Cartoon of the Day

The day was 11/30, but it's still good.  From Wiley at NonSequitur who is frequently good for a grin.

Tomorrow is 9 days from when I posted the Financial Times article that the Eurozone has 9 Days Left.  While it's still possible some event may force them over the edge, it looks like the "rumors of the EU's death are greatly exaggerated".   A day or two after posting that, I heard that they've put off the big bank deal until December 19th, so the EU should survive till then.  Over the weekend, I posted that Kyle Bass video that said the EU is going to collapse very soon, and there's no way out.  While driving home today, I heard Stuart Varney opine that this Friday (the 9th), they would pass some sort of financial austerity, and by Monday the streets of the European capitals would be burning.   Then tonight, Jim Rogers, the very successful and famous investor, was on Glenn Beck's GBTV show for most of an hour.  He wouldn't give a date but talked about the coming collapse of the EU and how it will slam the entire world. 

How do you know a time to be prepared for?  The fact that there has to be an end to the exponential increases in spending is simply unavoidable.  Math is math is math.  That there will be a collapse may not be mathematically unavoidable, but the character of none of the people involved lead me to think a collapse will be avoided.

On the 4th, Borepatch, whom I respect tremendously, posted the question of whether folks in our corner of the world are being too pessimistic.  As an engineer, I've always thought that reality is what it is, and I'm neither optimist nor pessimist but a realist.  As a kid of 6th or 7th grade, someone tried the "is the glass half full or half empty?" bit on me, and I instinctively answered, "it's half a glass" and never told them what they wanted to hear.  The way my mind worked, if water was being poured in, it's half full, if it was being poured out, it's half empty.  Without that information, you can't know.  (I wasn't much more normal at "if a tree falls in the forest..." either)

It seems obvious to me that those of us in the "gun culture 2.0" crowd, who war game out in our minds what steps to take if someone assaults us on the street or in our homes, and who invest in training and preparing for bad things; it seems we are the sort of people who will look at the broader world and prepare for bad times we see coming.  Being metaphorically shot in the back by the Fed destroying our life's savings may not hurt as intensely as actually being shot in the back with live ammo, but it will be like that same amount of pain on the installment plan.  The same pain, and probably the same mortality, spread out over years.

Jim Rogers also said that by 2020 America will essentially be gone.  Life is going to be more expensive, and harder.  He said food prices are going to skyrocket and then said it a few more times for emphasis. I remember saying once that no one would be more surprised than me if I turn around and it's 2020, and find we avoided the collapse; life is the same as it is in 2011 except I'm retired living a peaceful life in the land of liberty, playing by day and gradually working my way through antique Mountain House food. 

Don't worry - you have lots of time. 

(image from Preparedness Pro)

Obama Claims He's Pro-Israel

I honestly don't remember if I laughed out loud at the idea or just shook my head in disbelief, but President Obama, head of probably the most virulently anti-Israel administration in US history, is campaigning on how good a friend he is to the beleaguered state. 

I try not to pat myself too much on the back, but this administration has done more in terms of the security of the state of Israel than any previous administration. And that's not just our opinion, that's the opinion of the Israeli government.

As the author of that short American Spectator piece snarks, 'Anyone who publicly claims, "I try not to pat myself too much on the back," is precisely the sort of person who does so on a daily, if not hourly basis.'

It's not unusual for politicians to "run toward the center" when election time comes around, and try to convince the people they're really a moderate, but this is a new level of absurd. 

David Horowitz and Front Page Magazine have prepared a video called "Obama - The Anti-Israel President".   I link to the HD video rather than a mini-version to show here.

Pro-Israel? Srsly?? In just the last few days, Obama's ambassador to Belgium blamed Muslim antisemitism on Israel, Secretary of State Billary Clinton criticized women's rights in Israel; strangely, the only place in the mid-east where women are recognized as persons with all the same rights as men rather than being legally cattle and the property of men; and Secretary of Defense Leon "the Eyebrows" Panetta chastised Israel for not giving away more territory than they already have and told them to "get to the damned table!".

Few people ever mention that Hillary's closest aide is Egyptian-American Huma Abedin, who happens to be Anthony Weiner's wife. 

Weiner is married to Huma Abedin, who works as a top aide to Clinton. Abedin, who once worked as an intern to Hillary, is close with both Bill Clinton and his wife.

