Just not today. Today I've been patching some damage and doing some other prep to the garage walls so I can paint them tomorrow. (What Fun!... groan)
No, this is a little project that I've thought about a few times, but never gotten around to until now.
This is a "semi-hollow" body electric guitar kit. These kits are mostly what woodworkers consider finish work: sanding, staining, sanding and finishing - aside from gluing the neck in. You need to solder in and wire up all of the electronic parts like the pickups, volume and tone controls, and the output jack; it's not connectorized so that all you do is plug things together. The top is flamed maple veneer over maple (laminate) while the body and neck are mahogany, with the neck capped with rosewood. It actually looks pretty nice, although I'm sure I'll learn more about the details as I go along. I'm probably going to stain it a cherry sunburst (found an example - it might be there a while), and finish with gun stock oil, which is fairly popular among the kit builders.
The kit is patterned after the Gibson 335 model, rather popular with jazz players, although the neck looks different. The trapezoidal synthetic pearl inlays are more like a Les Paul (not that it matters). I don't expect it to sound as good as "real" one, but I saw one video of a homebuilt that looked like this kit, and that one sounded OK. (The video is here but don't watch the whole thing unless either (a) you're a masochist, or (b) you're really into this stuff. If you want to hear what it sounds like go to the 8:00 mark for a minute or so.)
In the World of the High Tech Redneck, the Graybeard is the old guy who earned his gray by making all the mistakes, and tries to keep the young 'uns from repeating them. Silicon Graybeard is my term for an old hardware engineer; a circuit designer. The focus of this blog is on doing things, from radio to home machine shops and making all kinds of things, along with comments from a retired radio engineer, that run from tech, science or space news to economics; from firearms to world events.
Saturday, January 10, 2015
Friday, January 9, 2015
Thursday, January 8, 2015
BATFE - Making It Up on the Fly Since, Well, Forever
I don't know how many of you saw this item that happened recently, but JPFO sent a link from David Codrea saying that in their first ruling of the year, BATFE has made up some interesting rules out of new cloth. I don't believe for a zeptosecond that the anti-gunners are happy with the idea that you can make your own gun for yourself (ZOMG!!! Ghost guns!!11!) and there are absolutely anti-gun forces in the BATFE, even ignoring their rabidly anti-gun bosses willing to kill thousands to get a push for tighter laws. These rulings make it harder for anyone who is interested in 80% lowers.
Kurt Hoffman writes the JPFO piece and describes the ruling.
But let's bring it down to the hobby level. It says, for example, that I can't let you come over to my place, and I pop your lower onto my CNC mill and run a Gcode file in exchange for a pizza or something. I think I could let you use my equipment as long as no payment changes hands, which would be like the machine shop above renting out its equipment. But as Kurt says, "if renting out access to one's machining equipment, which is then used to manufacture a gun, is to be considered "being in the business of" manufacturing firearms, how is selling the equipment any different?" Does this make Grizzly, Horrible Freight, Little Machine Shop and everyone selling machine tools into gun manufacturers?
Don't worry, it gets worse. BATFE has previously ruled that once you take that 80% lower and drill a single hole in the fire control cavity, or mark the area that has to be removed, or (as ARES did) make the area to be removed a different color, you have just made that piece of metal (legally, no different from paperweight) into a firearm. You're now the manufacturer.
This ruling backfired on BATFE almost immediately. After all, if making that drill hole made it a firearm, and it's now your legally owned firearm, why can't you take it to a gunsmith and have them complete it? After all, they handle legally owned guns all the time.
ARES, who has been fighting BATFE for almost a year now, must have been chortling and rolling on the floor laughing when they read this, but recovered enough to post this on that book with faces place.
(Original ARES polymer lower)
Kurt Hoffman writes the JPFO piece and describes the ruling.
(T)he Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATFE) has determined that a business, merely by making its machining equipment available for a fee, to individuals to use in building a firearm, has now "manufactured" the gun, and must meet all the requirements imposed on commercial gun manufacturers. This includes a gun manufacturer's license from the BATFE, the marking of the firearm (or receiver, which for legal purposes is the firearm) with a serial number, manufacturers' record keeping, and conducting a background check on the person who actually did the work in making the gun.What does that mean in daily use? Let's say you've bought an 80% lower and want to make an AR-15. You have a hand drill, but no milling machine or other even a good drill press (both of which will do the job), but you have a friend who works in a machine shop. Could you pay the shop a little something, maybe bring a box of donuts by when they open, in exchange for use of their machines? This ruling says no. I'm not sure this excludes you using the equipment if you yourself worked at the company, but if you're not paying anyone for use of the equipment, and they're not paying you your salary (that is, this is done on your own time - what we used to call a G job) I don't see this being equivalent to this ruling.
But let's bring it down to the hobby level. It says, for example, that I can't let you come over to my place, and I pop your lower onto my CNC mill and run a Gcode file in exchange for a pizza or something. I think I could let you use my equipment as long as no payment changes hands, which would be like the machine shop above renting out its equipment. But as Kurt says, "if renting out access to one's machining equipment, which is then used to manufacture a gun, is to be considered "being in the business of" manufacturing firearms, how is selling the equipment any different?" Does this make Grizzly, Horrible Freight, Little Machine Shop and everyone selling machine tools into gun manufacturers?
Don't worry, it gets worse. BATFE has previously ruled that once you take that 80% lower and drill a single hole in the fire control cavity, or mark the area that has to be removed, or (as ARES did) make the area to be removed a different color, you have just made that piece of metal (legally, no different from paperweight) into a firearm. You're now the manufacturer.
This ruling backfired on BATFE almost immediately. After all, if making that drill hole made it a firearm, and it's now your legally owned firearm, why can't you take it to a gunsmith and have them complete it? After all, they handle legally owned guns all the time.
ARES, who has been fighting BATFE for almost a year now, must have been chortling and rolling on the floor laughing when they read this, but recovered enough to post this on that book with faces place.
Question 1: So an 80% lower is not a firearm...Realizing they'd legislated themselves into a corner, the BATFE put language into this week's ruling to try to fix this. My version of the two paragraphs turned into a few words:
ATF Answer: Correct
Question 2: So if I drill a single hole in the fire-control pocket of an 80% lower then it is a firearm...
ATF Answer: Correct
Question 3: Ok then... If an 80% lower with one hole drilled in the FCP is a firearm... can I then take the firearm that I made at home to an FFL and have him complete the rest of the work because he isn't manufacturing the firearm, he is just "gunsmithing" the firearm... I already manufactured the firearm by drilling the hole so it should be no problem right...
ATF Answer: Oh Crap!!!!!!!! ummmmm... Let me get back to you on that. No that can't be right... There is no way you can do that... That is not fair! you cheated!
"Uhhh... gunsmiths don't do that. They fix guns and they can modify them, but gunsmiths don't use milling machines to make them. Because we say so."Kurt Hoffman again:
So now, any gunsmith or machinist who is hired by the "gun" owner to complete the machining is going to be ruled to have "manufactured" a gun, and will thus be held to the same restrictions that apply to all commercial gun manufacturers. The BATFE is insisting on having its cake and eating it, too. They have previously argued that an 80% receiver ceases to be an 80% receiver, and becomes a "firearm," if the manufacturer does so much as scratch an outline showing where material needs to be milled away; but now, if the buyer of what the BATFE recognizes as an incomplete receiver similarly removes some of the material that must be removed in order to make the receiver function in a firearm, and then turns it over to a skilled professional gunsmith or machinist to finish the work, the professional ends up being considered the one to have "manufactured" the gun.And now I'm going to do something I've hardly ever done: I'm going to quote myself from last March.
