Wednesday, June 22, 2011

While The Media Was Telling Weiner Jokes

President O signed executive order 13575.  The Establishment of the White House Rural Council, in which they move to impose even more federal control over farmlands, rural areas, and 16% of the population. 
Section 1. Policy  Sixteen percent of the American population lives in rural counties. Strong, sustainable rural communities are essential to winning the future and ensuring American competitiveness in the years ahead. These communities supply our food, fiber, and energy, safeguard our natural resources, and are essential in the development of science and innovation. Though rural communities face numerous challenges, they also present enormous economic potential. The Federal Government has an important role to play in order to expand access to the capital necessary for economic growth, promote innovation, improve access to health care and education, and expand outdoor recreational activities on public lands.
The Blaze picked up this story, in an article written by Mike Opelka.  That whole thing sounds benign if not warm and fuzzy, doesn't it?  Question: is there anything this bunch has done that's benign?  I wonder who's running this show?
  • (1) the Department of the Treasury; Timothy Geithner
  • (2) the Department of Defense; Robert Gates
  • (3) the Department of Justice; Eric Holder
  • (4) the Department of the Interior; Ken Salazar
  • (5) the Department of Commerce; Gary Locke
  • (6) the Department of Labor; Hilda Solis
  • (7) the Department of Health and Human Services; Kathleen Sebelius
  • (8) the Department of Housing and Urban Development; Shaun Donovan
  • (9) the Department of Transportation; Ray LaHood
  • (10) the Department of Energy; Dr. Steven Chu
  • (11) the Department of Education; Arne Duncan
  • (12) the Department of Veterans Affairs; Eric Shinseki
  • (13) the Department of Homeland Security; Janet Napolitano
  • (14) the Environmental Protection Agency; Lisa Jackson
  • (15) the Federal Communications Commission; Michael Copps
  • (16) the Office of Management and Budget; Peter Orszag
  • (17) the Office of Science and Technology Policy; John Holdren
  • (18) the Office of National Drug Control Policy; R. Gil Kerlikowske
  • (19) the Council of Economic Advisers; Austan Goolsbee
  • (20) the Domestic Policy Council; Melody Barnes (former VP at Center for American Progress)
  • (21) the National Economic Council; Gene B. Sperling
  • (22) the Small Business Administration; Karen Mills
  • (23) the Council on Environmental Quality; Nancy Sutley
  • (24) the White House Office of Public Engagement and Intergovernmental Affairs; Valerie Jarrett
  • (25) the White House Office of Cabinet Affairs; and such other executive branch departments, agencies, and offices as the President or Secretary of  Agriculture may, from time to time, designate. Chris Lu (or virtually anyone to be designated by the 24 people named above)
Oh, that makes me feel much better.  Valerie Jarrett, TurboTax Timmy, John "let's put contraceptives in the water" Holdren, Michael Copps, either the biggest turd on the FCC or a close second... the whole den of thieves.  As Obi-Wan said, "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy". 

You have to ask why.  After all, the fed.gov already has power over these areas, already has tons of programs to manage farmlands and crops, even paying farmers not to produce.  They already provide loans.  On the other extreme, there's already a National Park Service and Bureau of Land Management to provide "outdoor recreational opportunities".  In other words, they're already deep into this "under served" 16% of the country.  Why now?  Note the buzzwords "sustainable rural communities" in that first paragraph.  Author Opelka puts this whole thing in the context of UN Agenda 21, which is all about "sustainable growth" - which is code for elimination of private property.  Newsflash: if it's from the UN, it's socialist.  I'm sure you're as shocked as I am to hear this. 

Go read the whole piece.  On a day when another story about how gentle and kind to rural folks the fed.gov already is, and that story itself should be headline news.   

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

The Impact of One Man

This is going to be a departure from my usual fare - I don't think I've ever written anything quite like this. 

Have you ever wondered about the impact of one man on the world?  Just how much can the world be changed by one guy? 

Look around where you are.  Are you in front of a computer?  Laptop?  If you're reading this, you're using some form of electronics.  Do you have an MP3 player, like an iPod?  Do you listen to podcasts? 

The common thread I want to point out is analog electronics.  Not digital.  Not the computer itself but the sound system.  Although very few people are aware of this, the number of people who design the modern analog integrated circuits is shockingly small.   Two very bright stars in the history of analog IC design have both died unexpectedly in the last 10 days, and the engineers who know them by their work are in somewhat of a state of shock.

I don't want to get too off track, but I'll bet the vast majority of folks who stumble across this will know the names of the big name digital companies;  Intel, AMD, Texas Instruments (where the IC was invented).  You'll probably know Samsung, Fujitsu, Cypress or some other big players.  Digital is the hot technology, right?  Every generation, digital circuits get faster and more capable.  Everyone who has been around computers for more than a few years has stories of how much they spent for something that's cheap today.   I've had computers long enough to remember paying $350 for my first hard drive (30 Meg!) and $200 for my first megabyte of memory.  At a recent show, I was given a 1 Gig USB thumb drive as a promotion.  But have you heard of Fairchild Semiconductor?  Philbrick?  What about National Semiconductor, Linear Technology or Analog Devices? 

The analog world is a small piece of electronics, but indispensable.  Digital circuits are switches, and they function by rules of logic (Boolean algebra).  They work by switching between off and on at blazing speeds.  Modern circuits may only switch 1.8V or less, down from the 5V logic that was the norm when I was a kid - the lower voltage helps them speed up, and reduces power consumption.   Analog circuits, by contrast, are thought of as continuous operation.  While any signal below the high "turn on" level for a digital circuit (1.2V, for example) is the same, whole analog systems work with signals very far below that measured in millionths to thousandths of a volt.  Analog circuits power the digital world.  Essentially all modern systems use switching power supplies (also called switch-mode) to achieve the efficiencies we want in our electronics.  A simple power supply made of a transformer, rectifiers and filtering, may be 30% efficient; modern switchers can hit 90% efficient.  Think of the power saved!  (and the market did it on our own, without the .gov forcing us!  Imagine that...) 

One of the bright stars in analog IC design was a genius named Jim Williams.  Jim passed away unexpectedly June 12th after suffering a massive stroke.  Jim is best remembered for his years at Linear Technology, and they currently have a nice memorial page on their site.  I never met Jim in "meatspace", but I have read many of his applications notes describing the most intricate concepts clearly and concisely.  I think I first noticed Jim by name in the late 80s when I came across an applications note he authored called "Switching Regulators for Poets - a gentle guide for the trepidatious" (AN25).  An MIT guy, but not an actual graduate engineer, he is recognized widely in industry, including being inducted into the hall of fame.  Like all the great ones, he realized that filling a book page or whiteboard with math might describe the way the circuit worked, but didn't bring understanding; description and understanding are different things.

The second bright star, Bob Pease, died on the way home from Jim's funeral.  Bob first met Jim at Philbrick in the early days of analog ICs.  Bob cultivated his image as a curmudgeon, maintaining a "wizard beard", and at one time throwing computers off the National Semiconductor headquarters because the circuit simulation software "lied to me".  Again, I never met Bob in meatspace but I've read hundreds of his columns in Electronic Design magazine.  They have a tribute page up now, too, as does National Semiconductor.  Bob was involved in a lot of ground breaking design, but I think he was most proud of inventing the bandgap reference - still the state of the art approach for a voltage reference that varies the least with temperature - and started calling himself the Bandgap Czar.

In our modern, technical society, we tend to take things for granted.  We'll always have amplifiers and analog "black magic" electronics.  The community of people who actually do this is small, though.  I think it would surprise you.  National Semiconductor, where Bob and Jim both worked before Jim left for the upstart Linear Technology, has been acquired by Texas Instruments.  I'm not sure what will become of the name, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was gone in a year or two.  Of the 5700 employees at National, I'll bet there's less than 100 analog IC designers and one or two "staff scientists" who grok it all.  How many are there in the world?  Perhaps a thousand people on earth?   