A Clinton/Weiner connection is probably only good for a Beavis and Butthead chuckle, and the fact that Mrs. Weiner is from Egypt hardly worth mentioning.  What is worth mentioning is that Huma Abedin's family is in the Muslim Brotherhood,

Furthermore, Huma Abedin's brother, Hassan, "is listed as a fellow and partner with a number of Muslim Brotherhood members."  Hassan works at the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies (OCIS) at Oxford University.  The Egyptian Al-Azhar University, well-known for a curriculum that encourages extremism and terrorism, is active in establishing links with OCIS.

The American Thinker piece goes into far more detail than I can in this space, including activities of Huma's mother, so you should RTWT.  There is more information on Front Page. I am concerned that a family with ties to the Brotherhood is in this high a position.  For all I know, Mrs. Weiner is fiercely independent of her family and loves the US to death (hers, not ours); but I think the wise counsel of "trust but verify" goes well here.

After all, Muslim Brotherhood influence at the highest levels of the Obama administration (sorta like this Canadian communist says) would pretty much completely explain our abandonment of Israel, wouldn't it? 

More Reading - and More Information

Kerodin over at III Percent Patriots puts up an excellent Open Letter to Occupy that I want to link to and enlarge a little.

Yesterday's chores included a stop at a Harbor Freight store here in town.  Harbor Freight (known to precision metalworkers as Horrible Freight) is a seller of all manner of Chinese and third world tools made of questionable metals with questionable capability, durability and quality.  To be fair, much of their stuff is quite serviceable, and will get a job done right: jackstands, paint brushes, carts, and other tools just aren't that hard to get right.  The point is that the store had a large Help Wanted sign in the window and is working hard to staff a retail store in this wretched economy.

How this relates to Kerodin's piece is that there are real opportunities out there for people who are willing to work.  If you're willing to do hard work, there are many more.  The November 17th edition of Machine Design reports a study by Manpower Group, which says 52% of American companies are having trouble filling job openings.  The ManpowerGroup study backs another study, this from Georgetown University, that says workers in "STEM" (Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics) can expect to earn rising wages.  The reason is really quite simple: the hard sciences are, well, hard, and over a third of the students who start into college in STEM fields don't make it. 

Georgetown says that by 2018, about 35% of the STEM workforce will be people with Community College degrees at most.  They predict a need for 1 million workers with STEM associate's degrees and another 3/4 of a million with certificate programs.  Further, from the high school student with STEM emphasis through BS degrees, most workers in STEM fields do better than their non-STEM classmates.

Despite the rantings of the left, mathematics is not a secret subject that is only taught to empower white people (I swear I heard this); not only are the books available to everyone, learning basic math is required to graduate high school.  It's the ultimate meritocracy; if you can do the work, you get the job.  STEM training is a national priority!

So, at the risk of sounding like a heartless old white dude, instead of taking out that $100,000 in student debt to study any of the Offended Minority Studies programs, the Occupy Whatever folks should go get a certificate in welding, or learn to program a CNC center, become an electronics technician, a medical technician of some kind or any number of other STEM jobs. 

Got an Hour?

You could find a much worse way to spend an hour than to listen to Kyle Bass  at the AmeriCatalyst 2011 conference.  H/T to WSRA for the link. There's a short summary at ZeroHedge. 

Really worth watching - although you could just listen and not miss much.  Bass is a hedge fund manager who made a lot of money betting the right way in the '08 crash, and is obviously the guru at this conference.

If he's right, the EU will go through its collapse this coming year, and money will flow toward the US -  not because we're in good shape, we're just better off than they are.  This will give our officials false optimism and make them think they're not stupid.  The US collapse happens after that.  He believes that war is certain, as has always been the case when economies teeter and fall. 

Somewhere in there, he quotes an "administration official" telling him they are trying to destroy the dollar as a strategy - so we're not paranoid. 

A Little Geeky Side Trip

Alright, an extremely geeky side trip, but geek is in my charter.  This is the kind of thing that just delights me. 

Late in October, a group of amateur rocket makers launched Qu8K (pronounced Quake - after the video game) in an attempt to exceed 100,000 feet in altitude.  The group's calculations showed they reached 120,000 feet, over 22 miles.  This qualifies them for the $5000 Carmack 100kft micro prize, although since they had some troubles with their GPS locking during the flight, it's not clear they have applied. 

Qu8K moments after liftoff.  The acceleration is extremely fast - you have 4000 lbs. of thrust in a 320 lb vehicle.  The vehicle reaches Mach 3 in seconds and coasts up to altitude.

Much more information at their web page, including a cool video that should be watched at full screen in HD mode. 

There probably wasn't an equivalent rocket on Earth until the 1930s; today, a determined group can build one in their shop. 

You Should Really Read...