To me, the bottom line is that the BATFE might succeed in court against Ares and EP, but they will be unable to stop the 80% lower market as much as they hate it and want to shut it down. They might desperately want to keep people from being able to build guns, but they're bucking one of the most powerful trends in society. This is convergence, the new industrial revolution. With the advance of personal fabrication - the intersection of home CNC, 3D printing, continually more powerful digital electronics, what's called the Maker movement, it is literally getting to the point where you will be able to buy anything you need to make any gun you want. Dimensioned drawings for the AR family lowers are online; it doesn't take much to turn those into tool paths. The open source movement will provide that. To use the cliche' again, "you can't stop the signal".Trying to stop this new industrial revolution because you don't like it or you're afraid of it is like standing in the Bay of Fundy, yelling at the tide that it's not allowed to come in. Good luck with that.
(Original ARES polymer lower)
Wednesday, January 7, 2015
So Here We Are Again
Yet again, the civilized world has to bear not only the depraved antics of the Muslim murderers, we have to bear the pea-brained apologists telling us, "it's the religion of peace" or "yes, but it's just a small minority", or "what about the Christians or Jews or murder in the name of their religion?".
The news broke this morning while I was about to leave for work. Mrs. Graybeard assumed it was Muslim terrorists; I said, "I'll bet you any amount of money it wasn't the Amish". She replied, "When was the last time a busload of Rabbis did something like this?"
Of course we knew it was Muslims because it virtually always - always - is. And that's a problem.
Google and my high school French translate that as: "I'm not afraid of reprisals. I have no kids, no wife, no car, no credit. It probably makes it a bit pompous, but I prefer to die standing than to live kneeling".
I heard Dr Zuhdi Jasser, head of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, Cardiologist/Internist, and US Navy veteran, on Dana Loesch's TV show tonight. Dr. Jasser's organization is devoted to pushing for a reformation movement in Islam similar to the Christian reformation. One of his points was that the politically correct constant pandering to the violent Muslims by not condemning their views is actually giving them the advantage in society. The Western groups saying all religions are the same are preventing the dialog and change that Islam needs. Political correctness, yet again, is doing the exact wrong thing, and endangering us all.
The attack leaves me saddened, but more than that, it leaves me angry. I can easily see something like that happen here in America. I can easily see that happening to fellow bloggers whom I consider friends. There's a joke going around you may have heard that I'll give the name "cowboys and muslims" to. Without repeating the whole joke (here) the gist of it is a Montana cowboy, a Native American (hmm, I'm a native American... let's call him a Blackfeet Indian) and a muslim end up sitting next to each other in an airport. The Indian bemoans the fact that his people were once many and now they are few; the Muslim replies his people were one few in this land and now they are many, so why do you think that is? The Cowboy replies, "That's because we ain't played Cowboys and muslims, yet, boy".
I think the time is coming when we're going to need to play a serious game of Cowboys and muslims. None of this "run a few fighter sorties"; more like "What the hell do you mean we're out of ICBMs and MIRVs??"
Je suis Charlie. Nous sommes tous Charlie, si nous nous soucions
The news broke this morning while I was about to leave for work. Mrs. Graybeard assumed it was Muslim terrorists; I said, "I'll bet you any amount of money it wasn't the Amish". She replied, "When was the last time a busload of Rabbis did something like this?"
Of course we knew it was Muslims because it virtually always - always - is. And that's a problem.
Google and my high school French translate that as: "I'm not afraid of reprisals. I have no kids, no wife, no car, no credit. It probably makes it a bit pompous, but I prefer to die standing than to live kneeling".
I heard Dr Zuhdi Jasser, head of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, Cardiologist/Internist, and US Navy veteran, on Dana Loesch's TV show tonight. Dr. Jasser's organization is devoted to pushing for a reformation movement in Islam similar to the Christian reformation. One of his points was that the politically correct constant pandering to the violent Muslims by not condemning their views is actually giving them the advantage in society. The Western groups saying all religions are the same are preventing the dialog and change that Islam needs. Political correctness, yet again, is doing the exact wrong thing, and endangering us all.
The attack leaves me saddened, but more than that, it leaves me angry. I can easily see something like that happen here in America. I can easily see that happening to fellow bloggers whom I consider friends. There's a joke going around you may have heard that I'll give the name "cowboys and muslims" to. Without repeating the whole joke (here) the gist of it is a Montana cowboy, a Native American (hmm, I'm a native American... let's call him a Blackfeet Indian) and a muslim end up sitting next to each other in an airport. The Indian bemoans the fact that his people were once many and now they are few; the Muslim replies his people were one few in this land and now they are many, so why do you think that is? The Cowboy replies, "That's because we ain't played Cowboys and muslims, yet, boy".
I think the time is coming when we're going to need to play a serious game of Cowboys and muslims. None of this "run a few fighter sorties"; more like "What the hell do you mean we're out of ICBMs and MIRVs??"
Je suis Charlie. Nous sommes tous Charlie, si nous nous soucions
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Techy Tuesday - Radical Improvement in Aluminum Sheet Production
Aluminum giant Alcoa has announced a new way of producing aluminum sheet, called a Micromill. The eye opener is that they claim that the process time from when they melt the alloy constituents until the sheet is done has been reduced from 20 days to 20 minutes. Along the way, they get improvements in the sheet's characteristics: it's got 40% greater formability, and is 30% stronger. Those improvements, while noteworthy, aren't in the same class as the 20 days to 20 minutes.
In truth, it's a whole new way of making sheet and the times aren't exactly comparable. In an old plant, the aluminum was cast into enormous ingots, roughly 2 to 3 feet wide, 2 feet tall, and 20 feet long or longer. The ingots took most of that 20 days to cool to a temperature that could be manipulated and rolled. The Micromill pours the molten alloy, cools it in a thin layer and then rolls it into sheets. The Micromill reduces the size of the factory required to produce the sheet. Joe Butler, Alcoa Micromill plant manager, San Antonio Works, says a current aluminum mill "is usually contained within a quarter to a half mile, and we're doing it in about 150 ft." Another benefit is the process offers better microstructure of the metal crystals as they cool. All useful metal alloys are greatly influenced by the processing the alloy gets as well as the composition.
Alcoa has released an interesting PR video on the process.
The new process is primarily aimed at automobile sheet metals, replacing steel to save weight and meet the coming 2025 54.5 MPG CAFE standards the Obama administration mandated, but the technology allows them to alter the process to change the properties of the alloy coming off in a more fluid, seamless process. The benchmark of formability has been the steels the auto industry is familiar with, and aluminum hasn't allowed that. They claim this process yields aluminum sheet as formable as steel. That means they'll be able to get the shapes they want to produce in aluminum and not just steel.
Customer trials at Alcoa's pilot Micromill facility in San Antonio have already validated the material's characteristics, surface quality, and overall performance. Alcoa has also acquired a strategic development customer, and is now qualifying the new material for next-generation automotive platforms. Looks like Ford's aluminum F-150 pickup is just the first of a new wave.
In truth, it's a whole new way of making sheet and the times aren't exactly comparable. In an old plant, the aluminum was cast into enormous ingots, roughly 2 to 3 feet wide, 2 feet tall, and 20 feet long or longer. The ingots took most of that 20 days to cool to a temperature that could be manipulated and rolled. The Micromill pours the molten alloy, cools it in a thin layer and then rolls it into sheets. The Micromill reduces the size of the factory required to produce the sheet. Joe Butler, Alcoa Micromill plant manager, San Antonio Works, says a current aluminum mill "is usually contained within a quarter to a half mile, and we're doing it in about 150 ft." Another benefit is the process offers better microstructure of the metal crystals as they cool. All useful metal alloys are greatly influenced by the processing the alloy gets as well as the composition.
Alcoa has released an interesting PR video on the process.
The new process is primarily aimed at automobile sheet metals, replacing steel to save weight and meet the coming 2025 54.5 MPG CAFE standards the Obama administration mandated, but the technology allows them to alter the process to change the properties of the alloy coming off in a more fluid, seamless process. The benchmark of formability has been the steels the auto industry is familiar with, and aluminum hasn't allowed that. They claim this process yields aluminum sheet as formable as steel. That means they'll be able to get the shapes they want to produce in aluminum and not just steel.