Going back to my start, what's the impact of one man?  The philosophers argue that while a Jim Williams or Bob Pease may have invented much of modern circuitry, if they hadn't been there, someone else would have done it.  But how do we know?  Anyone who has done math has likely had the experience of struggling to solve a problem, only to have it look clear and obvious when the teacher solves it.  Oftentimes, the hardest part in solving a problem is seeing that it can be solved; and knowing a solution exists will drive someone on to find it.  I am always in awe of the great minds who do so much, and advance the standard of living for all of us - just because it's fun for them to do.  You'll see people saying that if we got through a really big SHTF event, that we'll be back to 18th century living.  We'll be surrounded by tech that no one knows how to use.  If the wrong thousand people die, society may "forget" how to design analog ICs. 

RIP, Jim, Bob.  Though we never met, you improved my life. 

Monday, June 20, 2011

The Dollar Can't Buy a Friend

H/T to Zerohedge; more bad news for the dollar, the Russians have gotten rid of about 1/3 of their US bonds and plan to buy fewer.  
"Just in time for the end of QE2, when the US needs every possible foreign buyer of US debt to step up to the plate, we get confirmation that yet another major foreign central bank has decided to not only not add to its US debt holdings, but to actively sell US Treasurys. The WSJ reports that "Russia will likely continue lowering its U.S. debt holdings as Washington struggles to contain a budget deficit and bolster a tepid economic recovery, a top aide to President Dmitry Medvedev said Saturday. "The share of our portfolio in U.S. instruments has gone down and probably will go down further," said Arkady Dvorkovich, chief economic aide to the president..."
So China is getting out of the dollar, Japan is out of the market, Russia is getting out... who's left?  The EU?  With Greece moments from collapse, massive protests in Spain and their other problems?  While congress fiddles, anyone with any sense is getting out of the US bonds.  In fact, bonds from any nation don't seem really secure now.  The stock market technical indicators are insisting that trouble's coming.  The EU and US are in trouble, while China has built ghost cities (can you say "bubble"?) and is facing social unrest, themselves.  Looks like it's getting to be time to find a bunker to hide in.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

The Fat and Out of Shape Middle-Aged Guy's Guide...

...to being somewhat less "fat and out of shape".

H/T to WSRA today for poking my muse with a sharp stick so that she could poke me.  The unwritten statement in that article is that if you're old or injured, handicapped or disabled, or otherwise not able to put on a ghillie suit and head for the back country, you should give all of your stuff to someone who can do that and then be a good sport and off yourself. To borrow a quote, I don't think so.

There's a reason the armies of the world rarely use guys my age (I'm 57 - some days feel closer to 100, some days closer to 50): with a few exceptions, we simply aren't able to match the fitness, strength, or endurance of the average guy even 20 years younger than us.  Plus, they never created a MilSpec for Depends.  I celebrated my 50th birthday by running a 5 k (3.1 miles) followed by a 55 mile bike ride.  I didn't do that on my 57th.  I could go on and on about "with age comes wisdom", or "old age and treachery will always overcome youth and skill", but I won't. 

Do you move well?  I have arthritis, but am still pretty mobile. The worst of my arthritis affects my hands; mostly thumbs and a couple of fingers.  My right hand is worse than my left, and my thumb and pinky finger are the worst.  It makes many common tasks painful.  Many folks have had hips or knees replaced by the time they get to be my age, and I'm lucky in that regard, although I feel I'm working on needing a hip.  Mrs. Graybeard has had both hips replaced, and has a pound a of stainless in her mid-back from a time we were run down by a light pickup truck while riding our bikes (the day before New Years Eve of Y2K).  I walked out of the ER 3 hours later - she was hospitalized 3 weeks.  I know I'm lucky to get around as well as I do. 

So here you are, a middle-aged guy or gal with somewhat of a paunch, and would like to be a little tougher for the coming problems. Do I need to state the obvious?  If you're listening to some random dude on "teh Interwebz" without checking to see if you have problems that prevent doing any of this stuff, you're out of your freakin' mind. 

The first thing you should do is either buy or check out from your library, "Why We Get Fat and What to Do About It".  Author Gary Taubes is an award-winning science writer who shook up the world when he first started researching this and wrote an article for Science magazine called "The Soft Science of Dietary Fat".  (If you're not familiar with it, Science magazine is the house journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, or AAAS, - a very prestigious journal).  He followed that up with a easier version for the NY Times called, "What If It's All Been a Big Fat Lie?" and followed that up with a full-length book, "Good Calories, Bad Calories".  (standard disclaimer about Amazon links - just so you can see the book, I don't get money, yada, yada)  "Good Calories/Bad Calories" is written like a scientific paper and has tons of references; "Why We Get Fat" is more of a how to/what to do book. 

If you want the short version, everything the nanny state tells you to eat is what you should avoid; everything Dr. Atkins tells you to eat is good.  To quote comedian Chris Rock, red meat isn't bad for you; green meat is bad for you.  Fat doesn't make you fat; dietary fat doesn't cause heart disease, "over eating" doesn't cause obesity, and all the dietary wisdom the fed.gov has been pushing since the 1970s is why we're getting fatter and have so much diabetes in our country.  Corporate wellness programs are well-intentioned but wrong; BMI is a meaningless number and overweight is probably a meaningless concept.  Reading all that background will help you understand why the more closely the general population follows the federally recommended diet the less healthy they become.   

This is going to be a big change for most people, and it can be an expensive way to eat.  You're probably going to go through some carb withdrawal.  Depending on how much insulin resistance you have (read those links two paragraphs up!), it might take some time to make a difference.  At one time, I lost about 70 pounds on the Atkins diet.  Stopping it was a stupid thing.  Now I need to lose 40 or 50. 

Now that you've dropped the idea that eating red meat is a problem, let's take on exercise.  The first thing you must do is decouple diet and exercise in your mind.  This has been pushed as the gospel for so long, that even people who don't care about their weight believe fat people wouldn't be fat "if they'd just walk around the block instead of having that second portion".  Yet most of us are familiar with the expression to "work up an appetite".  When did we get the idea that exercise doesn't make us hungry?  I joke that I was drawn to endurance cycling because it's the only sport where you have to eat during the events to compete! 

Exercise is worth doing for a mess of reasons: better ability to handle the tasks of life, muscle helps keep joints from being damaged, better support for all of your skeleton, and weight-bearing exercise helps prevent osteoporosis.  For the target group I'm addressing, I recommend weights and walking for starters.  Chances are everyone in this audience has all the weights we need with ammo boxes and cans; you don't need to go join a gym and work out on Bowflex or Nautilus equipment.  Avoid plyometric exercises - at least for now.  These are the jumping, lunging, high impact movements that you'll see on some TV products.  These are for people who are already in shape, not people trying to get in shape. 

How much weight?  Another point of contention where one group says light weights done many times and others say to increase the weight until you find you can't repeat the exercise more than five times without losing form.  After many years in the first camp, I'm moving toward the second.  There is no such thing as "toning", but you'll see places say to use light weight just to improve "muscle tone" and base that on physical therapy.  If you ever get therapy for an injury, you'll probably be surprised to see they usually work with light weights: a pound or two most of the time.  Yes, you really can protect your joints with that little weight.  But all weight lifting is intended to build muscle.  You either build muscle or you don't. 

Do core strengthening: bent-knee sit-ups or crunches.  If they get too easy, do them against weight.  Carry ammo cans around your house - work up to carrying them around your yard.  If loaded ammo cans are too heavy, bring boxes, or half-full cans.  The nice thing about weight lifting is that everything has weight.  It's just a matter of how convenient it is to work with.  