Last night, I was going to say you should really read this post by Kevin at the Smallest Minority, and I was going to say to watch the video.  But Blogger was barfing last night and wouldn't let me post at all. 

You know what?  If you haven't read it, do so.  It's that important. 

'Scuse Me, I Have a Dead Horse to Beat

A few odds and ends from the economatrix.

Peter over at Bayou Renaissance Man has an excellent coverage of today's announcement that the Fed will be "easing exchanges" with the ECB and other world central banks, allegedly until February 1. This ensures that you and I get to help pay for the bailout of the euro, which is bound to be just as productive as spending the money on hookers and cocaine, but without any stimulation for anyone putting out.  This deal is one of the big reasons behind the 500 point jump in the DJIA today, and probably part of the increase in everything, as inflation gets priced in.  He then follows up in the position of Economic Winner today with another great piece, The Fundamental Dishonesty of our Financial System.

The whole system is now built on lies. The lie that banks are solvent. The lie that the Federal Reserve actually cares about regulating the financial system. The lie that crimes will be punished. The lie that Congress will reform Wall Street. The lie that we’ll get “change” at the ballot box.

The piece includes information on how one of the most despicable humans on the planet, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (hawk, spit), gave hedge fund managers advanced notice that the Fed.gov was going to "rescue" Fannie Mae.  For non-ruling class folks, that's called "insider trading" and punishable by hard time in the gray bar inn. 

Over sandwiches and pasta salad, he delivered that information to a group of men capable of profiting from any disclosure. 

....

“You just never ever do that as a government regulator -- transmit nonpublic market information to market participants,” says Black, who’s a former general counsel at the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco. “There were no legitimate reasons for those disclosures.”

RTWT

Despicable humans?   I imagine you've heard by now that Gerald Celente of Trends Research was personally robbed by MF Global, John Corzine's little empire.  Celente (whom I respect greatly) is, unfortunately, just one of many folks that the MF'ers at MF Global F'ed over. H/T to the Blaze, for this video of Joe Biden bragging about going to Corzine for his expertise.  You can't overlook Corzine when you're looking for the worst of humanity. 

And what do John Corzine and Hank Paulson have in common?  They both ran Goldman Sachs.  See The Fundamental Dishonesty of our Financial System.

QoTD - Proper Role of Government Edition

"The basis of political economy is non–interference. The only safe rule is found in the self–adjusting meter of demand and supply. Do not legislate. Meddle, and you snap the sinews with your sumptuary laws. Give no bounties: make equal laws: secure life and property, and you need not give alms. Open the doors of opportunity to talent and virtue, and they will do themselves justice, and property will not be in bad hands. In a free and just commonwealth, property rushes from the idle and imbecile, to the industrious, brave, and persevering."
Ralph Waldo Emerson

What Will The Collapse Look Like?

This is a really hard question.  I think the most accurate answer is nobody really knows.  It seems reasonable to expect bank holidays, and mandatory limits on withdrawals.  Add in travel restrictions to keep the common folks from fleeing their place in the fire for the frying pan of the UK or the US.   The Telegraph reported over the weekend that the UK's Foreign Office is considering how to get ex-pats home.  They anticipate riots and possibly thousands of UK citizens stranded without access to their money.   

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.

A friend in the UK (years ago) told me they referred to spending the new currency as "euronating".  Perhaps we should borrow the term and refer to their troubles as the central state euronating on the currency ...

Edit 11/30 2100EST - that error-inserting gremlin was bothering me all day. 

FT: The Eurozone Has 10 9 Days At Most

The Financial Times is one of the preeminent business and economic publications in the world, so take it seriously when writer Wolfgang Munchau says the Eurozone has 10 9 Days At Most (the article says 10, but was datelined yesterday).

Last week, the crisis reached a new qualitative stage. With the spectacular flop of the German bond auction and the alarming rise in short-term rates in Spain and Italy, the government bond market across the eurozone has ceased to function. 

Munchau goes on to describe what he thinks will fix the debt problem and it's ... wait for it... more debt!  But not just any debt, special debt!

First, the European Central Bank must agree a backstop of some kind, either an unlimited guarantee of a maximum bond spread ...

The second measure is a firm timetable for a eurozone bond. ... What matters is that it will be a joint-and-several liability of credible size. The insanity of cross-border national guarantees must come to an end. They are not a solution to the crisis. Those guarantees are now the main crisis propagator.

The third decision is a fiscal union. This would involve a partial loss of national sovereignty, and the creation of a credible institutional framework to deal with fiscal policy, and hopefully wider economic policy issues as well. ...

....