Customer trials at Alcoa's pilot Micromill facility in San Antonio have already validated the material's characteristics, surface quality, and overall performance. Alcoa has also acquired a strategic development customer, and is now qualifying the new material for next-generation automotive platforms. Looks like Ford's aluminum F-150 pickup is just the first of a new wave.
Monday, January 5, 2015
Their "Inalienable Right" to Get In Your Face
As the momentum to continue their anti-police demonstrations fizzles, the diehards in the movement have decided they have a right to get in people's faces and interrupt their lunch or other personal moments.
Of course, it's only acceptable to do this to white people. According to the Mail (UK), the groups targeted areas they considered to "white spaces". Not just brunch spots, they even ended up protesting in the Apple Store in Berkeley.
I'm not sure what the definition of a "white space" is, since discrimination in restaurants is a violation of Federal laws, but this is even more stupid. How can she say a paying customer has no right to be there? Yet she, as a non-patron has a right to interrupt a business, piss off their customers and create a public nuisance? She doesn't want equal rights, she wants special treatment.
Of course they have the right to protest and say what they want, but those customers have their right to be left alone, and the restaurants have their right to run their businesses lawfully.
There was little in the way of push back, and some customers raised their fists in solidarity, possibly assuming they'd bepulled outside and skinned alive interrupted longer if they didn't. Of course, anyone knows that if you fought back against some form of attack, you'd be torn apart in the press as if set upon by wolves.
Of course, it's only acceptable to do this to white people. According to the Mail (UK), the groups targeted areas they considered to "white spaces". Not just brunch spots, they even ended up protesting in the Apple Store in Berkeley.
Dozens of demonstrators today stormed restaurants and targeted white diners in New York and California as part of a 'Black Brunch' protest against alleged police violence.At least one of the demonstrators took to Twitter to proclaim her disdain for people who thought they could go out for a peaceful, friendly meal with friends or family. (Found here)
Carrying banners, the chanting protesters entered a number of venues in New York City that they identified as 'white spaces', including midtown eateries: Lallisse, Maialino and Pershing Square.
Once inside, they 'disrupted' customers' meals by reading out the names of African-Americans killed by police, including Michael Brown, 17, who was shot dead by officer Darren Wilson last August.
Addressing staff and patrons, they shouted: 'Every 28 hours, a black person in America is killed by the police. These are our brothers and sisters. Today and every day, we honor their lives.'
I'm not sure what the definition of a "white space" is, since discrimination in restaurants is a violation of Federal laws, but this is even more stupid. How can she say a paying customer has no right to be there? Yet she, as a non-patron has a right to interrupt a business, piss off their customers and create a public nuisance? She doesn't want equal rights, she wants special treatment.
Of course they have the right to protest and say what they want, but those customers have their right to be left alone, and the restaurants have their right to run their businesses lawfully.
There was little in the way of push back, and some customers raised their fists in solidarity, possibly assuming they'd be
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It's Back to Work I Go...
Today was my last day of the Christmas/New Year's break; we closed on Tuesday 12/23 and I've been sleeping late, playing with tools, radios, guitars, recording boxes and just about anything I can think of since then. Tomorrow it's back on my head.
Today was pretty busy getting everything done I should have gotten done in the last 10 days. Out to the Bulk and Bundle Store to get some things for the house that are a bit big for Mrs. Graybeard to handle. Picked up a couple of draftsman's stools for the shop. The benches I used are tall and my selection of chairs isn't. Built one, and got a floor demo model for the other - which was made by monkeys. No time to think of a post.
Today was pretty busy getting everything done I should have gotten done in the last 10 days. Out to the Bulk and Bundle Store to get some things for the house that are a bit big for Mrs. Graybeard to handle. Picked up a couple of draftsman's stools for the shop. The benches I used are tall and my selection of chairs isn't. Built one, and got a floor demo model for the other - which was made by monkeys. No time to think of a post.
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Health and Pure, Dumb, Luck
I couldn't help but smirk at yesterday's story that despite all of our anguishing about eating the right things and avoiding all the wrong things that are causing cancer, two thirds of the time getting cancer comes down to pure, dumb, luck.
I've posted before about our experiences with cancer - probably the best summary here. In our talks with oncologists one of them left me with a quote that I'll never forget, "sometimes cells just freak out". I think the study confirms that view.
Research published in Science (the house journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science), showed two thirds of the cancer types analyzed were caused just by chance mutations rather than lifestyle. Naturally, the chattering class is saying this doesn't mean you can just do what you want. Who do you think you are? You're not allowed to live as you want.
Certainly smoking is so strongly linked to lung cancer that when doctors find non-smokers with the disease, they're considered remarkable cases, and the study doesn't say you can ignore that and go light up a few.
Beyond smoking, though, I personally think the links are weaker. Sun exposure is linked with skin cancer, but it's not the strongest link you can imagine. For example, melanoma, the most lethal type of skin cancer is often found on the soles of feet and in other places where most people don't expose themselves to the sun. The British Medical Journal published an article back in 2008 saying sunlight was not a major cause of melanoma. Chances are you've heard that you should get lots of fiber to prevent colon cancer, but that link has been discounted many times, such as this summary link to a 2005 JAMA article. I recall reading an article in student science journal saying the same thing about 20 years before that.
Cross-cultural dietary studies that give rise to "eat this, not that" links always seem to be more tenuous when they're closely studied. If you've got the time and interest, Denise Minger's fisking of the China Study is worth reading - and probably got her the contract to write her book.
(lung cancer cells dividing - highly processed image from the BBC)
When Mrs. Graybeard had her bout with breast cancer, one of her coworkers gave us another quote that stuck with me: "what did you do to get cancer?". Too often, people seem to live with the idea that if they just live this one right way, or eat this one super food, or take this one supplement, they'll never get cancer, and consequently, if you do get cancer it's because you did something wrong. Another one of those things I heard that stuck with me was the director of the bone marrow transplant clinic who said, "I have a clinic full of women who were doing everything right" - about that idea.
Maybe this study will remove some of accusatory tone directed at cancer patients. Lord knows they have it tough enough without that.
Speaking of which, Lawyer With A Gun, who has been in my linked blogs for as long as I can remember, reports his wife is in the worst of it right now. Stop by and send prayers, good wishes, or just kind words. I certainly do the same for any of you readers who might be in the same spot.
I've posted before about our experiences with cancer - probably the best summary here. In our talks with oncologists one of them left me with a quote that I'll never forget, "sometimes cells just freak out". I think the study confirms that view.
Research published in Science (the house journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science), showed two thirds of the cancer types analyzed were caused just by chance mutations rather than lifestyle. Naturally, the chattering class is saying this doesn't mean you can just do what you want. Who do you think you are? You're not allowed to live as you want.
Certainly smoking is so strongly linked to lung cancer that when doctors find non-smokers with the disease, they're considered remarkable cases, and the study doesn't say you can ignore that and go light up a few.
Beyond smoking, though, I personally think the links are weaker. Sun exposure is linked with skin cancer, but it's not the strongest link you can imagine. For example, melanoma, the most lethal type of skin cancer is often found on the soles of feet and in other places where most people don't expose themselves to the sun. The British Medical Journal published an article back in 2008 saying sunlight was not a major cause of melanoma. Chances are you've heard that you should get lots of fiber to prevent colon cancer, but that link has been discounted many times, such as this summary link to a 2005 JAMA article. I recall reading an article in student science journal saying the same thing about 20 years before that.
Cross-cultural dietary studies that give rise to "eat this, not that" links always seem to be more tenuous when they're closely studied. If you've got the time and interest, Denise Minger's fisking of the China Study is worth reading - and probably got her the contract to write her book.
(lung cancer cells dividing - highly processed image from the BBC)
When Mrs. Graybeard had her bout with breast cancer, one of her coworkers gave us another quote that stuck with me: "what did you do to get cancer?". Too often, people seem to live with the idea that if they just live this one right way, or eat this one super food, or take this one supplement, they'll never get cancer, and consequently, if you do get cancer it's because you did something wrong. Another one of those things I heard that stuck with me was the director of the bone marrow transplant clinic who said, "I have a clinic full of women who were doing everything right" - about that idea.