"Cardio" workouts: running or cycling or walking are pleasant things to do, if you enjoy them, but I suspect that's over-rated, too.  In my case, I know it didn't prevent the usual conditions that set in when you're over-50.  To quote myself:
My favorite story in the wellness and health screening arena is that soon after I turned 40, I decided to get a physical and it included a cholesterol test.  It came back that my total cholesterol was moderately high, but my HDL was considered way too low.  They recommended that I do some exercise, perhaps walk around the block.  It struck me funny because I had ridden 100 miles on my bike over the weekend between getting tested and getting the results.  Clearly, the cause is not related to exercise. 

There you have it: a starting point.  Losing weight might be completely cosmetic, and it may help your health, but it will probably help you if you have to do some moving to keep from being a target.  Fitness and muscle strength will help in manual labor and other things that may be coming.  It will help us be useful - to family, friends and community. 

Don't just be prepared, be prepared to be useful, and a blessing to those in need.  

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Why A Depression is Inevitable, and Economic Collapse Inescapable

Victor Davis Hanson, certainly one of the brightest stars on the right, has an excellent piece at National Review Online called "How to Turn a Recession Into a Depression".  It illustrates by 10 examples how the policies of the administration are optimized to collapse the US economy.  Why would a president do such a thing?  One would assume so that they can complete the campaign-promised "fundamentally transforming the United States of America".  I've often commented that I don't know that they're trying to destroy our country, I just don't see what they'd be doing differently if they were.   

I won't go into what he covered, suffice it to say go visit and read the whole thing; it's roughly 10 paragraphs long, but information-dense.  It serves to remind, though, that Mrs. Graybeard and I were talking this morning about the fact that no presidential candidate, and no politician on the national scene that we're aware of has addressed one fundamental fact: 

A balanced budget is nowhere near enough to fix our problems. 

The federal debt ceiling, which I contend doesn't even exist (more), since they raise the ceiling whenever it gets inconvenient, is a big topic lately.  Supposedly, in early August we hit a drop dead date when fed.gov can no longer borrow.  That will either be a disaster of biblical proportions if you're on the left, or a spending cap if you're on the right.  See, if you have debt to pay and things you want to spend money on, but not enough money for both, Geithner and the other Keynesian morons say to default on the debt and spend on your programs.  Anyone who has so much as run a newspaper route, or any business, or anyone even the least bit grounded in reality would say to pay your debts and not spend the money you don't have. 

Faced with this monstrous debt, not one person in the public arena has stated the brutally honest truth that we don't need a balanced budget; we need to run surpluses for as far as the eye can see.  How else can we possibly pay down any of that debt?  A balanced budget just stops debt from piling on, but pays interest and does nothing to reduce the principal.  I'm not even suggesting we need to pay that down to zero; I'm just saying a debt to GDP ratio of essentially 100% isn't sustainable and we can't just cut spending by 45% (what it takes to get any sort of surplus) we have to keep those "draconian" spending cuts in place for generations.  We not only need to cut back or end social security (the world's biggest Ponzi scheme - it makes Bernie Madoff look like Mother Theresa), we not only need to cut Medicare, end Obamacare, throw out books of federal regulations and shutter whole agencies of the fed.gov;  we need to keep those disciplines in place for a century - or more. 

What do you think the chances of that are?  In a society where around half gets some sort of government benefit?  Without a collapse and everyone realizing we need strict discipline to keep from getting into trouble again?  I figure the odds are someplace between zero and a smidgen.  Inescapable.   And forcing collapse just may be the ultimate purpose of the policies Hanson writes about. 

Friday, June 17, 2011

Drill Here, Drill Now?

You would think with our problems assuring we have sufficient energy to run our society, there would be a push to exploit our enormous natural gas reservoirs.  I'm sure you've heard that in the last decade, discoveries of new ways of extracting natural gas from rocks has increased our projected gas reserves spectacularly.   I've read we have enough gas to run the country for a hundred years.
(image source)
I have a good friend who left the electronics industry rat race a couple of years ago; moved north and settled on a farm in some of the new natural gas country (and I've got to say that's a very tempting idea).  She sends me this interesting news item:
On May 20, the Department of Energy gave approval for Cheniere Energy Inc. to export 2.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from its Sabine Pass, La., port terminal - the first approval of overseas export of U.S.-produced gas from the lower 48 states.
I can see why Cheniere might want to do that.  If they can get a better price from countries that don't have gas, I can see why they'd want to export their product.  But Texas billionaire T. Boone Pickens, said,
"So here we are, we’re exporting our clean-burning fuel (nat gas) and importing dirty oil… We’re gonna go down as the dumbest crowd in history…"
I've got to say I've thought that....  Then I realized T Boone is optimistic.  We're going to go down in history as the nation that committed suicide by being so afraid to use any form of energy that we just laid down and died.  Sort of like the people of Miranda.
"These are just a few of the images we've recorded. And you can see, it wasn't what we thought. There's been no war here and no terraforming event. The environment is stable. It's the Pax. The G-23 Paxilon Hydrochlorate that we added to the air processors. It was supposed to calm the population, weed out aggression. Well, it works. The people here stopped fighting. And then they stopped everything else. They stopped going to work, they stopped breeding, talking, eating. There's 30 million people here, and they all just let themselves die."
In our case it's the environmental nuts, fruits and flakes, not the Pax. 

Thursday, June 16, 2011

The Closer You Look, The More Corruption You Find

The closer you look at LightSquared, that is.

In the last few days, I've posted a couple of times about how this company wants to build a nationwide broadband network that interferes badly with GPS.  The more I look into the company, the worse it looks.  The company is largely funded by the Harbinger Fund, a hedge fund/private equity firm that's putting up the capital to run the company until they can turn on the service and start making income (in itself, nothing wrong here - it's really very common).  Harbinger is a fund that has been around for quite some time, but is now putting almost all of its eggs in the LightSquared basket.

The national policy center asks, "Did Harbinger Hedge Fund Buy Influence With the White House?" 
None of Mr. Falcone's plans would be successful, however, unless he was successful in persuading the Administration and the FCC to intervene on his behalf.  And over the course of the past year, a series of odd decisions, questionable meetings and procedural anomalies at the Federal Communications Commission and White House highlight Mr. Falcone's growing influence in the hallways of government.
oh, there's more:
During FCC merger proceedings, parties typically file confidential materials that are protected from the public.  Under FCC rules, however, the public must be notified within 24 hours that a filing of confidential material was submitted into the record.  In this case, the FCC withheld Harbinger's letter and the merger conditions from public disclosure for more than a month.
and more:
On April 21, 2010 Senators Hutchinson, DeMint, Vitter and Brownback sent FCC Chairman Genachowski a joint letter with numerous inquiries regarding the Falcone transaction.[8]  On May 10, Genachowski replied with a non-responsive letter.   These correspondences were not posted electronically for weeks after they were filed.  In addition to violating FCC procedure and precedent, the FCC's actions in withholding these documents from public view directly contradicts Chairman Genachowski's promise to maintain an open and transparent process at the FCC.  (emphasis added - GB)

Yeah, just like the president got his award for transparency and openness in a closed door, private ceremony. 