I am hearing that there are exploratory talks about a compromise package comprising those three elements. If the European summit could reach a deal on December 9, its next scheduled meeting, the eurozone will survive. If not, it risks a violent collapse. Even then, there is still a risk of a long recession, possibly a depression. So even if the European Council was able to agree on such an improbably ambitious agenda, its leaders would have to continue to outdo themselves for months and years to come. (all italics added - GB)

The first problem is that many (I include myself) don't believe it is possible to fix the problems in EU-land even with the extraordinary measures Munchau talks about.  You simply don't fix a debt problem by incurring more debt.  Where does that "backstop of some kind" come from?  Who's going to pay it?  The second problem is more philosophical: just what kind of a state are they creating?  There has already been " partial loss of national sovereignty"  in Greece and Italy - we talked about this almost a month ago in "This Was the Week Democracy in Europe Died". They are creating a dictatorship run by the money changers; the central banks.  The EU leadership is clearly working on creating a sort of pan-European socialist state and damn the people they squash doing so.  After all, Mao killed around 70 million, right?  Omelets: eggs, so be it.

The central banks have separated themselves from reality - and us - in this financial crisis.  The Federal Reserve, our central bank, gave $7.7 Trillion dollars just by March of 2009 to the banks and not just US banks.  That link (Business Insider) takes you to this piece on Bloomberg News:

The amount of money the central bank parceled out was surprising even to Gary H. Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from 1985 to 2009, who says he “wasn’t aware of the magnitude.” It dwarfed the Treasury Department’s better-known $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP. Add up guarantees and lending limits, and the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March 2009 to rescuing the financial system, more than half the value of everything produced in the U.S. that year. (italics added - GB)

But where does the Federal Reserve, which is just a collection of private banks, get half of the GDP of the entire US??  This means the Fed is creating this money out of thin air.  Banks have already made a pretty good profit off this money, over $13 Billion dollars - note that the graphic at the top shows foreign banks took part in this US Fed money giveaway; the Royal Bank of Scotland (which seems to be a non-US bank) earned an estimated $1.2 Billion from the Fed's handouts.

The fed now owns more US debt than China and is the number one holder of US bonds.  Do you see why I often say that the US government is a wholy owned subsidiary of the Federal Reserve? 

As of Sept 28th the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet lists $1.665 trillion in US Treasury securities compared to runner up China’s at $1.1483 trillion. In layman’s terms, that means that the Federal Reserve now owns the largest portion of the total US public debt (which is about $10.3 trillion out of the whole $15 trillion pie)

(source)  Does this mean the US Federal Reserve will own the eurozone, when they're done bailing out the IMF, who bailed the eurozone out?  Don't forget: our tax money goes to the IMF - the US is their biggest contributor - so you and I are paying for that nonsense in Europe.  In return, the coming inflation that the central banks are creating is going to wipe our life's savings, which means we don't get to retire, which means the 40-somethings behind us don't get promotions and higher titles because we older guys are tying up the corner offices.  Meanwhile, the entire generation behind them is having their dreams wiped out by their insane student loan debt which means they will not be able to pay for the entitlements that the retirees "are owed".  The system is going to collapse because of what the central bankers are doing to save the system. 

A couple of days of normalcy bias really was kinda sweet, I tell you what. 

Normalcy Bias Feels Pretty Darned Good

Normalcy bias is a pretty good way to get killed, generally speaking. The term refers to a very strong tendency for people to think that life will keep going more or less the same way as normal.  It's why people in the World Trade Center, after the first plane struck, took the time to gather belongings and turn off their computers before leaving.  The Survivors' Club, by Ben Sherwood, talks in great length about normalcy bias and how that one of the biggest things that separates those who survive disaster from the rest is that survivors considered that it could happen; they looked for the emergency exit on that plane, looked for the life preservers on their ferry, or considered what to do if an armed person tried to rob them at gunpoint.  Hat tip to Western Rifle Shooters Association for a link to John Robb's Global Guerillas column on the Parable of the Happy Turkey for getting me thinking of Normalcy Bias.

1. In the morning, a nice man comes for a visit.  
2. He puts food in your bowl.  
3. The food is fresh and tasty.  
4. The food is always in plentiful supply.
5. At night there's a warm place to sleep.  
6. The next day, the process is repeated.  The nice man visits, he feeds you, and you sleep comfortably.  It repeats day after day.   
7. You think: everything is right with the world.  How could anything possibly go wrong?  In fact, the only thing I really have to fear is getting hit by lightening when it rains or a the rare chance a fox might get under the wire and into the coop (which very seldom happens).  The Turkeys that worry about this are pessimists.
8. One day, the nice man arrives.  
9. The nice man grabs you.
10. He lays you across a stump, your neck exposed.  
11. He raises an axe and cuts off your head.   