Maybe this study will remove some of accusatory tone directed at cancer patients. Lord knows they have it tough enough without that.
Speaking of which, Lawyer With A Gun, who has been in my linked blogs for as long as I can remember, reports his wife is in the worst of it right now. Stop by and send prayers, good wishes, or just kind words. I certainly do the same for any of you readers who might be in the same spot.
Friday, January 2, 2015
An Info Bleg or Two
On Christmas day, I posted about some problems I had getting this computer switched over to the SSD that we'd (in theory) gifted each other. I never posted the follow-up, which was that on Friday, I was able to get it to boot off the SSD, but that always gave me the dual boot option (SSD or HD). That took the Windows7 System Repair Disk option in Windoze Backup/Restore. I was finally able to find some shareware (EasyBCD 2.2) that allowed me to fix that so that it will only boot off the SSD without pausing for the dual boot option and it has booted successfully off the SSD ever since. The story is a little longer and more full of "blood, tears, toil and sweat", as Churchill said, but the bottom line is everything was working fine by Friday night.
So all's swell that ends swell, right?
The other thing we thought we'd do for ourselves is to get a backup system that both of us could use. For the last several years, I've used a Western Digital 1 Terabyte backup but it would only allow one user. The term is "Network Attached Storage", or NAS, as an alternative to one of those cloud-based, pay by the Gigabyte services. Based on a few reviews like this one, I got one of these Western Digital "MyCloud" boxes for the house.
There's another long, bloody story here, but does anyone have experience with these NAS backups? In particular, how long should it take for the first backup? I'm backing up my small SSD (about 60 GB) and my "File Hog" of data, pictures, documents and so on, that's about 140 GB. The backup utility has been running continually since 5:30 PM on 12/31, so almost two complete days, and is only at 86% done. I'm hoping it will finish before I'd like to shut down tonight. I know that with an incremental backup scheme, it should go faster from here on, but my incremental backups with the old one took about half an hour, over USB2. Any guesses on how long it should take, over Ethernet?
And my second info bleg relates to Blogger itself. I moved all my Firefox bookmarks and the associated crap browsers gather over to the old file hog, leaving only the executable on the SSD. Previously it was all one drive. Since then, that tag in the upper right for blogger always wants me to sign in. It says "Create Blog" and "Sign In" instead of having my blogger/Gmail ID there. When I sign in, it already knows I'm signed in, and when I comment on other blogs, it knows I'm signed in. It just never allows me to access the other options on my computer. It works on the iPad, though, so I know it's just this machine.
Anyone ever seen this?
So all's swell that ends swell, right?
The other thing we thought we'd do for ourselves is to get a backup system that both of us could use. For the last several years, I've used a Western Digital 1 Terabyte backup but it would only allow one user. The term is "Network Attached Storage", or NAS, as an alternative to one of those cloud-based, pay by the Gigabyte services. Based on a few reviews like this one, I got one of these Western Digital "MyCloud" boxes for the house.
There's another long, bloody story here, but does anyone have experience with these NAS backups? In particular, how long should it take for the first backup? I'm backing up my small SSD (about 60 GB) and my "File Hog" of data, pictures, documents and so on, that's about 140 GB. The backup utility has been running continually since 5:30 PM on 12/31, so almost two complete days, and is only at 86% done. I'm hoping it will finish before I'd like to shut down tonight. I know that with an incremental backup scheme, it should go faster from here on, but my incremental backups with the old one took about half an hour, over USB2. Any guesses on how long it should take, over Ethernet?
And my second info bleg relates to Blogger itself. I moved all my Firefox bookmarks and the associated crap browsers gather over to the old file hog, leaving only the executable on the SSD. Previously it was all one drive. Since then, that tag in the upper right for blogger always wants me to sign in. It says "Create Blog" and "Sign In" instead of having my blogger/Gmail ID there. When I sign in, it already knows I'm signed in, and when I comment on other blogs, it knows I'm signed in. It just never allows me to access the other options on my computer. It works on the iPad, though, so I know it's just this machine.
Anyone ever seen this?
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Happy New Year
In truth, 2014 was a pretty good year for us. It had to get better with an opening like it had: rolling in from 2013 a month after losing mom to multiple myeloma and a year of pretty regular trips down to her place to help out. Last year, I said, "I've never paid much mind to the "whole new year, whole new future" line
of thought, because a year is just a convenient way to mark time. We
could use Julian Days,
but month/day/year is shorter. I'm going to deliberately delude myself
a little and allow myself to think I'll get a new start when the
calendar turns in a few hours." And 2014 did get better.
2014 was the year we finally did something about a course of action for coming retirement, or at least a semi-retirement switch from full time work. We built my dream shop onto the back of the garage. There's not a time I go out there that I don't think how great it is. We added a Grizzly milling machine to it in October and within the last two weeks, in and around the Christmas rush, we got the lathe in place. I owe y'all a post on that, but it has been a busy couple of weeks. I've barely checked it out in the simplest operations, though, so I don't have much to say at the moment.
While moving into the shop I discovered a problem with my aluminum boat, but all's well there, too. I patched it, put in a battery disconnect switch, and then put it up for sale in the classifieds at work pricing it as "motor and trailer with free boat included". A young software engineer I kinda know showed up at my desk once the ad had been appearing for a couple of weeks and bought it. I made sure he understood about the problem and that he might have to spend some time working on it and he still wanted it. I think we' re both happy at how that turned out. Yeah, I replaced it. I should put up some details on that, too.
BTW, the rod I posted about when I was building, and then when it snapped in half during its first 15 minutes of life, is still in limbo. I complied with MHX's requirements, sending in as much of the rod as I could with all the purchase details. I'm hopeful they'll replace the blank, but I'm still out about $50 in other parts, not to mention spare hours over about 6 weekends to build it. If they don't... I might just go find a good production rod.
We took our trip of a lifetime last summer. Not only a trip of a lifetime, but I think it was a life-changing trip. It certainly changed my perspectives on a lot of things.
We spent Thanksgiving with my brother's extended family and went down this past Monday (12/29), too. We're running short of family these days, so those are special days. I suppose running short of family is just part of being the elders, but I'm sure not used to it. I wonder if we ever do get used to it.
So, yeah, it was a good year for us. Looking at what I think of as highlights of the year looks like a bunch of "conspicuous consumption", but it wasn't all like that (except for maybe the fishing rod). A lot of planning and saving over several years led to the addition and the shop tools. A lot of projects were completed and a few were started. I have much to write about without even thinking of the economic roller coaster we're all on - and that's currently going through a relatively calm period.
And so as we stumble into 2015, remember to drink responsibly and I wish you all a happy, healthy, prosperous, safe and free New Year.
2014 was the year we finally did something about a course of action for coming retirement, or at least a semi-retirement switch from full time work. We built my dream shop onto the back of the garage. There's not a time I go out there that I don't think how great it is. We added a Grizzly milling machine to it in October and within the last two weeks, in and around the Christmas rush, we got the lathe in place. I owe y'all a post on that, but it has been a busy couple of weeks. I've barely checked it out in the simplest operations, though, so I don't have much to say at the moment.
While moving into the shop I discovered a problem with my aluminum boat, but all's well there, too. I patched it, put in a battery disconnect switch, and then put it up for sale in the classifieds at work pricing it as "motor and trailer with free boat included". A young software engineer I kinda know showed up at my desk once the ad had been appearing for a couple of weeks and bought it. I made sure he understood about the problem and that he might have to spend some time working on it and he still wanted it. I think we' re both happy at how that turned out. Yeah, I replaced it. I should put up some details on that, too.