And stuff that looks like it's just barely legal:

On September 30, 2009, one week after his September 2009 White House visit, Mr. Falcone contributed $30,400 to the DSCC -- the maximum legal individual contribution limit to a party committee. His wife, Lisa Falcone, contributed an additional $30,400 to the DSCC on the same day.  (LightSquared's new CEO Sanjiv Ahuja also contributed $30,400 to the DNC in September of 2010).[12]

Oh, and guess who else is involved?  C'mon.  Guess. 
In 2009, while some investors were asking for withdrawals, others were lining up to put money into Harbinger. They included Soros Fund Management, which during the past year became a significant new investor, say people familiar with the matter.  (emphasis added - GB)
Oh, this is going to go well.  GPS receivers are going to be rendered worthless, consumers will suffer, aviation will suffer, everyone will suffer except for the FCC guys who get some cash hidden somewhere for them, Falcone, Soros and some investors.  The gutsiest, ballsiest - yet stupidest - thing I read was from the guy who said the problem wasn't LightSquared - it was that GPS receivers were eavesdropping on LightSquared's frequencies (which haven't technically been allocated to them, yet)!
But Hays said GPS receivers are “eavesdropping on signals outside of where they are supposed to be” — in LightSquared’s space.
Meanwhile:
In granting the waiver, the FCC chose to issue a license modification for LightSquared because of what they term "unique" circumstances, instead of modifying its rules to apply to all providers-- essentially guaranteeing that Mr. Falcone, and only Mr. Falcone, receives this special treatment. (emphasis added - GB)
Must be nice to be able to afford to buy folks like Genachowski and the FCC.  If I had wanted to live in a Banana Republic, I would have moved.  Looks like one moved in here.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Odds and Ends Round Up - An Occasional Series

Time for LightSquared to put up or shut up.  As I said on Saturday, broadband company LightSquared tested their plan to put up broadband services next to the GPS band and was to send a report to the FCC this week. 

UrgentComm reports there's a massive gap between LightSquared and the GPS industry. 
Speaking at an event sponsored by the National Space-Based PNT Advisory Board, Trimble Vice President and General Counsel Jim Kirkland recently called on the FCC to focus its efforts on moving LightSquared to new spectrum. “It's time for the FCC to stop squandering resources trying to find a solution to an unfixable problem.  Instead, it should focus its efforts on finding spectrum that LightSquared can operate in — where LightSquared won't interfere with GPS,” Kirkland said.
LightSquared believes there is a fix.  The GPS industry believes there isn't.  Time for the newcomers to put up or shut up.

One of the things I like about radio design is that my circuits don't care how I feel about them.  They don't care if I think they're the most clever thing in the world.  They'll work the way physics demands they work - or not.  Call it trial by fire.  That applies to LightSquared here.  If you guys know a way around, put it up.  If not, go back home.  Personally, I don't believe there is a fix.  If there was something they could do on their end, why wait?  Why not just show you can fix it from the start?

Of course, if we see the FCC give them authorization we'll know that they don't give a crap about protecting existing services.  If the FCC allows it, an astute investigator should look for signs of unaccountable, unearned income in the FCC staff.  Perhaps an extra car, extra vacation home.  That sort of thing. 


On a very different topic, I'm sure most have noticed the Dow is looking pretty crappy.  I got this graph in my daily mail from Stocktiming.com
The chart shows (as it says) the core holdings of the big institutional investors.  You'll see the obvious increasing channel since August of 2010.  Around March, the index fell out of the channel, below the support line, but continued to climb only now with the resistance line (doesn't want to go above) being the former support line (doesn't want to go below).  This is referred to as "climbing a wall of worry".  And then in mid-May, it broke that second support and has been falling ever since.  Not exactly free fall, but not good either.  On this indicator, I don't see any natural place for this to stop. 

I think it's going to be a rocky summer.

Oh, and I should let my loyal readers know that I am not a lesbian. 

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Is It Malice or Stupidity? Part 2

Last night, a friend sent me an email pointing out how the city council of Cedar Falls, Iowa was set to vote on a policy that citizens are required to provide a key that firefighters can use to access their property.   The bill passed on the vote last night, effectively (in my mind) eliminating private property in the city.  I see way too many problems with this idea to ever support it. So what is it? 

To begin with, at this time it does not apply to single family homes, but to apartment buildings with "three or more" units.  A previous law just like this applied to commercial property.  If you own a duplex and rent out half of it, you are exempt; a triplex (obviously) falls under this one.  The articles say they are doing this to comply with the 2009 version of the "International Fire Code".  Wikipedia doesn't have an entry for "International Fire Code", but it wasn't too hard to find it.  (h/t to remixx world). 

The lock boxes that are required in Cedar Falls, from the WCF Courier.  A few seconds of search engine-fu shows it looks very much like a "Knox Box model 1659"

Do you have a problem with this?  I sure do.  To begin with, this is like giving the keys to your house to a total stranger to hang in the open in an unlocked office - with your address on it.  Anyone who wants it is going to get it. 

I guarantee you someone who is not authorized can open that box.  The first thought is to take a sledgehammer, break it off the wall, and open it.  If breaking it off didn't open it, I'd take it home and use a bandsaw.  Criminals might be lazier.  Think you can pick that lock?  I'm sure someone could.  Brute force methods like that aren't very sophisticated.  A social engineering approach should work.  I'm sure you've seen that the operators in 911 call centers and other police dispatchers have been romanced by low lifes, so they can get inside info on where the cops are.  I can imagine someone getting to know a gullible person just to get that key.  It really is "the key to the city".

I find it hard to believe that "the only ones" will be the only ones to get that key.  In fact, a famous case in Seattle rolled up hundreds of thousands of dollars in thefts from use of the Knox Boxes.

So is it malice or stupidity?  In this case, I'm going to go with stupidity on the part of the council.  This is apparently a widespread initiative.  In searching for references I used here, I found links to fire departments doing the same thing all around the nation.  I would hope this would be voluntary - if you want it for those "I've fallen and I can't get up" situations - fine.  If you want to pay for it, fine.  But to make it a legal requirement is going too far. 
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. — C.S. Lewis
It sure will make those "Sneak and Peek" searches easier for the fed.gov, though, won't it?  

Monday, June 13, 2011

Is It Malice or Stupidity?

I'm sure you all know the old saying, "never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity".  In a way this goes with the saying, "once is an accident, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action". 

While the whole Fed.Gov seems to compete intensely for the title, few would argue FEMA could claim to be the most incompetent agency in the country.  They were the target of the media's attempts to destroy George W. Bush after Katrina, right?  They're not better now, the "thrill up the leg" media just doesn't report on it since The One is in office. 

Courtesy of "The Blaze", we find this story of FEMA malice or stupidity:
Jefferson County resident Jonathan Stewart said he laughed in shock after the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) claimed the house his family lost in the deadly April 27 twister was ‘not unsafe to live in’.
Mr. Stewart, family and his "house":
"Not unsafe to live in"?  I suppose the roof isn't going to fall in on them - it's probably in the next county.  No windows to fall on them either.  Nothing except maybe bird droppings. 

Malice or stupidity?  If it's true that "once is an accident, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action", there's more than three of these reported in that Blaze article.  Kinda reminds me of the story about Texas being denied aid for their fires.  Which means both of these are probably purely political decisions. 