The leap in Robb's article is to the 2008 financial collapse and how the "idiot savants at Goldman Sachs" put wunderkinds in charge of billions of dollars; 20-somethings (who were very smart, don't get me wrong) who could not anticipate the real risks because they didn't have enough experience in life to doubt their computer models.  It's a perfect example of why you shouldn't put kids like that in charge of important things without a graybeard to say "what if?". 

The normalcy bias, though, is pretty darned comfortable.  I spent the weekend enjoying the sensation that this Thanksgiving weekend was a normal one, and probably not the last Thanksgiving of plenty I'll get to share with my family.  I dare say it's why most of America is watching TV or fighting over $2 waffle makers. 

(Graybrother bringing more food to the already-rich Thanksgiving table.)

But if you've been here before, you know that while I may occasionally look away or pretend things are normal, it's not a steady diet.  Even troops on guard duty "take five" now and then.  I will continue to look the coming disaster in its face and tell you what I see coming. 

What's Need Got To Do With It?

What's need go to do,
got to do with it?
What's need, but an
odd justification?
What's need got to do,
got to do with it? ~ with apologies to Tina Turner

So last weekend the fun show was in town again, the last until New Years, and we went up to see what there was to see.  I found something I've been kind of looking for, for a while.  A nice looking stainless .22LR revolver.

This is a Rossi M-511, apparently called the Sportsman.  It's a six-shot, DA or SA with nice adjustable sights.  The grips are not original equipment, but are nice target shooting grips.  Clean, relatively free of scratches, scuffs or other marks.  As Tam said the other day,

500 rounds in a day in a .45 will leave your hands feeling like you've been hitting a heavy bag. 500 rounds in a plastic nine will still leave you knowing that you've been shooting when you pick up your utensils at dinner that night. 500 rounds of .22 will have you asking "Is that all we brought? Who wants to run to WalMart for more?"

22LR pistols like the Walther P22, and the Sig Mosquito are very popular, and during the extreme ammo shortage of '09, I got a S&W 22A pistol - the reason for the "what's need got to do with it?" song parody.  It's just a ton of fun to shoot - well balanced, aims very naturally for me, just a lot of fun.  I set my targets back about as far as the range allows, and I could empty a box of 500.  While the little Smith will shoot pretty much all brands of modern, supersonic 22LR ammo, I have come across some that won't cycle properly (some old Remington Thunderbolt lead RN an old timer sold me).  I suspect that the revolver will be quite a bit less fussy with it, and even allow subsonic ammo.  Hopefully we'll see on Sunday.

Obligatory Happy Thanksgiving Post

It was a busy day here at Castle Graybeard.  We finished replacing a shelf for the "Armageddon closet" (don't recall who invented that term...); I built it last weekend, and finished it with Polycrylic today.  Put it in place and did a little Spyderco-assisted surgery on my thumb to remove the only big splinter.  Watched football, smoked a turkey, replaced strings on my guitars, played a bit, and just enjoyed a quiet day with Mrs. Graybeard, and the delightfully crazy cats.

(Smoked a turkey?  How big are the rolling papers?  How do you light it?)

I am thankful for so much... despite the coming troubles, I am richly blessed here and now, and I know it. May all of you enjoy a wonderful day with your families and friends.  Or by yourself, if that's your day.  Thanks to the EMTs, Nurses, Doctors, LEOs, Firefighters and others who work today so we can have the day off.  Thanks to the service men and women who keep the barbarians from the gates and give us the chance to relax.  For now, eat, drink, be merry, and pray. 

When Folks Talk About the FSA...

Just because it's an army of non-productive folks dedicated to feeding off the productive (see "remora") doesn't mean the FSA won't expend any effort or money to feed.  Especially if it's Other People's Money. 

Several people have linked to Mike-istan's three part series on the coming nastiness, "Concord Bridge or Fort Sumter".  If you haven't, it's worth reading.  (part i)  The paragraph that leapt off the page and slapped me between the eyes was this:

Here in Ohio we just had an election where the biggest issue was a referendum on repealing a pension reform package which would have just slightly slowed the gravy train for public employees. The public sector unions and their allies spent thirty million dollars to convince voters that asking state employees to contribute a few percent of their pay to fund their otherwise completely tax financed salary, benefit, and retirement packages, would leave the police helpless to stop crime, the fire departments without water, and death and destruction just around the corner. The rubes bought it and repealed the reforms by a two to one margin. (emphasis added - GB)

Since all the money public sector unions have comes from dues, which come in turn from wages paid by taxpayers, that's using the productive taxpayers' money to attack the productive taxpayers - it's almost perfect in its worthlessness; almost perfectly evil. 

