Yes, help is coming, but don't hold your breath.
By now, most people have heard of the chip shortages affecting US car and truck production, as well as everything else. There are reports that some models of cars and pickups are completely out of production while others are in limited production. This week brings some good news from Electronic Design. US microprocessor giant Intel has said it's going to allocate some production capability at various facilities to the automotive sectors.
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said he plans to commit some production at one of its largest non-US fabs for the automotive sector as it moves into a growing market that the global chip shortage has ravaged for months.
The Santa Clara, California-based company is reserving an unspecified amount of output at its Ireland fab to roll out chips for auto makers that urgently need them, the CEO said on Monday at the IAA auto conference. Intel would not say when it plans to start churning out automotive-grade chips from the plant–its largest 300-mm fab outside the US. The factory specializes in chips based on its previous generation 14-nm process.
Those two numbers mean very different things: 300 mm is the diameter of the silicon crystal that is sliced into wafers for chip production while 14 nm is the size of the smallest features on the chips. That's a small geometry size and very advanced process. The problem is that most of the automotive chips are using relatively much older processes and larger sized processes than 14 nm. (a 300 mm wafer is 11.8 inches in diameter; 14 nm is 14 billionths of a meter or 551 billionths of an inch). We've gone into a lot of this before, most recently about a month ago. While processes like the Intel 14 nm fab are the glamor side of the industry, the vast majority of parts fabricated use larger geometries. 14nm and smaller geometries produce less than 15% of world semiconductor output.
IEEE Spectrum, the closest thing to a general readership publication the Institute
for Electrical and Electronics Engineers puts out,
runs an article on the chip shortage saying the auto industry is primarily using much larger geometries, like 40nm and larger.
Chips for the automotive sector are made using processes intended to meet safety criteria that are different from those meant for other industries. But they are still fabricated on the same production lines as the analog ICs, power management chips, display drivers, microcontrollers, and sensors that go in everything else. “The common denominator is the process technology is 40 nanometers and older," says Mario Morales, vice president, enabling technologies and semiconductors at IDC.
40 nm geometries are mature, 15 year old technologies, and larger geometries even older. The bind here is that when the fabrication facilities for the bigger geometries were being built, they were designed around 200 mm wafers. Those fabs produce smaller numbers of parts on a wafer and those wafers, like the larger geometry parts are still available, but in smaller quantities.
It sounds like the industry needs more investment in the older technology fabs, because those 40 nm fabs still produce useful parts and the market for them is expanding. IEEE reports that by 2022, 10 new fabs for larger geometry parts will be online, and the industry is dumping money into the problem.
More than 40 companies will increase capacity by more than 750,000 wafers-per-month from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2022. The long-term trend to the end of 2024 is for a 17 percent increase in capacity for 200-mm facilities. Spending on equipment for these fabs is set to rise to $4.6 billion in 2021 after crossing the $3-billion mark in 2020 for the first time in years, SEMI says. But then spending will drop back to $4 billion in 2022. In comparison, spending to equip 300-mm fabs is expected to hit $78-billion in 2021.
Bear in mind that these are large, specialized, factories and once the factory is built, the parts don't just start being available immediately. The time for a wafer to be made into parts ready to ship varies but can go from a couple to several months. (BTW, John Wilder at Wilder Wealthy and Wise has done a couple of interesting posts on the drawbacks to the wonderful benefits that such specialization brings us. Worth your time to read. Part 1 and Part 2.)
While Intel's commitment to producing automotive-market chips on its Irish 40 nm fab is good and will more easily address processor shortages for cars than the bigger analog parts, the answer is to not forget that those larger geometry parts still have very large demands and some investment in augmenting those plants or keeping them going is worthwhile. Intel has predicted chips will account for 20% of the bill of materials (BOM) cost of a premium vehicle by 2030, up from 4% in 2019. That phenomenal growth is expected to continue. While the industry watchers predict the worst of the shortage situations will begin to be resolved in the third or fourth quarter of 2021, it could take much of 2022 for the resulting chips to work their way through the supply chain to products.
Something I saw before retiring from IT - management always went "OOH, SHINY" at the latest tech craze and totally forgot about the mature side. Then they panicked when their neglect started creating issues.ReplyDelete
It's about time. I was wondering when other companies, seeing the ChiComs stumble (and the internal economic collapse that is now beginning to tear the guts out of their, well, economy and the elimination of the capitalists that is also starting due to Xi wanting to return to Mao's ways) would pick up the slack.ReplyDelete
Thanks for posting this, SiG. I haven't kept up on the industry in the last 4 years, and if it wasn't for you posting these, I'd **really** have my head in the sand....ReplyDelete
There is another uncertainty for "chip" availability and that is the ChiComs possible attack of Taiwan. I understand that the Taiwanese are the largest supplier of semiconductors in the world. It is rumored that they may destroy the major semiconductor fabs if the mainland Chinese attack. Then too the fabs may just get destroyed in the attack.ReplyDelete
I’ve thought that the Taiwan Semiconductor plants might well be what China wants as much as anything. Which implies Taiwan might let it be known that they’ll blow the fabs if China seems ready to move.Delete
One of those articles said China has some of those bigger, old-tech geometry fabs that are under-utilized and could be brought back to life.
That's a great thought - there's a double-edged sword in being able to destroy the factories. I seem to remember a line from Dune . . . .Delete
It seems reasonable that a plant that can process 14 nm parts can process 40 mn parts too. Only the masks change (or, they get less reduced in size). And if they process 300 mm silicon, they can process more of them. Or they could reduce the automotive chips to 14 nm, making them smaller (and assuming they don't need to dissapate a lot of heat). Just use longer bond wires and put them in the same chip carriers.ReplyDelete
Better yet, reduce the number of chips in the cars. I'll bet my 1974 Toyota didn't have any! Great car, too, with great gas mileage.
But your Toyota did not comply with current EPA regulations. Which means no manufacturer would be allowed to sell it today in the US!Delete
And I would also bet it didn't have the 52 airbags which are required for current vehicles!!!