Sunday, June 12, 2011

More Tales From The Over-Regulated State - A Series

H/T to John at Improved Clinch for this link:  Ninja Bureaucrats on the Loose
”The government,” wrote 50-year-old Denise Simon, “is too big to fight.” With those words, in a note to her 17-year-old son, Adam, she explained why she was committing suicide (via carbon monoxide) three days after 10 visibly armed IRS agents in bulletproof vests had stormed her home on Nov. 6, 2007, in search of evidence of tax evasion. Her 10-year-old daughter, Rachel, was there with Simon when the agents stormed in.
John's money quote was a different paragraph, describing how such unlikely agencies as the Railroad Retirement Board have their own armed agents.  I'd rather emphasize this paragraph:
Agents in some of these entities seem prone to ostentatious shows of force or to sending in armed FBI personnel on unnecessary occasions. There was the November 1997 raid on the Massachusetts pollution-control-technology company owned by James M. Knott Sr., in which 21 EPA agents, many armed, swooped in to collect “discharge” readings - and then falsified the results. Similarly, an April 29, 1998, New York Times story reported that “three businessmen told the Senate Finance Committee today of Internal Revenue Service agents who, with guns drawn, broke down doors, terrified workers and forced teenage girls to change clothes in front of male agents in raids at the men’s homes and businesses.”
and I remember writing about this when it happened:
Consider also the case, now infamous, of inventor Krister Evertson. On May 27, 2004, Mr. Evertson was preparing in Wasilla, Alaska, for a private gold-mining expedition to raise more funds for his research into clean-energy fuel cells. Federal agents in two black sport utility vehicles, waving assault rifles, forced his car off the road. Manhandling him as if he were a terrorist, they arrested, interrogated and jailed him. For what? Putting the wrong shipping label - with the correct instructions, mind you, but still the wrong label - on a box of raw sodium that he sold on eBay.
I see two root cause problems.  First, the over growth of the Fed.gov hydra along with an unending supply of militarized police forces and Second, overcriminalization - or, as I've said many times, we need to throw out around 75% of the CFR.

The Heritage Foundation, (disclaimer: I'm a member, and the extent of that is to having paid "dues" for a couple of years) has produced a book and (had?) a blog called One Nation Under Arrest.  The book is subtitled "How Crazy Laws, Rogue Prosecutors, and Activist Judges Threaten Your Liberty".
Heritage fellow Jack Park kicks off the series today. He relates how George Norris, a 67-year-old husband and grandfather, ended up spending almost two years in federal prison. Some of Norris’s paperwork for his home-based orchid business did not meet all of the technical requirements of an international treaty. None of his orchids were illegal to import, possess, or sell, but that did not stop the government from prosecuting and imprisoning him.
A couple of days ago,  Mike over at Sipsey Street said,  "Sooner or later, some Federal DOE thugs are going to get killed doing this, and, I have to tell you, I won't shed a frigging tear for their corpses."  

This was obviously about the DoE SWAT Team invading a California home. Originally reported as being for defaulted student loans, that was later changed to a fraud investigation.  I don't care.

The fracking Department of Education shouldn't have a SWAT Team. They shouldn't be running any sort of warrants, let alone no-knock warrants. I don't care if they were there for some sort of fraud and not because she was behind in her loans. This is a white collar crime with a person that could have been dealt with in a hundred other ways.  The tiniest bit of intelligence effort would have revealed she doesn't even live there.   Instead, they break in like they're trying to take down Pablo Escobar's cocaine cartel.  This.  Must.  Stop. 

Saturday, June 11, 2011

What's Wrong With The FCC?

I've said several times that I think the Federal Communications Commission has become a useless organization and needs to be shut down - or, at best, made into a tiny administrative office.  Here's a couple of good examples:

The first time I started to think that was when they made broadband over power lines, or BPL, legal (sometimes called  Power Line Communications, PLC).  Assuming you've not read about this, during the Bush administration, under the "leadership" of Micheal Powell (Colin's son), a group of companies petitioned the FCC to allow the distribution of broadband signals over the AC power lines (good summaries here and here).  Eventually, they were granted this privilege.  What's wrong with that?  The broadband signals they want to use are wide bandwidth signals that will cover much of the HF spectrum.  The inescapable physics of BPL says the power lines will radiate that broadband energy, interfering with lawful users.  You see, the spectrum is allocated to users for specific purposes.  Since the HF spectrum is among the first parts of the spectrum ever allocated, the entire HF spectrum is allocated to other users.   What the FCC said in allowing this was "you established users are going to be interfered with, so you can take each other to court".  This was unprecedented in US law!  The US is signatory to treaties that license the HF spectrum to users on a "not to be interfered with" basis.  The FCC was obligated to protect those users, but didn't, saying if you don't like the situation and can't resolve it between you, go to court.  A key fact is that the rule authorizing BPL mandated keep-away zones around the FCC's installations.  This means they knew that interference was unavoidable, and wanted to protect themselves.  An "only ones" behavior - from a different agency. 

I don't want to spend too much time here.  There are many YouTube videos and other sources online that will show you how bad the interference is.  Other nations (Japan, for example) studied the situation and refused to allow BPL.  The point is that the FCC acted in a way they shouldn't and the technical experts were told to sit down and shut up.

The BPL decision was years ago.  Another example is going on today.  A company called LightSquared wants to put up broadband services in a different part of the radio spectrum, adjacent to the GPS services.  This service will interfere with GPS.  While they haven't ruled on the application yet, the FCC is apparently leaning toward allowing it, by asking them to run tests.  Now losing the GPS in your car while you're driving around town is inconvenient but probably not fatal ... most of the time.  Unfortunately, for airlines relying on GPS navigation, it will cause interference and could cause catastrophe.  The aviation advisory group, Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics, puts it this way:
Given the size of the planned deployment, “GPS-based operations below about 2000 feet will be unavailable over a large radius from the metro deployment center (assuming no other metro deployments are nearby),” the executive summary stated. “Given the situation in the high altitude U.S. East Coast scenario, GPS-based operations will likely be unavailable over a whole region at any normal aircraft altitude.”

I should point out that airlines don't generally use GPS for their primary navigation; GPS is a fairly recent system, while aircraft have been flying with radio navigation since the early days of flight. 

And it's not just airplanes or your dashboard GPS that can be wiped out over wide areas.  The WSJ said this:
Public safety officials near the testing area reported LightSquared's tower knocked out their GPS systems in some areas, according to Bill Range, New Mexico's E-911 program director, in a letter to federal officials. On Friday, construction giant Deere & Co. also reported to the FCC the risk of "severe interference" on its tractors GPS systems
from as far as 20 miles away from a LightSquared tower and "a complete loss of service" between four miles and 22 miles.
The GPS signal is set up to be very weak at the receiver to save power, weight and cost on the satellite transmitters, so strong nearby signals can inadvertently jam it.  It's possible that "professional" grade receivers could be modified with the addition of some filtering or other improvements.  If the FCC approves LightSquared's system, are they forcing everyone in the US with a GPS receiver to get it modified or replaced? 

Urgent Communications, a radio trade publication for police and other first responders, puts it this way.    
The question then is: Who is going to pay to fix it? This is what the fight is really going to be about.
I suspect this is a trick question, unless LightSquared has to provide new GPS receivers for everyone.  Otherwise, if local first responders pay for it, the taxpayers buy it, and if the FCC has the Fed.gov pay for it, the taxpayers buy it, too.  

Here's the conundrum.  This is exactly the role that intelligent regulators should have.  The spectrum in question is completely allocated or assigned, and some "bright boys" invent a new system.  The FCC should impartially evaluate the technology and either allocate or reject the application; they should work with the licensed users.  They have legal requirements to not allow licensed users to be interfered with.  Instead of the technical guys evaluating whether or not there's interference, the lawyers set up a confrontational system where they require every license holder to either spend money to change their technology or spend money to fight the interference in court.  That's bullcrap.  The Commission shouldn't be lawyers; it should be engineers. 

Friday, June 10, 2011

Let's Tie A Couple of Stories Together

The Economic Collapse Blog ran a story that the Chinese are involved in negotiations to build a 50 square mile city near Boise, Idaho.  This was picked up by WSRA - hat tip for the link.

The Chinese are making more inroads into the US - buying their way in.  They are overflowing with US dollars from the trade imbalance, and we owe them much more.  In effect, they are getting their payback in land and other benefits.  