This has been the large, divisive issue that stands in the way of governments getting their finances straightened out: public sector unions that negotiate with politicians who have no stake in the negotiation.  The politicians give big sweet deals to public sector unions - it's not their money that they're negotiating away, after all - and those unions turn around and contribute money to those politicians to keep the fleecing going.  In my opinion, it will continue to get worse as we slide into worse and worse economic conditions.  At this point, it seems to me that the most likely flash point into actual violence is here.  We know that unions routinely commit violence against those they perceive as enemies; at some point, do they start punching out little old ladies at Tea Party rallies? After all, they got away with beating down Ken Gladney and routinely attack each other, why not taxpayers?

(A remora attaches itself to a shark or other large source of food with a tennis shoe-shaped suction area on the top of its head.  This way it gets a free ride, does minimal work, and consumes a steady supply of crumbs when the shark eats.  A perfect analogy for the AFSCME or SEIU public sector unions.)

How much improvement could have been made in the unions' retirement funds or health plans, if they had spent that 30 million dollars on their members instead of attacking the people who write their paychecks? 

More Tales From the Over Regulated State - A Series

Wherein tonight's installment can be called, "You can tune a piano but you can't tuna fish."

Carlos Rafael, by everything I can find, is an ethical small businessman who owns a small fleet of fishing boats, and attempts to navigate the waters of excessive federal regulations.  Those waters are ending up far more treacherous than the waters offshore Cape Cod, where his business is based.  I say he's an ethical fisherman because he purchased permits for 15 of his boats to allow them to take a giant bluefin tuna.  Bluefins are ordinarily caught on hook and line after great amounts of effort - but his boats are bottom fishing boats that deploy nets.  To catch a bluefin that way is a "once in a blue moon" event, as Rafael says.  The story begins on November 12th: 

Boat owner Rafael, a big player in the local fishing industry, was elated when the crew of his 76-foot steel dragger Apollo told him they had unwittingly captured a giant bluefin tuna in their trawl gear while fishing offshore.

Bluefins, you see, are highly valued in Japan as sushi; their flesh looks more like beef steak than just about any other fish and commands a very high price.  "A 754­pound specimen fetched a record price at a Tokyo auction in January this year, selling for nearly $396,000."  The fish on Rafael's boat was estimated at more than a hundred pounds bigger than that fish.  If I were him, my thoughts would be running along the lines of "Ca Ching!" over and over.

As the Cape Cod News reports:

However, when Rafael rolled down the dock in Provincetown there was an unexpected and unwelcome development. The authorities were waiting. Agents from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of Law Enforcement informed him they were confis­cating his fish — all 881 pounds of it.

Even though the catch had been declared and the boat had a tuna permit, the rules do not allow fishermen to catch bluefin tuna in a net.

“They said it had to be caught with rod and reel,” a frustrated Rafael said.“We didn't try to hide anything. We did everything by the book. Nobody ever told me we couldn't catch it with a net.”

In any case, after being towed for more than two hours in the net, the fish was already dead when the Apollo hauled back its gear, he said.

“What are we supposed to do?” he asked. “They said they were going to give me a warn­ing,” Rafael said. “I think I'm going to surrender all my tuna permits now. What good are they if I can't catch them?”

The Feds, as always, told him he was expected to know that he could only use rod and reel.  It's his responsibility to know every little piece of every regulation in the Federal bible.  "Ignorance of the law is no excuse". What?  There's no mens rea?  That is so last century. 

No charges have yet been filed in connection with the catch, but a written warning is anticipated, according to Chris­tine Patrick, a public affairs specialist with NOAA who said the fish has been forfeited and will be sold on consignment overseas. Proceeds from the sale of the fish will be held in an account pending final reso­lution of the case, NOAA said. No information on the value of the fish was available Friday.

“The matter is still under investigation,”said Monica Allen, deputy director with NOAA Fisheries public affairs. “If it's determined that there has been a violation, the money will go into the asset forfeiture fund.”

I just love the passive voice.  No person, no individual ever "determines if there has been a violation".  Don't want any petty bureaucrat to attract attention for this, do we?  