BTW, the rod I posted about when I was building, and then when it snapped in half during its first 15 minutes of life, is still in limbo. I complied with MHX's requirements, sending in as much of the rod as I could with all the purchase details. I'm hopeful they'll replace the blank, but I'm still out about $50 in other parts, not to mention spare hours over about 6 weekends to build it. If they don't... I might just go find a good production rod.
We took our trip of a lifetime last summer. Not only a trip of a lifetime, but I think it was a life-changing trip. It certainly changed my perspectives on a lot of things.
We spent Thanksgiving with my brother's extended family and went down this past Monday (12/29), too. We're running short of family these days, so those are special days. I suppose running short of family is just part of being the elders, but I'm sure not used to it. I wonder if we ever do get used to it.
So, yeah, it was a good year for us. Looking at what I think of as highlights of the year looks like a bunch of "conspicuous consumption", but it wasn't all like that (except for maybe the fishing rod). A lot of planning and saving over several years led to the addition and the shop tools. A lot of projects were completed and a few were started. I have much to write about without even thinking of the economic roller coaster we're all on - and that's currently going through a relatively calm period.
And so as we stumble into 2015, remember to drink responsibly and I wish you all a happy, healthy, prosperous, safe and free New Year.
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
A Few More Trouble Tree Seeds
In the comments to yesterday's post on the coming troubles, most people went down the good cop/bad cop rabbit hole. Yeah, I'm the one who brought up the subject, but that wasn't my emphasis. Liberty's Torch put up a good post on the Cop Conundrum today, covering some of the biggest questions. My point was in the last major paragraph (where conclusions are usually found):
I know there are those, including Francis Porretto at Liberty's Torch, who look at the patterns of black on white crime in the country and say the race war has actually started. (Francis, I don't mean to put words in your mouth; it's just how I read you.) I know many have warned about being perhaps a bit more aware while out in public. There's no way you can stay more than 50 feet from everyone while you're out Christmas shopping or in the crowd watching tonight's possum drop, so since you can't have that element of time, you need to get as much advanced warning as you can. Crank up that situational awareness level.
But, again, that's not the only thing to be aware of and watching. Just as the US left is depicting all of us as "others", so is ISIS in the way they're indoctrinating their followers. There is a possibility that ISIS, who is already in the US, could mount some sort of attack here. Buck Sexton, National Security Editor from the Blaze and sitting in as anchor on Glenn Beck's program, presented a list of the top 10 threats to the US in 2015, as developed by the Council of Foreign Relations. Not that I particularly trust the CFR, but their list is:
There's a balance between situational awareness, which can appear to be paranoia, and having too much paranoia, but I think we're entering a particularly dangerous time in recent history. Our enemies realize the we're under weak leadership and that this is a good time to do whatever they want. Add in the fact that those idiot voters didn't give Obama a congressional majority but elected the Stupid party, and there's additional displeasure at home, too. I'll conclude with something Michael Bane posted, in that entry I referred you to yesterday:
So I ask you: how is this indoctrination of ISIS children different than the indoctrination by Al Sharpton, Saul Alinsky, Frank Marshall Davis, and the others who trained generations of black Americans to believe the police want them dead?In the case of the race-baiters like Sharpton; the communists like Alinsky, and Davis; or the community dis-organizers/destroyers like Obama, Holder, and even as high in the White House as Valerie Jarret herself, we see behavior deliberately aimed at isolating a group as "others" with all the potential for horrific acts that comes with assigning "otherness" (which seems to be a historical precursor to genocides). To these people, the others are the police, but when the argument is that police are racist it adds another element to the story. Sharpton's charge assumes all police are white, or at least that they hate blacks. It's nothing less than trying to start a hot race war in this country.
I know there are those, including Francis Porretto at Liberty's Torch, who look at the patterns of black on white crime in the country and say the race war has actually started. (Francis, I don't mean to put words in your mouth; it's just how I read you.) I know many have warned about being perhaps a bit more aware while out in public. There's no way you can stay more than 50 feet from everyone while you're out Christmas shopping or in the crowd watching tonight's possum drop, so since you can't have that element of time, you need to get as much advanced warning as you can. Crank up that situational awareness level.
But, again, that's not the only thing to be aware of and watching. Just as the US left is depicting all of us as "others", so is ISIS in the way they're indoctrinating their followers. There is a possibility that ISIS, who is already in the US, could mount some sort of attack here. Buck Sexton, National Security Editor from the Blaze and sitting in as anchor on Glenn Beck's program, presented a list of the top 10 threats to the US in 2015, as developed by the Council of Foreign Relations. Not that I particularly trust the CFR, but their list is:
Inspire, the English language e-zine from Al Qaeda has been advocating more lone wolf attacks, including on airliners. Lone wolf attacks, like the hatchet attack on NY city police officers a few weeks ago, the attack on the Canadian parliament, or the Sydney Lindt Chocolate shop, now seem to be what they're calling for. Presumably, this means that they've found they're unable to plan larger operations and can only mount smaller ones.
- The intensification of the conflict in Iraq
- A large-scale attack on the U.S. homeland or ally
- A cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure
- A severe North Korean crisis
- The renewed threat of Israeli military strikes against Iran
- An armed confrontation in the South China Sea
- The escalation of the Syrian civil war
- Rising violence and instability in Afghanistan
- Increased fighting in eastern Ukraine
- Heightened Israeli-Palestinian tensions
There's a balance between situational awareness, which can appear to be paranoia, and having too much paranoia, but I think we're entering a particularly dangerous time in recent history. Our enemies realize the we're under weak leadership and that this is a good time to do whatever they want. Add in the fact that those idiot voters didn't give Obama a congressional majority but elected the Stupid party, and there's additional displeasure at home, too. I'll conclude with something Michael Bane posted, in that entry I referred you to yesterday:
I think many of Obama's most ardent followers thought for sure that by Year 6 we'd be in the Workers' Paradise, with Obamaphones and caviar for everyone...except those of us working to pay for it all, of course. Our role would be to "check our privilege," shut up and keep paying taxes.One of the hostages who escaped from the Lindt Cafe - I've never seen her identified.
And now those most ardent followers, especially the media, for who the phrase useful idiots seems to be tailor-made, are really really pissed off. No Obamaphones! No social justice! The narrative is failing! For the media sycophants, the race hustlers, the hate America Faux revolutionaries, that dacha by the sea is fading away as we speak.
...
In his 1938 text The Anatomy of Revolution (you've read it, right?) Crane Brinton noted that the revolutionary "moment" occurs not at at the lowest ebb of a culture, but rather when rising expectations are thwarted. Progressives rode the rising expectation of "fundamental change" right up until they ran smack into the American exceptionalism. Despite what one might read from the pampered elites at Brandeis University -- "Amerikka needs an intifada...enough is enough" -- the proletariat are not rising up in support of the progressive agenda. Quite the opposite.
With professional "protesters" fueled by a sense of rage over lost opportunities and missing Obamaphones, enabled by a 24-hour news cycle controlled by our blood enemies and given tacit approval by our supposed leaders, we potentially face a level of violence not seen since the 1960s. And that's not even counting the increased threat from those other fascists for the Middle East!
Labels:
commies and other idiots,
Events,
peace of islam,
politics
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Sowing The Seeds of A Crop of Trouble Trees
It's the time of the season for everyone to be cranking out their "best of the old year" and "what's to come in the new year" stories. I don't want to go full tilt in either direction, but I want to pass on my thoughts about a few things that stand out to me, probably over the next day or so.
Of course, one of the big stories of 2014 was the sudden war on the police. Like everyone I regularly read, I'll recognize that there have been too many incidents of what can only be described as police getting away with murder and mayhem that any of the rest of us would be killed for. There certainly are bad cops. On balance, though, I come down with the guys who say that most cops are not bad cops and the ones who are doing wrong should be prosecuted like the rest of us would be.