I've pointed out for as long as I've been aware that the Chinese are getting rid of dollars and going on a buying spree - not just buying gold, say, but buying gold mines and buying up scrap metal lots.  This is more of the same.  Their version of Moody's bond ratings says that we've already defaulted on our debt, so what can we pay them back with?  What do they need the most?  Arable farmland to feed their billions.  Since about 3/4 of the western states are Federally owned lands, what else can we pay them back with.  (Yes, I know their bond rating service is likely biased against us; I think Moody's and the others are biased in our favor.  Would you loan money to this government?)

I think we're seeing nothing less than America being taken apart.  It's the first Nation Going Out of Business Sale.  Not "National".  Not "Nationwide".  It's America's financial collapse hitting the accelerator.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

More Tales From the Over-Regulated State

Tennessee has passed a law that anyone who posts a picture online that causes "emotional distress" to anyone, anywhere at anytime, is subject to fines and or imprisonment. 
The specific law outlaws posting a photo online that causes "emotional distress" to someone and has no "legitimate purpose." While the law does state that there needs to be "malicious intent," it also includes a massive loophole, in that it says that you can still be liable if the person "reasonably should know" that the actions would "frighten, intimidate or cause emotional distress."
Seems unconstitutional on its face, but that doesn't seem to mean much anymore.  Just more ways to bend you to their insane wills. 

Read the whole thing.  It's short.

Say, isn't Oleg in Tennessee? 

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

"The Universal Currency is Energy"

Someone (I think it was R.A. Heinlein) once said that energy is the universal currency.  All transactions between people reduce to transactions about energy.  Think about it: what's the most fundamental of your needs?  Food and shelter.  What is food other than energy to run you?  How do you build your home?  Don't you need energy to make your home livable; to separate the inside from the outside?  If you buy anything, you're trading some of your concentrated energy for someone else's.

For as much of my life as I can remember, people have been preaching that we are running out of oil and we needed alternatives.  I first remember seeing the term "peak oil" invoked in the second 1970s gas crisis, when OPEC was deliberately raising the price of their product to gouge us.  When we started making motions to develop our own resources - rather than just talking about it - the price of oil came down.  A lesson for today?  It seems every 10 or 15 years or so, someone else announces we're at peak oil and the world will soon be ending. 

Environmentalists and other idiots are always screaming how we need green energy or renewable energy; both terms are code.  What they mean is they want to return the world to some idealized pre-industrial state that never existed.  They want fewer people, and some have fantasized about killing up to 98% of humanity.  It's not just about magical unicorn farts to power everything. 

Enter Alex Epstein of the Ayn Rand Institute with a great review article "Four Dirty Secrets About Clean Energy".  This is a well thought out piece, and worth the time to read.
  1. Dirty Secret #1: If “clean energy” were actually cheaper than fossil fuels, it wouldn’t need a policy.
  2. Dirty Secret #2: Clean energy advocates want to force us to use solar, wind, and biofuels, even though there is no evidence these can power modern civilization.
  3. Dirty Secret #3: There are promising carbon-free energy sources--hydroelectric and nuclear--but “clean energy” policies oppose them as not “green” enough.
  4. Dirty Secret #4: The environmentalists behind clean energy policy are anti-energy.
Talking about the desire to see humans wiped off the planet may seem like I'm going too far, but it's real.  In 2007, when senator Obama famously said "under my cap and trade plan, energy prices would necessarily skyrocket", he didn't say that it would necessarily kill people on the lower rungs of our society --- but it's hard for me to believe he doesn't know that, if he's as smart as his peg boys say.  Earlier in the week, WSRA linked to Francis Poretto's piece Causes of Death.  If you haven't read that, please do. 

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

I Hate It When You Lie Like That

The Bernank says that the economy will resume growing once again as we recover from disruptions from the Japanese earthquake/tsunami disaster.  The bad numbers last month are only due to short term "head winds" or a "bump in the road".
The problem is, that when you account for their printing press, the economy isn't growing.  When you look at the source for that pathetic "54,000 jobs created" we saw reported, it's from using the Bureau of Labor Statistics birth/death model - it's not measured or reported jobs. 

Business Insider put up the numbers to analyze the GDP growth situation last Friday.
The Federal government borrowed and spent $5.1 trillion over the past four years to generate a cumulative $700 billion increase in the nation's GDP. That means we've borrowed and spent $7.28 for every $1 of nominal "growth" in GDP. (emphasis in original)
That's bad enough as it is.  Would you promise to pay $7.28 to get $1?  Maybe if you desperately needed to get you car out of the shop or some emergency like that, and the only guy who would lend it to you was "Friendly Guido", the local loan shark, but you sure couldn't make a steady living out of it.  As I frequently say: "don't worry: it's not that bad.  It's worse".
In constant dollars, GDP is flat: we got no growth at all for our $5.1 trillion: zip, zero, nada. In constant dollars, the GDP in 2011 might return to the 2007 level, if the economy continues "growing" at the same pace reached in the first three months of 2011. If not, then the GDP will actually be lower than pre-recession levels.
The Fed has pumped amazing amounts of money into the system.  After all, they need to create that money if they're going to keep up with the incredibly prodigious deficit spending of the Obama administration, considering China is essentially getting out of US Treasuries

As I've said a couple of times already, I believe QE3 is going to happen.  It is simply the only thing they know how to do.  The dip in the broad stock market indexes could be caused by the people who want QE3 putting pressure on the banksters.  And it may be the old adage "sell in May and go away".  A look at this 6-month chart shows clearly that the S&P 500 has been essentially flat since mid February. 

Monday, June 6, 2011

I Sincerely Hope You're Storing Food

Amid all the stories about the wicked problem with produce contaminated by E. coli in Europe, it's not being emphasized that massive amounts of food are being destroyed.  In Spain, Germany, the Czech Republic and the UK.  I don't know how this food will be made up, or what the percentage of damage is, but it has to press food prices up. 

Here in the US, Corn planting is late in the upper Midwest, which is still sopping wet from the winter and (alleged) spring.  The situation appears to be the same in the Northeast, where it seemed to be  a record winter for snowfall.  Much of this corn is grown for animal feed; not having the feed is going to increase demand on corn from somewhere else, but it's looking like there's no such place as "else". 

Texas is still almost completely in drought conditions, which will put pressure on cattle ranchers.  In Arkansas, the situation is schizophrenic.  "Tyson Privett, an extension agent in northeast Mississippi County, summed up the two extremes: On one side of the county's levee system, corn and other crops are starting to shrivel up. On the other side, hundreds of acres of farmland are still flooded."  Let's not even get started on the lower Mississippi area, where floods have not receded enough, and a lot of that land is not going to be usable for years. 

I know I've beaten on this drum before, but better to have and not need than need and not have.  Food prices are going to continue to go up.  And coffee really is like guns: two supplies is one and one is none. 

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Unintended Consequences

No, not the book.

A while back, I recommended you watch the National Inflation Association's video, The College Conspiracy, viewable on their page, or on YouTube.  If you haven't spent the hour watching it; perhaps you don't have kids of that age, or you think you know the story anyway, I still recommend watching it.  There's an important idea in there that is a partial explanation for the mess we find ourselves in as a nation.  This thought has been tugging at the back of my head since I watched that in mid-May.

There's a scene in there starting at the 45:24 minute mark, where a young guy named Ethan Jacobs talks about his experiences with going to law school.  This is in the midst of a long section on the fraud perpetrated by law schools (as an example, they tell students that "80% of our students get a job after graduation" but include jobs as night clerks in Walmart, or working as the law school janitor).  He starts out by saying in his opening weeks of law school he found that while he thought the purpose of the law was to help create freedom, liberty and justice, he found the law was a there to create jobs for lawyers.  The devastating effects of all this law and regulation, created simply as make-work for lawyers by lawyers, are destroying our country.

