpaceX's Transporter 14 mission from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The mission sought to test four primary areas of spaceflight: structural performance in orbital flight, surviving reentry, autonomous navigation, and recovery in real-world conditions. It only clearly failed in this final task, recovering the vehicle within three days to return on-board payloads to customers.

You might recall having read about Mission Possible and founder Hélène Huby, this program was featured in a story back in last November.  In an interview then, Huby said Mission Possible was developed at a cost of about $20 million in 2.5 years, in addition to $10 million for the rideshare launch on the Falcon 9 rocket.  At the time, she said Mission Possible was on track to launch this summer, and the company met this timeline. 

The company has bigger goals, one of which is literally a bigger version of this vehicle, to be called Nyx.  

To date, the company has raised more than $230 million and plans to use much of that for the development of Nyx, which could fly as early as 2028 and focus on cargo delivery missions to low-Earth orbit. By demonstrating this capability, Huby said her company would like to secure funding from the European Space Agency to develop a crew-rated version of the spacecraft and a vehicle to return cargo from the Moon. 

I'd like to wish Hélène Huby and her team luck with that. I have a rather strong memory of reading that the European Space Agency had said they were of the opinion that if they were to develop reusable rockets that the EU countries wouldn't put up with them. In other words, this is just a jobs program with some "feel good" aspects to it. I hope they recover from that.

The On Again, Off Again Ax-4 is On Again

The on again, off again Axiom Space Ax-4 mission to the ISS is back on.  Scheduled liftoff time is 2:31 AM EDT Wednesday morning (6/25).  NASA Video is set to go live at 1:40 AM.  SpaceX's own coverage goes live before that; SpaceX says, "A live webcast of this mission will begin about two hours prior to liftoff" so about 12:30 AM EDT. 

I'm hoping that after this mission - or even just after this launch - someone explains the several cancellations and reschedules.

Ax-4 crew.  Image credit: SpaceX 

Can Amazon get their Kuiper internet satellites in orbit?

That's the first question and a relatively easy way to ask it; the harder version is "can Amazon get their Kuiper internet satellites into orbits fast enough to be a player in the satellite-based internet access world?"

What prompted this thought was this morning's 6:54 AM launch of the ULA Atlas V carrying Amazon's next 27 satellites into Low Earth Orbit.  It's worth pointing out that this was only the second launch of a full load of operational satellites for Amazon's Project Kuiper, a network envisioned to become a competitor to SpaceX's Starlink.  The first launch of a batch like this was Monday, April 28th, eight weeks ago.

Amazon is moving toward a goal of 3232 satellites in low-Earth orbit, enabling coverage of most of the populated world. Back in April of '22, word broke that Amazon had chosen "everybody except SpaceX" to launch "the majority" of their 3,236-satellite Project Kuiper constellation.  Amazon had contracted for 68 rocket flights from United Launch Alliance, Arianespace, and Blue Origin.  Before those 68, they signed on for five Atlas V launches of the initial satellites in that eventual constellation.  The first two (prototype) Kuiper prototype satellites launched Friday, October 6th on an Atlas V after being swapped to it from the continually-slipping out maiden flight of Vulcan centaur.  

Amazon has procured more than 80 launches with four companies to put all of these satellites into orbit. ULA won the lion's share of the launch contracts to deploy more than half of the Kuiper constellation. Amazon purchased the last nine Atlas V rockets before ULA retires the vehicle in favor of the newer Vulcan rocket. Shortly thereafter, Amazon signed a contract for 38 Vulcan flights, each of which ULA says will deliver 45 Kuiper satellites into orbit. 

Europe's Ariane 6 rocket is under contract for 18 missions with Kuiper satellites. The New Glenn from Blue Origin, owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, will launch at least 12 times to add satellites to the Kuiper network. Amazon has a contract option with Blue Origin for up to 15 additional New Glenn launches.

SpaceX's Falcon 9 was contracted for a number of launches as well, also back in 2023.  The Falcon 9 is the only rocket that has actually flown at the kind of cadence envisioned for the Kuiper network.  The F9 currently flies at an average rate of once every two days, primarily on missions with SpaceX's own Starlink broadband satellites.

Amazon's competitor will launch the next batch of Kuiper satellites on a Falcon 9 as soon as next month. Those satellites are already at Cape Canaveral for final launch preparations, suggesting that Amazon is finally overcoming difficulties in activating its spacecraft factory in Kirkland, Washington. A source recently told Ars that satellites for the fourth Kuiper launch are undergoing final testing in Kirkland. For the first time, Amazon will soon be in a position of waiting on rockets before launching them.

One of the  main criteria that Starlink was designed to meet is latency - largely set by the amount of time radio signals take to travel from Earth to the satellites.  As with everything involved in the design of systems like radios, there are compromises.  To get the lower latency, the satellites need to be lower to minimize the time for the radio signals to go to/from higher orbits, but being lower limits the circular area they can communicate with, so there need to be more satellites in orbit to get the desired coverage.  As of May 30, 2025, there are currently 7,578 Starlink satellites in orbit, of which 7,556 are working.  They have been reported to have filed paperwork with an international regulator to loft up to 30,000 additional spacecraft.  They will be launching their own orbital internet for a long time to put up 30,000 satellites 20 (or so) at a time. 

With the Kuiper constellation containing the 3232 number of satellites quoted above, they don't have to put as many satellites in LEO as SpaceX does, but ULA is working on expanding their launch capabilities. 

ULA aims to double its launch capacity at Cape Canaveral to meet Amazon's demands. And Amazon is investing heavily to make it happen, committing $2 billion to pay for the expansion of ULA's manufacturing and launch capacity, with around $500 million going toward upgrades at the Florida launch base.

United Launch Alliance's Atlas V rocket soars through sky over Cape Canaveral, Florida, shortly after sunrise Monday. Credit: United Launch Alliance

I started this post by asking  "can Amazon get their Kuiper internet satellites into orbits fast enough to be a player in the satellite-based internet access world?"  I don't know.  It sounds like they're doing well but the only player mentioned here that seems to have demonstrated they can do it is not United Launch Alliance.