The fact that there are some bad cops is not an excuse to execute random guys. In my book, there's never an excuse to execute a random person. If a particular person has violated you, how could executing someone in another city who has never seen you or spoken to you ever be rational? (Deviant psychology never made sense to me, not that I've wanted to try to wrap my mind around that corkscrew logic.) Yet we see it happening more often, now, with attacks in North Carolina, El Lay, Tarpon Springs, Florida, and Flagstaff, Arizona.
We all know the Great Sage Barbie once said, "Math is hard", but the shooters need to know that since the majority of cops are good, the percentages say they're probably shooting good guys and shifting the balance of the forces to bad cops. They are definitely shifting police to a more offensive standing and being more likely to shoot.
On the other hand, this to be expected. For at least one complete generation, if not two, every child who listens to the race hustlers has been taught that the cops are out to destroy them. Like Comrade de Blasio himself. Friday, Michael Bane wrote an excellent post "A Harsh Reality", and put it this way:
Step back for a second. Several observers, like Bayou Renaissance Man for one, have expressed concern about ISIS lately. For one thing, there are credible reports that ISIS is in the US already, with it being widely reported that the terror organization is/was planning to blow up the Memphis/Arkansas bridge over the Mississippi. Meanwhile, the US is hampered by a leadership that simply doesn't understand ISIS, according Major General Michael Nagata, special forces commander in the Middle East. In my mind they don't just "See No Islam" as said in that article, they have no desire to. They believe that if they just talk with ISIS, the group will abandon their lifelong held views and just love us - possibly the most vain, hubristic thing you'll ever hear.
ISIS was also called out recently for training small children, 10 and under, including training them to decapitate blond, blue-eyed dolls. The idea, of course, is to desensitize them to the brutality; to make children think beheading is a Holy thing, and not an act of barbarism. I'm sure you'll all remember the stories of the Australian jihadi's son holding up a severed had with pride and happiness. (Pictures here but content warning for the squeamish)
So I ask you: how is this indoctrination of ISIS children different than the indoctrination by Al Sharpton, Saul Alinsky, Frank Marshall Davis, and the others who trained generations of black Americans to believe the police want them dead?
Michael Ramirez. It took me a few seconds to realize that was a hand controlling the puppet and not bizarre pants.
Of course, one of the big stories of 2014 was the sudden war on the police. Like everyone I regularly read, I'll recognize that there have been too many incidents of what can only be described as police getting away with murder and mayhem that any of the rest of us would be killed for. There certainly are bad cops. On balance, though, I come down with the guys who say that most cops are not bad cops and the ones who are doing wrong should be prosecuted like the rest of us would be.
The fact that there are some bad cops is not an excuse to execute random guys. In my book, there's never an excuse to execute a random person. If a particular person has violated you, how could executing someone in another city who has never seen you or spoken to you ever be rational? (Deviant psychology never made sense to me, not that I've wanted to try to wrap my mind around that corkscrew logic.) Yet we see it happening more often, now, with attacks in North Carolina, El Lay, Tarpon Springs, Florida, and Flagstaff, Arizona.
We all know the Great Sage Barbie once said, "Math is hard", but the shooters need to know that since the majority of cops are good, the percentages say they're probably shooting good guys and shifting the balance of the forces to bad cops. They are definitely shifting police to a more offensive standing and being more likely to shoot.
On the other hand, this to be expected. For at least one complete generation, if not two, every child who listens to the race hustlers has been taught that the cops are out to destroy them. Like Comrade de Blasio himself. Friday, Michael Bane wrote an excellent post "A Harsh Reality", and put it this way:
A couple of days ago before Christmas I wrote a really searing blog post on the complicity of our so-called "leaders" on the LEO assassinations in New York. I decided, upon reflection, not to post it. I thought I needed to make some different points...yes, Barry and Eric and Al and Bill are complicit in the delegitimizing of the police that led directly to the deaths. The concept of delegitimizing the agencies of representative government by the creation of chaos is one of the standard — and most reliable — tools of the leftist/fascist revolutionary.You should go RTWT - a couple of pages, but good. Michael, like me and many other gun bloggers, feel that this is going to get worse before it gets better. As the Investor's Business Daily puts it, the "The Left's War on Cops Has Begun".
The idea is to "prove" that the government no longer has control of its own streets or that, in fact, the legitimate authorities are actually agents of oppression (the war on cops); to "prove" that the legal structures of the representative government no longer work (the war on the courts and the grand jury system); to "prove" that the legal protections of the old system are insufficient responses to the "new" social environment (the war on due process waged in many arenas, including on college campuses on the so-called "rape culture"); to "prove" that the leftist/fascist concept of "social justice" cannot be met by the existing representative government and therefore demands a new system.
There's little doubt where the blame lies: with the race-baiters and communist organizing groups who have taken their cues from the wink-and-nod encouragement from political leaders at the top.It doesn't take much reading to find that ANSWER and other communist groups are pushing these demonstrations.
Leaders from President Obama to de Blasio have embraced the radical "narrative" that all police are "Bull Connor"-style predators on black people, along with the de facto message that the police do not have the right to defend themselves in a confrontation.
Step back for a second. Several observers, like Bayou Renaissance Man for one, have expressed concern about ISIS lately. For one thing, there are credible reports that ISIS is in the US already, with it being widely reported that the terror organization is/was planning to blow up the Memphis/Arkansas bridge over the Mississippi. Meanwhile, the US is hampered by a leadership that simply doesn't understand ISIS, according Major General Michael Nagata, special forces commander in the Middle East. In my mind they don't just "See No Islam" as said in that article, they have no desire to. They believe that if they just talk with ISIS, the group will abandon their lifelong held views and just love us - possibly the most vain, hubristic thing you'll ever hear.
ISIS was also called out recently for training small children, 10 and under, including training them to decapitate blond, blue-eyed dolls. The idea, of course, is to desensitize them to the brutality; to make children think beheading is a Holy thing, and not an act of barbarism. I'm sure you'll all remember the stories of the Australian jihadi's son holding up a severed had with pride and happiness. (Pictures here but content warning for the squeamish)
So I ask you: how is this indoctrination of ISIS children different than the indoctrination by Al Sharpton, Saul Alinsky, Frank Marshall Davis, and the others who trained generations of black Americans to believe the police want them dead?
Michael Ramirez. It took me a few seconds to realize that was a hand controlling the puppet and not bizarre pants.
Labels:
commies and other idiots,
Events,
peace of islam,
police
Sunday, December 28, 2014
A Little Lighter Fare
I noticed Rev. Paul posted on the new Gibson guitar he got for Christmas; it's one of the Les Paul models. For you non-guitarists, "Gibson Les Paul" is kinda like "General Motors Chevrolet"; more like a brand than a specific model. There are many models in the Les Paul line every year, and the style is even produced by other brands, where they're usually called LP style. For example (standard disclaimers: no relation, just to show what I'm referring to, this instrument will probably give you scabies... etc.). Counterfeit Chinese copies have become so common that they even have their own name: Chibson. If you're bored, try entering Chibson in your favorite search engine.
And, yeah, I have one. There's a picture on the right column farther down the page.
Anyway, the lovely Mrs. Graybeard added a new guitar to my collection this Christmas. Theoretically, I wasn't supposed to know about it, but since we talked about guitars and alternate instruments a lot, it wasn't that big a secret. The instrument is a Dean Spider Resonator acoustic guitar, and the only Dean guitar I've ever played.
The finish is quilted maple, and I really love good quilted maple on a guitar. The back and sides are also quilted maple, and it's a really beautiful instrument that is well-built. Intonation is perfect out of the box (which is good considering I can't figure out how I'd adjust it).
Spider resonator is the style of resonator, that large chrome cover with cutouts in it is covering the spider resonator, details at that Wikipedia page. I've always heard this type of guitar called a Dobro, but that name is copyrighted, like calling any copier a Xerox or any adhesive bandage a Band-Aid. Historically, the name Dobro was originated by the inventors of the resonator after they left National Guitars, so it was always their trademark. The latest owner of Dobro guitars is none other than Gibson, as parent company of Epiphone! Which means this post comes full circle. (Side note: anybody remember Paul Simon's "Graceland"? - "The Mississippi Delta is shining like a National guitar"? Picture the reflection off that chrome guitar.)