Billy Shakespeare famously said (King Henry VI - Part 2, Act IV, Scene II) "The first thing we do: let's kill all the lawyers".   He meant that the lawyers were the protectors of the people - protecting them from the tyrants.  Historically, it always seems to work out that those who set themselves up that way become the tyrants themselves.  Daniel Webster said,
In every generation, there are those who want to rule well--but they mean to rule. They promise to be good masters--but they mean to be masters.
There are worse ideas than Billy's. 

Saturday, June 4, 2011

This Week's Worry: Do Cellphones Cause Cancer?

The news this week was all a-twitter about the World Health Organization declaring the electromagnetic fields from a cell phone as “potential” cancer agent, classifying it with diesel fumes, dry cleaning fluid, talcum powder and automobile exhaust.  Like all radios, cellphones emit non-ionizing radiation, totally unlike atomic sources.  It is simply radio, at a frequency (coincidentally enough) fairly close to where microwave ovens operate.  If cellphones are dangerous, all radios are. 

Fair enough: is radio dangerous?  Certainly some of it is.  We all know for sure that if we put Mr. Hamster in the Microwave oven, Bad Things happen.  But is that transmitter down the road safe?  How do we know?

Let me start by pointing out my biases.  I am an electrical engineer who specializes in doing radio frequency design.  I'm also a radio amateur - ham radio operator.  The two of those combine to mean I work with and am physically immersed in radio fields most of the time.  I consider myself a fairly careful guy and if I thought it was dangerous or would cause a long term problem like cancer I'd get out of it and do something else.  Years ago, though, I worked with a guy who would walk far out of his way to avoid a piece of test equipment I was using, so that he could go outside to smoke.  I guarantee you that the nanowatts of energy he might get from that equipment was much, much less hazardous than what he was getting from his cigarettes! 

Electromagnetic radiation exists in a spectrum whose frequency extends from below audio frequencies (less than a cycle per second) through radio, through light, x-rays, gamma rays and beyond.  All common broadcast radio, cable TV, satellite TV, data, Bluetooth, WiFi, 3G, 4G and other services, use radio waves.  It has been pointed out that we live in a constant electromagnetic “smog” of all those EM sources (and more).
(xkcd)

I find that many people don't understand the difference between the two major types of radiation; ionizing and non-ionizing.  Ionizing radiation is energetic enough to, as the name says, knock electrons off an atom and form an ion.  There is a relationship between energy and wavelength (the DeBroglie wavelength), and all ionizing radiation is extremely short in wavelength; far ultraviolet, x-rays, gamma rays and beyond.  For example, the wavelength of an x-ray is centered around 1 nanometer (billionth of a meter) and gamma rays are centered around 10 picometers (trillionths of a meter) while cellphone radiation is centered around 20 centimeters; 200 million times longer wave (lower in energy) than the less energetic X-rays.  X-rays and gamma rays are genuinely dangerous, so the idea isn't that electromagnetic energy isn't dangerous; the idea is that the longer the wavelength, the less energetic the EM wave.

The only absolutely proven effects of radio frequency or power line emissions (besides electric shock from contact) are heat related and the National Cancer Institute is in agreement on that.  The most common heat effect is cataracts: if your head gets irradiated by a strong enough radio field, the circulation in your corneas is so limited (diffusion, really) that your corneas can cook and turn opaque.  If you were exposed to a radio field on the order of that in a microwave oven, you would cook as easily as any other hunk of meat.  When you reduce the power in the field, though, there are no demonstrated, medically proven effects from radio fields besides the thermal effects.  Studies show up from time to time that offer glimpses of other effects, even though there is no known mechanism that could explain them.  Follow-up studies usually don’t show these effects, leading to the tentative conclusion that the effect was some sort of statistical noise or really correlated with something else.  These studies bother some people, but they don’t bother me.  Why?  Simply if you have many people looking for an effect and it behaves like this, either there is no link, it's a very weak link, or the link is really to something else that isn't present in every study. 

For example, over 20 years ago, I read of a study that black and white televisions correlated with leukemia.  Black and white television, not color?  Even 20 years ago, the only people who used black and white TVs were pretty low income.  Poverty, it turns out, is associated with all sorts of negative health impacts.  It's easier to come up with an explanation of how poverty could lead to leukemia than how black and white TV sets could.  You will see the same argument about proximity to power lines causing leukemia or other problems; could it be the property values under the power lines are low, and mainly lower income people live there?  Again, it's easier to see how poverty could cause health problems than it is to see how 60 Hz fields could cause them. 

You regularly read about people who claim to be sensitive to EM fields in general, and who claim health effects of all kinds.  The thing is, as I mentioned above, everyone in modern society is immersed in a soup of radio signals from AM broadcast up through microwaves; they're in the near field of the AC power line, exposed to TV transmitters, radars… and don’t forget that the sun bombards us with radio signals, too.  The strengths are widely variable, but everyone in the western world is within one wavelength of an AC power line (which is five million meters – 3100 miles - for the US 60 Hz lines). 

There’s a saying in toxicology that the dose makes the poison.  The same concept applies here: while in the case of sticking your head in a running microwave oven, harm is guaranteed; in low doses, I see no evidence of harm from radio fields (and radio fields are used as physical therapy - diathermy, or as local heaters for prostate cancer).  In the case of a nearby transmitter, the dose is moderated by distance and the power from a radio field drops off very rapidly with distance, because it radiates in all directions.  Think of a candle flame, radiating light in all directions and lighting the inside of a sphere centered on it.  If you double the distance to the candle, the light spreads out over four times the area, so the light is ¼ the intensity.  This is called an inverse square law, and power drops off very quickly.  If you’re far enough away from the antenna that it looks like a point, the field drops off like this.  If the antenna looks like a line, say the power line from a few hundred yards, the field drops off proportion to distance, not distance squared. 

(picture credit
Let’s consider an example of an FM transmitter, one of the big ones, 50 kW.  Now 50 kW is a lot of power, but due to the inverse square law, you have to be very close to the antenna to be hurt by it.  Imagine standing at the base of the tower and imagine it can radiate you well there (it can’t – it’s aimed toward the horizon).  Just 200 feet away, that power has dropped from 50 thousand watts to less than 1 W (760 milliwatts).  Is that dangerous?  The standards organization that made the standards for radio exposure (based on heating) says 200 microwatts per square centimeter at this frequency should be the limit.  The area of a sphere that big in diameter is 502.7 thousand square feet or 467 million square centimeters.  Divide 760 milliwatts over 467 million square centimeters, and you get 1.6 billionth of a watt per square centimeter.  The safety limit is over 125,000 times bigger than that.  Sounds pretty safe!

The inverse square relationship means that if you cut the distance to the antenna in half, the power goes up by a factor of four.  What if you were 100 feet away from the transmitter?  Instead of being 125,000 times weaker than the limit, the field would be 31,000 times weaker.  50 feet away?  7800 times weaker than the limit.  You almost have to be holding the antenna to be in trouble (almost…). 

The story is a bit more complicated than that.  The amount of power you can handle depends on how much you absorb, which depends on the size of the wavelength compared to your body size (structures about ¼ wavelength in size absorb quite efficiently; much smaller or much bigger are less efficient).  There are two reasons I chose an FM transmitter for this thought experiment.  First, an average-sized person is about a quarter wave tall when they’re standing up.  Sit down to change your size in wavelengths and you’ll absorb less power.  The second reason I chose FM is that it’s the lowest power limit the FCC requires.  By the time you get to the frequency of cellular phones, allowed levels are a few times higher. 

