Looks like it's time for the BIG test flight

Word has started getting around that the next Starship Flight Test, FT-15, will be set up to attempt recovery of both the Super Heavy booster - which has already been done - and Starship, which has never been attempted. 

During their recent 3rd quarter financial update meeting, both Elon Musk and SpaceX president and Chief Operating Officer, Gwynne Shotwell, provided new performance targets for the vehicle. 

It has been a little more than three weeks since the 14th test flight of the massive rocket, which largely went well despite some issues with the Raptor rocket engine. SpaceX has gleaned enough data from that test, Musk said, to attempt a catch of both the Super Heavy first stage of the rocket and the Starship upper stage on the next flight.

Musk said he believes success is “more likely than not” for these attempts, but he added the company is hardware rich if there are failures. Both catches would happen at the company’s launch site in South Texas, Starbase. SpaceX is currently targeting November for this 15th test flight.

While the technical hurdles are well-known, and it's hard to imagine that after almost 700 Falcon 9 flights there's any company that knows more about landing things like this, there's at least one new aspect to this mission. Since Starship has to fly over Mexican territory to return to Starbase, the Mexican equivalent of the FAA will have to approve the mission. 

“We have had significant constructive engagement with the FAA, and we expect the license for our Flight 15 to include return to launch site and tower catch for both stages,” Shotwell said.

SpaceX is doing all they can to increase the Starship flight cadence. At the start of the month, the long version of the NextSpaceflight "next launches" page had two Starship flights, one in Texas and the other from Cape Canaveral SFS shown as a Starlink mission (so a "working flight"). Now there's a second Starship launch from Texas between those two, also shown as a "working flight" full of Starlink Satellites. Saying it's "between" might imply a definite order, but without specific NET dates in order, I wouldn't interpret it that way. Both are shown as NET 2026. Which includes now.

After this, COO Shotwell said they're going to start working on the orbital refueling flights they'll need to be doing soon for Artemis “early” next year.  

The company will also seek to complete a long-delayed refueling test of Starship early in 2027. This Starship-to-Starship refueling demonstration is an important milestone for SpaceX and NASA to prove the viability of Starship being refueled in low-Earth orbit for lunar missions.

Refueling on this scale has never been done before, and the company needs to get data on the efficiency of such transfers and the rate of boil-off of liquid oxygen and methane in space. This data will refine projections for how many launches are needed to support a Starship landing on the Moon for NASA as part of the Artemis Program.

For SpaceX, the first priority is reaching a high flight cadence for Starship and pushing the boundaries of vehicle reuse to enable it. Musk says he has high confidence they'll be able to catch Starship, but one flawless, successful catch would silence a lot of critics. He has also said he expects to reach a “weekly” flight cadence during the first half of 2027 and to launch twice weekly during the second half of the year. The key will be how quickly Starship can be restored to flight ready. 

“The rate at which we launch Starship will increase dramatically as we solve rapid and complete reusability,” Musk said. “At first there will be a little bit of refurbishment that’s needed between each flight, and we’ll iron out the need for any refurbishment such that you can immediately land the rocket and launch it again, just like an airplane.”

That’s the vision, at least. Achieving complete reusability with an orbital rocket has never been done before, so SpaceX’s engineering team will undoubtedly face some significant hurdles. Over time, however, they are likely to get close to the vision of launching, landing, and reflying rockets.

SpaceX's 14th Starship test flight on Monday morning, Sept. 28 from Starbase, Texas, looking north along the gulf coast. Image Credit: SpaceX

EDIT to Add 10/22/26 11:15AM: Correct date in the image caption. Short circuit in the headset.