There's a style of resonator that's intended to be held horizontally on your lap or by its strap if you're standing; this Dean is intended to be held like a conventional acoustic guitar. Resonator guitars are often played with a glass slide on one finger, and the tone you get is unique - yet recognizable if you listen to any blues or blues inspired music. Here's where I inject my "too white and nerdy". My allergist has me use a nasal spray called Dymista which comes in a brown glass bottle. A few seconds on a tile saw takes off the top and bottom of the bottle leaving a brown glass tube, not unlike a beer bottle neck (except thinner glass). I'll use the allergy spray bottle as my glass slide. I need to write something like "The Bad Nose Blues".
If you've never heard slide guitar in blues before, and even if you have, listen to this piece, which is more of rip-roaring, country-rock virtuoso piece by Sue Foley and Peter Karp. Sue Foley is on the pink paisley Telecaster and Peter Karp is on the National resonator guitar with the glass slide on his pinky.
EDIT 2051 EST: I said Sue Foley was playing at "plaid pink Telecaster". That's paisley. Hey, they're both words that start with "p". My typing went on autopilot. (Yeah, I know, plaid to the bone).
And, yeah, I have one. There's a picture on the right column farther down the page.
Anyway, the lovely Mrs. Graybeard added a new guitar to my collection this Christmas. Theoretically, I wasn't supposed to know about it, but since we talked about guitars and alternate instruments a lot, it wasn't that big a secret. The instrument is a Dean Spider Resonator acoustic guitar, and the only Dean guitar I've ever played.
The finish is quilted maple, and I really love good quilted maple on a guitar. The back and sides are also quilted maple, and it's a really beautiful instrument that is well-built. Intonation is perfect out of the box (which is good considering I can't figure out how I'd adjust it).
Spider resonator is the style of resonator, that large chrome cover with cutouts in it is covering the spider resonator, details at that Wikipedia page. I've always heard this type of guitar called a Dobro, but that name is copyrighted, like calling any copier a Xerox or any adhesive bandage a Band-Aid. Historically, the name Dobro was originated by the inventors of the resonator after they left National Guitars, so it was always their trademark. The latest owner of Dobro guitars is none other than Gibson, as parent company of Epiphone! Which means this post comes full circle. (Side note: anybody remember Paul Simon's "Graceland"? - "The Mississippi Delta is shining like a National guitar"? Picture the reflection off that chrome guitar.)
There's a style of resonator that's intended to be held horizontally on your lap or by its strap if you're standing; this Dean is intended to be held like a conventional acoustic guitar. Resonator guitars are often played with a glass slide on one finger, and the tone you get is unique - yet recognizable if you listen to any blues or blues inspired music. Here's where I inject my "too white and nerdy". My allergist has me use a nasal spray called Dymista which comes in a brown glass bottle. A few seconds on a tile saw takes off the top and bottom of the bottle leaving a brown glass tube, not unlike a beer bottle neck (except thinner glass). I'll use the allergy spray bottle as my glass slide. I need to write something like "The Bad Nose Blues".
If you've never heard slide guitar in blues before, and even if you have, listen to this piece, which is more of rip-roaring, country-rock virtuoso piece by Sue Foley and Peter Karp. Sue Foley is on the pink paisley Telecaster and Peter Karp is on the National resonator guitar with the glass slide on his pinky.
EDIT 2051 EST: I said Sue Foley was playing at "plaid pink Telecaster". That's paisley. Hey, they're both words that start with "p". My typing went on autopilot. (Yeah, I know, plaid to the bone).
Saturday, December 27, 2014
Count Me Skeptical on the North Korean Hacker Story
Not to stomp into Borepatch's security territory too much, but I've had a hard time believing the story that North Korean hackers broke into Sony and stole terabytes worth of data. The complete set of computers in the whole country is something like four working Commodore 64s and while they certainly can (and do) send students with the aptitude to China to work in cyber attacks, it just seems hard to imagine they could have much of a base of computer savvy people in the country. It requires better nourishment during pregnancy and child growth to develop working brains than a country that's forced to eat grass and sand can provide.
Then I find an article in Fast Company that real experts are rather skeptical of the story, too. Marc Rogers, for one, puts together a pretty good case against it being the North Koreans.
Chang believes that North Korean cyber attacks would have had to originate in China. China is much better equipped for that sort of attack; think massive cube farms of hackers at work all day long. Some of them could have been from North Korea. At the absolute least, China would have known about the Sony attack, though.
Catherine Herridge, the Chief Intelligence Correspondent at Fox News, reports that sources in the US fed.gov say there's evidence that points to China, as well as Russia and Iran.
(source)
Then I find an article in Fast Company that real experts are rather skeptical of the story, too. Marc Rogers, for one, puts together a pretty good case against it being the North Koreans.
So in conclusion, there is NOTHING here that directly implicates the North Koreans. In fact, what we have is one single set of evidence that has been stretched out into 3 separate sections, each section being cited as evidence that the other section is clear proof of North Korean involvement. As soon as you discredit one of these pieces of evidence, the whole house of cards will come tumbling down.Gordon Chang is a lawyer/analyst/pundit who specializes in watching China and developments in China and North Korea. He's probably excessively pessimistic about China, his book on the coming collapse of China is going on 14 years old, but he's still one of the more knowledgeable people in the pundit class. Chang's view is that if NK did it at all they certainly didn't do it alone. China and North Korea have a symbiotic relationship; China economically exploits the reclusive state for cheap labor, and resources while the North Koreans get most of their food from China and their only air travel is through and over China. North Koreans attempt to escape north into China, the border is said to be easier to cross than the border into South Korea, and China plays a loose game of returning some but not others. It seems natural that any North Koreans with the right skills (or potential) would get sucked north into China.
Chang believes that North Korean cyber attacks would have had to originate in China. China is much better equipped for that sort of attack; think massive cube farms of hackers at work all day long. Some of them could have been from North Korea. At the absolute least, China would have known about the Sony attack, though.
Catherine Herridge, the Chief Intelligence Correspondent at Fox News, reports that sources in the US fed.gov say there's evidence that points to China, as well as Russia and Iran.
The U.S. investigation into the recent hacking attack at Sony Pictures Entertainment has turned up evidence that does not point to North Korea as the "sole entity" in the case, but rather, raises the possibility that Iran, China or Russia may have been involved, an intelligence source told Fox News on Thursday.The idea of the Sony hack being an inside job from a disgruntled employee or something like that seems likely to me. There are just too many things about it that taken together make it unlikely that it was the North Koreans. At least in my book. Now, if it was the world's greatest publicity scheme to get millions of Americans who wouldn't ordinarily go see (what seems to be) a mediocre comedy to change their plans and go see it in some sort of patriotic/1st amendment fervor, that would be a funnier story than Seth Rogan and James Franco could come up with.
....
The source pointed to the sophistication of malware “modules or packets” that destroyed the Sony systems -- on a level that has not been seen from North Korea in the past -- but has been seen from Iran, China and Russia.
There is no evidence of a forced entry into the Sony systems, pointing to an insider threat or stolen credentials. And the first emails sent to Sony, described as blackmail or extortion, included demands unrelated to the movie.
(source)
Thursday, December 25, 2014
Stupid Computers
This computer is a pretty mid-range box, not a graphics or engineering workstation at all, but not a bare bones entry box either. It's a 2011 Dell Inspiron 560, going on three years old. It has a 1 Terabyte drive, out of which I'm only using about 250 Gigs. Considering how much of my day I spend here, I thought I'd try to increase the speed and looked into my options for a faster machine - without plunking down the price equivalent of a full battle rifle.