More complications: as frequency goes up, radio doesn't penetrate any conductor well, an effect known as the skin effect; in a wire, the energy travels in a skin with the thickness dependent on the frequency of the radio.  Tubes are as effective as wire at carrying radio.  The effects also depend on how much cooling the body part being irradiated gets.  You don't think of your body as a liquid-cooled fuel cell engine but you are; blood circulation acts to remove local heating.  A hand gets a lot of circulation, and the body’s trunk gets even more. Actually, getting efficient power transfer of radio signals is far from trivial to do, and being exposed to a field is really very different than being affected by it.  

You can do the sort of path loss and power calculations I just did to determine the amount of power at any distance from TV stations, AM radio stations, cell phone towers and so on, and you’ll find they’re not going to cause anyone to get more than the allowed radiation – usually by a factor of thousands.  No surprise - they were designed to meet the laws that limit exposure! 

So what about your phone?  What about the video of the iPhone power detector in the girl’s hand?  The effect she's demonstrating is that as she absorbs signal by wrapping her hand tightly around the antenna (which is why the reception gets bad), she keeps signal from reaching the base station, and the base commands her radio to increase power.  This is what the system is supposed to do. 


The maximum power out of a handset is less than 2 watts.  The exact amount of power you will be exposed to and how much will be absorbed from a phone held to your ear is a computational nightmare, and I'm convinced that computational difficulty is one reason why the “science isn't settled”.  If they could point to  consistent, repeatable calculations and measurements that show the power transferred to your ear and brain was less than the recommended limits, the hype may have died down by now.   Remember, you can't be exposed to all of the power radiating out of the phone; if you absorbed even most of it, not enough would reach the other end and the call would drop. 

When you see people say “does your ear fell warmer after you use your phone?”, consider that the phone gets warmer because the power amplifier isn't 100% efficient; it's more like 20% or less.  That means to get 1 watt out, you put at least 5 watts into the final amplifier and that other 4 watts warms the phone, along with anything in contact with it. 

During normal operation, the output power of the phone will vary depending on how good the signal path is from your location.  In an elevator or other metallic box, the phone will more likely be at full power.  In a place with better radio path characteristics, the power will be lower. The accepted value for how much power you'll be exposed to is around 1 mW/sq. cm., which is approximately the limit.  When I first started in radio design, the limit was 10 mW/sq. cm.; there were no massive studies they undertook to lower the limit, it was done to make US limits more like other country's limits.   

With cell phones as widespread as they are, if there were any sort of clear link between their use and cancer, it would have been determined by now.  Instead, what you get is the “we need more research” chorus.  The simple fact is that the only known effect caused by radio fields is heating.  Any researcher who wants to say otherwise needs to show possible mechanisms for the injury.  I believe this should have been put to bed years ago.  I don't believe there any health risk from radio other than the thermal effects.  You don't stick your head in the microwave, you don't stand in front of a search radar and you don't go grabbing antennas on operating transmitters putting out over 10 watts or so.  Other than that, don't worry.  

The most dangerous thing about a cellphone is talking on it while driving.  I say that as someone who was run down while riding their bike by a small pickup truck driven by someone distracted by their phone.

Friday, June 3, 2011

Tales From the Over-Regulated State

The Over-Regulated State doesn't sound quite as dramatic as Police State, but what are those police going to enforce except regulations?  One of Ayn Rand's more memorable quotes is:
"There's no way to rule innocent men.  The only power government has is the power to crack down on criminals.  Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them.  One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws."
There's a joke picture going around; perhaps you've seen this referred to a "The Compleat Guide to Women, Volume 1" (for example, here)
When I saw it, I thought "Code of Federal Regulations, Volume 1 of 9247, Abridged Edition"  

From the TechDirt pages, it seems the Fed.gov hydra wants to make it illegal to embed videos.   Naturally, if they're going to say such a thing they have to define the terms, so our Glorious Betters have decided:
If you embed a YouTube video that turns out to be infringing, and more than 10 people view it because of your link... you could be facing five years in jail.
Now, as for why it's a 5 year term if 10 people watch but not punishable if 8 people watch it, you'll have to ask our insect overlords.  Since having 20 people watch it is not materially worse than 10, that means 10 is some sort of magic number.   But just think of all the criminals they can create this way.  It's fantastic!

Does your head hurt?

How about Net Neutrality?  I've blogged on this a bunch of times (just enter the term in the search bar and you can read them in reverse chronological order), especially the incestuous relationship between FCC Chairman Julius "Seizure" Genachowski, and Robert McChesney of the openly Marxist "Free Press".  The two go way back.  I've said a bunch of times (in more words) that McChesney and "Free Press" would write the laws and the FCC will copy them onto their letterhead.

Who would have guessed
(Judicial Watch President Tom) Fitton added that "the FCC is supposed to be an independent agency that follows the law. The American people should be deeply troubled by the fact that the Obama administration, on issue after issue, seems to be run by shadowy leftist organizations."
Word.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Long Term Thoughts and Short Term Actions

I don't read Claire Wolfe as much as she deserves to be read.  I stumbled across a bookmark to her today and found an interesting piece, "What Do You Think You'd Do In a Hyperinflation?"  Her setup is:
"I’m not talking about some post-apocalyptic George Romero scenario where starving urbanites are crawling through your windows in search of your stash of freeze-dried potato dices and fruit galaxy. I’m talking about getting along — as people did in Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, and most other places when their currency went to toilet paper on them."
In both places, people fell back on other currencies and barter or an existing black market.  In Zimbabwe in particular, they fell back on US dollars.  In Weimar Republic, they used a variety of other exchange media as well as the dollar, but Germany wasn't the only place going through bad inflation at the time.  Austria is often overlooked, but was not much better.   The main difference between what we're facing and those places is that we won't have a stable reserve currency to fall back on.  That should make it worse here than it was there. 

It's almost 100% certain there won't be a Euro to fall back on - Greece is teetering closer to collapse and the survival of the entire EU shouldn't be taken for granted.  If the EU goes, there's really nothing else behind the Euro.  There's a link in that Business Insider story to an article in the UK Telegraph which lays out a good step-by-step look at what's likely to happen when (not if) Greece defaults. 


Think of this as the long term.  Perhaps. It may all go down later this summer or early next fall.  There's certainly a case to be made that some forces are trying to collapse the Western world - the EU then the US in rapid succession. 

Although, as I've said before, I believe all of the necessary conditions are in place for the collapse of the dollar.  Political things happen strangely slowly to my mind, but I work in a world where we worry about stray picoseconds of delay.  The slow pace of things gives us more time to prepare for a world of barter, and paying for lunch with a single 1964 quarter.  In the short term, shop sales on everything.  I won't recommend going into debt, but inflationary times are kind to debt, denominated in dollars.  If you get "cost of living" increases that inflate your pay, that old debt gets smaller. 


So what do we do to prepare?  Clive Maund, a commentator on markets who seems to do well, shows the technical plots that give support for the general press lately that the economy is going down again.  One of my interests is silver, so let me present his plot here:

Note that his prediction is for a rebound into the mid-$40 range through this month, but then to seriously correct down to the $30 level by August.  Given the "fall of a cliff" shape of the last correction, his slopes seem gentle. Regardless, it looks like we're in a bit of a buying opportunity now - with a chance for better buys in a month.  If you're on a regular buying program, just keep doing what you're doing. 

I agree with Maund's assessment that the big traders on Wall Street could be driving the big indexes (DJIA, S&P 500) to demand the next round of Quantitative Easing - QE3 - or whatever they're calling it this time.  For them, the Fed is giving them virtually free money to crank stocks up with.  "Money for Nothing" - Dire Straits had it wrong.  Don't be a rock musician.  Work for the Goldman Sachs. 

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Weiner Hacked

Has anyone seen Lorena Bobbitt



That is all.