This is a serious issue, not just for Mr. Rafael, but for anyone who goes fishing.  There are federal rules and state rules that don't usually say the same things.  You are expected to know them all and be in compliance with them all or not go fishing.  If you inadvertently catch the wrong type of fish or catch it in the wrong way, perhaps it's better to just dump the carcass at sea. Protein is never wasted in the sea.

100%

A milestone in the history of our nation was reached about 8:30AM EST today, when our ever-increasing debt to GDP ratio exceeded 100%. Just over 2 years ago, Bill Gross of Pimco, the wizard of bonds, said our debt to GDP ratio could conceivably reach this level in "perhaps as quickly as five years".  Most of us have seen the great visualization sequence at usdebt.kleptocracy.us, who gives us this image of the physical size of our debt: here is $15 trillion dollars, in stacked pallets of 100 dollar bills.

I want to show the following chart, a recent, but not up to the minute version of the data, which shows the growth of the debt in the last century.  I like this format because the linear vertical scale clearly shows - with a minor hitch - exponential growth, and that's the fundamental problem (source is from January):

The exponential growth is the example of why this can't be fixed by increasing taxes; which is the equivalent of taking a bucket of water out of a swimming pool and dumping it in the other end.  This is a spending problem.  This is the death spike of a currency. 

As I said last night, with a congress unwilling to make even 3% cuts in spending, this does not end well.  But it does end - it has to - and probably fairly soon: it ends in months, not years.  Infinity is a handy concept in math but not a good basis for economic policy.

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency involved. - Ludwig von Mises

Oh - that's right.  An anonymous Keynesian commenter in October said that Austrian economics can't make predictions.  Everything is fine.  Just keep on with life.  No need to store food or any of those fruitcake ideas you read about.  You can trust our insect overlords to fix everything. 

Fiddling While Rome Burns

Remember the good old days when the enemies were foreign and not domestic?  Sigh...

I'm sure you've seen that the news media has been abuzz this weekend about the Super Committee not being able to reach a deal.  The Super Congress is supposed to reach a deal to decrease the deficit by $1.2 trillion dollars over the next decade.  I'm sure you've heard the dire talk that if they don't make this meager change, the cuts will automatically come from defense and social programs.  Predictably the two parties are blaming each other for the inability to cut this trivial amount out of the budget.  Meager?  Trivial?  $1.2 Trillion?  Sure: with no growth, just divided over 10 years that's $120 billion this year.  Our revenue is about 2.2 Trillion so it's 5.5% of the revenue; but less than 3% of spending!  Most people could handle a 3% cut in their spending if they had to, by tightening their belts enough, and probably have in the last year.  The fed.gov probably looses that much without even noticing it. 

The problem with this whole argument is that we need to cut spending by $1.2 trillion dollars this year, or over the next year or two at the most, not over the next decade.  With the Federal Reserve making up money from nothing and buying our own debt, how much time do you think we have?  Furthermore, I'll bet you almost anything that any deal they come up with will be back end loaded and cuts this year will be minimal to non-existent. All they ever do is kick the can down the road.

I would bet that if they don't come up with a way to cut this meager 3% of spending, that our credit ratings will be (deservedly) downgraded again.  I bet that not making this cut will cause more harm than good as the world has it hammered home that the US is irresponsible and not credit-worthy.  

I said fairly recently that I've seen Robert Kiyosaki talk about this a few times, and the most recent time I saw him (last week) he said he believes the dollar is going to collapse by next summer, with a fairly high degree of confidence.  I don't know when this video was made but he's advocating the things I reported on in that first link. 

• Grub  - you need food.  Lots of food.  It might take years for production to return.  Think preparations that would put Mormons (1 year) to shame. 
• Ground - you need shelter, or someplace to go, especially if you're in a city or a place that's likely to descend into chaos. 
• Gold - for barter.  Silver is just as valid.  So are liquor, chocolate, cigarettes, and all the other things we've talked about. 
• Gas - fuel.  Energy is life, whether it's for cooking or boiling rain water to drink.
• Guns - and I'm really sure I don't need to explain this one!

I don't want to seem that I'm arguing by appeal to authority - but when someone as demonstrably optimistic as Kiyosaki is saying to prepare for bad times, that should be a wake up call.  Look - the math is undeniable.  Spending simply can't go on at the current rates. 

If You Ever Needed Proof The EU Technocrats Are Insane

How about the unelected Brussels technocrats banning claims that water can prevent dehydration.  While there might be medical conditions that can cause dehydration no matter how much is consumed, this is completely insane.

Producers of bottled water are now forbidden by law from making the claim and will face a two-year jail sentence if they defy the edict, which comes into force in the UK next month.

