Saturday, February 28, 2026

Small Space News Story Roundup 78

Because small news is better than snow news. Or something like that 

Rocket Lab's first Neutron launch slips to Q4 

Back in November, Rocket Lab announced the first launch of their Neutron rocket - closer to a competitor to Falcon 9 than their Electron rocket - would slip out in schedule, quoting mid-year or summer here on the east coast, where their Wallops Island (Virginia) launch facilities are. They just pushed it out again.

As part of its quarterly earnings guidance update on Thursday, Rocket Lab provided a new launch target for the medium-lift Neutron rocket. Following the failure of first stage tank during testing, Neutron’s first launch is now targeted for “Q4 2026,” the company said. 

I'll make that Q4 or later. 

Let's be honest. Getting a new rocket tested and to the first launch is full of difficulties and I'm sure those are accompanied by learning things that have never come up before. Eric Berger of Ars Technica (this is from their weekly Rocket Report) reports:

In its news release regarding the fourth quarter of 2025 earnings, the company said it completed successful qualification for Neutron’s thrust structure and entered the qualification phase for the interstage, and successfully qualified Neutron’s Hungry Hippo fairing and delivered it to the Assembly and Integration Complex in Virginia. I hate to do it, but I’m afraid that I am compelled to invoke Berger’s Law for rockets on this one, which states, “If a rocket is predicted to make its debut in Q4 of a calendar year, and that quarter is six or more months away, the launch will be delayed.” Since its inception in 2022, the law has been undefeated. 

This is difficult to say, but it looks like Artemis II will fly before Vulcan can

Not really big news - you've probably realized this already - but think about it this way: it means SLS is better than Vulcan. Wait!... SLS is better than another rocket? Artemis II (flying on SLS) is widely considered off until April at the earliest, and that includes that April is the only month on that calendar I've been showing (for example) that has 6 possible launch days. Those are the 1st, 3rd through 6th and the 30th.  

Meanwhile, in the post about Vulcan being grounded (two days ago as I type), the US Space Force officer in charge of the project, Col. Eric Zarybnisky said, “This is going to be a many-months process as we work through the exact technical issue that happened and the corrective actions we need to make sure, we need to take, to make sure this doesn’t happen again,”

The calendar of possible Artemis II launch days doesn't go past April 30, but a few days in early May seem to be likely as well as days in June and July. I'd honestly be surprised if Vulcan can fly before the fourth quarter.

An anomalous plume, top right, is visible from one of the Vulcan’s solid rocket motors during the fourth Vulcan launch on Feb. 12, 2026. Image: Adam Bernstein/Spaceflight Now.



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