Let's Just Call It Dmitry Grogozin Week

The statements out of Grogozin that we talked about earlier in the week almost smelled of vodka.  Through the monitor's screen.  They were irrational to the point that I had to think that's what influenced the head of the Russian Space Corporation, Roscosmos to come up with them.  Late yesterday, I learned of more. 

One of the innocent victims of the world's reaction to Russia invading Ukraine is a company called OneWeb.  A quick search of the blog shows that I've never mentioned them before, but OneWeb is company that's in the Internet connection business, and which is partially owned by the British and Indian governments.  The company aims to compete in the same market as SpaceX Starlink providing satellite internet connections.  

Choose OneWeb’s Low Earth Orbit network for fibre-like connectivity where fibre cannot easily reach. Make OneWeb part of your solution to integrate, manage, flex, and scale better connectivity.

To my way of looking at their situation, they're so far behind that it's hard to think they can really be a competitor.  Maybe they could be in some restricted area of the Earth.  While Starlink isn't fully able to meet their availability goals, they have about 2000 satellites in orbit; OneWeb has 428.  They were scheduled to launch 34 satellites into orbit today, until Grogozin and Russia cancelled the flight.  Then Rogozin took a rather unusual move on top of that.  

But on Wednesday the chief of Russia's space program, Dmitry Rogozin, issued two demands before acceding to the launch. One, he said, OneWeb must guarantee that its satellites will not be used for military purposes. And two, the UK government must give up its ownership of OneWeb.

OneWeb had contracts with Roscosmos to launch the remainder of OneWeb's planned total of 648 satellites for its initial constellation.  They had planned to start selling service by the end of the year.  This launch may have been criticized by media for giving business to Russia, had they launched today, but OneWeb might have considered it better than letting the satellites sit on the ground indefinitely.  As of the reporting I'm able to see, I don't know that Roscosmos has even agreed to return the 34 satellites they were supposed to launch today.

The demands that Rogozin issued seem laughable.  Eric Berger at Ars Technica cites reports that OneWeb has already pitched national defense agencies, including the UK, on using OneWeb's satellites for enhanced decision-making during military activities. Second, it's a bit of a reach to think the UK government would agree to Russian demands about what it does, and does not, own.  Especially now.

OneWeb really seems to be in quite a hole here.  First off, their plans for the year are back to zero progress.  Worse, there is nobody that comes to mind with the launch capacity to replace the Soyuz rockets that Roscosmos was going to use.  

Europe has no spare launch capacity, with all of its remaining Ariane 5 launches spoken for, and the Ariane 6 rocket is probably at least two years away from having operational capacity. Last October OneWeb and India's space program, ISRO, reached an agreement to use Indian rockets for future satellite launches. But these rockets have not demonstrated a high launch cadence since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is not clear whether India's PSLV or GSLV Mk. III vehicles will have the capacity to launch several batches of OneWeb satellites in the next 12 to 24 months.

The Soyuz-2.1b rocket booster with a Fregat upper stage carrying British OneWeb satellites being transported to the launch pad at the Baikonur Cosmodrome.  Roscosmos photo from TASS.  Photo taken March 2, 2022.