Last night, critics claimed the EU was at odds with both science and common sense. Conservative MEP Roger Helmer said: “This is stupidity writ large.

“The euro is burning, the EU is falling apart and yet here they are: highly-paid, highly-pensioned officials worrying about the obvious qualities of water and trying to deny us the right to say what is patently true.

“If ever there were an episode which demonstrates the folly of the great European project then this is it.”

From the Telegraph.  I'm torn on whether to post this one: it's so completely batshit insane it is either true EU bureaucrats or a satire.  But isn't the fact that I can't tell partly the point? 

A Weekend Time Sink

Hat tip to Everyday No Days Off Gun Blog for this link to an amazing collection of WWII Photographs.  I could easily spend hours there - just spent a half hour over lunch looking through a few of them.  In what seems to be a publicity photo, a model poses with a B-17F nose bombardier's dome at Douglas Aircraft. 

Well, I suppose I'm assuming the "Temporary" badge, nail polish, gold watch, rings, double photographer's lights and her general cleanliness indicate this is a carefully crafted picture.  She might well be a worker at Douglas, but this was certainly not a case of a photographer walking in and taking a snapshot of someone at work. 

A reminder of what many of our parents or grandparents went through to give us this nation being taken out from under us by the FSA.

Throw Them All Out

Throw Them All Out is the title of a book by Peter Schweizer, which delves into the many ways the ruling class exploits their position, their "entitlement" to a better life than the voter-scum who elect them, and get filthy rich.  The story in this book is the reason for the now-famous 60 Minutes story about Nancy Pelosi this past Sunday.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi bought stock in initial public offerings (IPOs) that earned hefty returns while she had access to insider information that would have been illegal for an average citizen to trade with – even though it’s perfectly legal for elected officials, CBS’s "60 Minutes" reported Sunday night. (emphasis added)

It is not illegal for members of congress to do things that would get any of us put in jail.  For example, billionaire Martha Stewart spent time in federal prison for lying to the FBI over insider trading worth about $100,000.  To put that in perspective, scale her billion dollar worth down to $100,000, and divide that insider trading $100,000 by the same amount and you'll find she spent five months in federal prison over the equivalent of $10 to a more normal income.  In comparison, Nancy Pelosi in just the one case she was asked about on 60 Minutes benefited from insider information to the tune of $100,000, yet it was perfectly legal.

In an interview, Schweizer tells the story of the tumultuous days in 2008 before the TARP funds were allocated. A Newsweek interview puts it this way:

Republican Rep. Spencer Bachus, of Alabama... was known in the House as a guy who liked to play the market, and in fact he was pretty good at it; one year, he reported a capital gain in excess of $150,000 from his trading activities. More striking is that Bachus boldly carried forth his trading in the teeth of the impending financial collapse, the nightmarish dimensions of which he had learned about first-hand in confidential briefings from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. On Sept. 19, 2008, after attending two such briefings, Bachus bought options in an index fund (ProShares UltraShort QQQ) that effectively amounted to a bet that the market would fall. That is indeed what happened, and, on Sept. 23, Bachus sold his “short” options, purchased for $7,846, for more than $13,000—nearly doubling his investment in four days.

Around the time Congress and the Bush administration worked out a TARP bailout, Bachus made another options buy and again nearly doubled his money.

Again, if you or I did that, we'd be spending time behind bars with bad men, but for them, it's not illegal.  Neither Bachus, nor Pelosi, nor Boehner, nor John Kerry or any of them violated any laws or ethics rules.  Although Nancy might want to be behind bars with bad men - I don't know.

And that's just part of the problem.  They also get rich on land deals, and the crony insider deals we already hear about.  Solyndra and the rest of the green energy scandals are the system working backwards - they make other people rich in thanks for contributing to their campaigns.

In the wake of the story, Joe Lieberman and Scott Brown have introduced a bill into the Senate to make them live by the same rules we do.  In the house, Louise Slaughter, and Tim Walz, have done the same.  It seems likely to me that these bills will pick up additional sponsors but, of course, are in danger.   Such bills have been introduced before and they've always been blocked - Brian Baird of Washington was the last one to seriously push this kind of legislation. They see no reason to have to live like the common people. 

Throw Them All Out is non-partisan, as the "All" in the title implies.  In the 1992 election, when  Ross Perot's siphoning off of GOP votes gave Bill Clinton the presidency, there was a movement called THRO - Throw the Hypocritical Rascals Out.  It appears to be growing legs again.  Meanwhile, Borepatch has been saying this for a long time.  If you haven't gotten the message, read it again.