As Borepatch was pointing out recently, Moore's Law seems to have ended in the last couple of years. This means the amount of processing horsepower has stopped doubling every semiconductor generation (about two years), and the current processors aren't much better than when my Dell was made. His source also pointed out processor speed hasn't really advanced in about a decade, either. Getting clock speed above the mid-3 GHz range is going to involve solving some tough problems that relate to handling microwave signals (make no mistake: 3 GHz is microwave!), and I wouldn't be too surprised if speeds don't go up appreciably for another 10 years.
There have been improvements in computers; the two big trends have been fattening the internal pipes: bringing everything in the box up in speed, and improving power consumption. My desktop at work is marginally faster than my home box, but most notable to me is the speed of loading programs and booting windows. The reason for the better speed is that there's a fatter pipe between the disk drive and the rest of it. There's a Solid State Drive in it, and I decided to go looking down that road. Solid state drives are the same technology as in USB thumb drives; electrically erasable programmable read-only memory, or EEPROM. Electrically erasable and rewritable while being called read-only memory may sound like an oxymoron, but it's a technology that can keep data intact without power applied, unlike the dynamic random access memory or DRAM from which your computer executes its programs. EEPROM is slower than DRAM, but still many times faster than mechanical hard drives.
Figuring that I really wasn't using that much memory, I bought a 128 Gig SSD. The day has been rather a disappointment, as far as the computer goes. I ran the Samsung migration utility and it seems little more than just copying everything to the new SSD. It didn't change any references whatsoever, so, for example, any program that had a desktop icon link to a program on the C: drive still refers to the C: drive even though that program in on the SSD and the computer thinks the SSD is a higher letter. Everything, including Windoze, still runs from my C: drive, making the SSD a high-priced, very small capacity, additional drive. I can't get my BIOS to recognize the old hard drive and the new solid state drive both as options to boot from, and when I do convince it to try to boot from the SSD, it can't; the migration utility must have left important stuff out.
The battle will resume tomorrow. If you're old enough to use a computer, you've probably seen this cartoon:
(as an aside, I never thought I'd link to a blog about "all things beauty: makeup, hair, fashion, and more!", but she's the source of this cartoon!)
As Borepatch was pointing out recently, Moore's Law seems to have ended in the last couple of years. This means the amount of processing horsepower has stopped doubling every semiconductor generation (about two years), and the current processors aren't much better than when my Dell was made. His source also pointed out processor speed hasn't really advanced in about a decade, either. Getting clock speed above the mid-3 GHz range is going to involve solving some tough problems that relate to handling microwave signals (make no mistake: 3 GHz is microwave!), and I wouldn't be too surprised if speeds don't go up appreciably for another 10 years.
There have been improvements in computers; the two big trends have been fattening the internal pipes: bringing everything in the box up in speed, and improving power consumption. My desktop at work is marginally faster than my home box, but most notable to me is the speed of loading programs and booting windows. The reason for the better speed is that there's a fatter pipe between the disk drive and the rest of it. There's a Solid State Drive in it, and I decided to go looking down that road. Solid state drives are the same technology as in USB thumb drives; electrically erasable programmable read-only memory, or EEPROM. Electrically erasable and rewritable while being called read-only memory may sound like an oxymoron, but it's a technology that can keep data intact without power applied, unlike the dynamic random access memory or DRAM from which your computer executes its programs. EEPROM is slower than DRAM, but still many times faster than mechanical hard drives.
Figuring that I really wasn't using that much memory, I bought a 128 Gig SSD. The day has been rather a disappointment, as far as the computer goes. I ran the Samsung migration utility and it seems little more than just copying everything to the new SSD. It didn't change any references whatsoever, so, for example, any program that had a desktop icon link to a program on the C: drive still refers to the C: drive even though that program in on the SSD and the computer thinks the SSD is a higher letter. Everything, including Windoze, still runs from my C: drive, making the SSD a high-priced, very small capacity, additional drive. I can't get my BIOS to recognize the old hard drive and the new solid state drive both as options to boot from, and when I do convince it to try to boot from the SSD, it can't; the migration utility must have left important stuff out.
The battle will resume tomorrow. If you're old enough to use a computer, you've probably seen this cartoon:
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
Merry Christmas
It's sort of annual tradition on my part to put up this post, or at least the essence of it, since I revise it regularly.
On this night 46 years ago, Christmas eve of 1968, Apollo 8 was on the world's first mission to the moon. Like sailors sailing out of sight of land for the first time, man was leaving the safety of shore for the first time. We were becoming a space-faring population. Here on the ground, 1968 had been a tumultuous year but we were united in watching the Apollo 8 mission in a way few things have united Americans.
I'll never forget that message they sent down, that Christmas eve. Especially after roughly 1:00 into this video.
Churches, like all groups, have personalities, and in the one I attend, it would be remarkable to toss a wadded up paper ball and not hit an engineer, nurse, doctor, or a tech professional. It's not news to this bunch that Jesus was probably born in the spring or fall rather than in the dead of winter, or that the December 25th date comes from adapting to the Roman Saturnalia or other pagan holidays; nor would they be shocked if you told them Christmas has more secular than holy traditions associated with it and many things that are totally engrained in the holiday traditions started out as advertising gimmicks. There was no little drummer boy when the events we portray as the nativity happened - and the scene we call the nativity is a conglomeration of bits and pieces from multiple Gospels, and certainly did not happen within the first couple of days of Jesus' life.
A friend sent me this contribution to thought on the question of the exact date.
"And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more." -- Dr. Seuss
Hold close the ones you love. If we're very lucky, this will be the worst Christmas of our lives; everything in life gets better year by year for the rest of our lives. And if things get worse, we'll remember this as the "good old days". Either way, hold tight. And do it "before you dot another 'i' or cross another 't', Bob Cratchit!"
It's one my of my blessings that a group of really great folks stop by here to share my blather - Google says about a thousand of you every day, which blows my mind. Thanks.
So however you mark this day, enjoy it well. Spend time with family or friends or both. Remember the good service members deployed far from home. If you're Military, LEO, or fire; EMT, Nurse or MD, and are one who must work while the rest of us rest, thank you.
On this night 46 years ago, Christmas eve of 1968, Apollo 8 was on the world's first mission to the moon. Like sailors sailing out of sight of land for the first time, man was leaving the safety of shore for the first time. We were becoming a space-faring population. Here on the ground, 1968 had been a tumultuous year but we were united in watching the Apollo 8 mission in a way few things have united Americans.
I'll never forget that message they sent down, that Christmas eve. Especially after roughly 1:00 into this video.
Churches, like all groups, have personalities, and in the one I attend, it would be remarkable to toss a wadded up paper ball and not hit an engineer, nurse, doctor, or a tech professional. It's not news to this bunch that Jesus was probably born in the spring or fall rather than in the dead of winter, or that the December 25th date comes from adapting to the Roman Saturnalia or other pagan holidays; nor would they be shocked if you told them Christmas has more secular than holy traditions associated with it and many things that are totally engrained in the holiday traditions started out as advertising gimmicks. There was no little drummer boy when the events we portray as the nativity happened - and the scene we call the nativity is a conglomeration of bits and pieces from multiple Gospels, and certainly did not happen within the first couple of days of Jesus' life.
A friend sent me this contribution to thought on the question of the exact date.
The truth is we simply don’t know the exact date of our Savior’s birth. In fact, we don’t even know for sure the year in which He was born. Scholars believe it was somewhere between 6 B.C. and 4 B.C. One thing is clear: if God felt it was important for us to know the exact date of the Savior’s birth, He certainly would have told us in His Word. The Gospel of Luke gives very specific details about the event, even down to what the baby was wearing – “swaddling clothes”—and where he slept—“in a manger” (Luke 2:12). These details are important because they speak of His nature and character, meek and lowly. But the exact date of His birth has no significance whatsoever, which may be why God chose not to mention it.I've heard another explanation for why December 25th was chosen. It's close to the solstice, the longest night of the year - which made it the darkest night of the year in those days. Jesus was the light of the world, and the symbolism of bringing light when things are at their darkest fits perfectly with the story. Yes, it has become commercialized; shopping, food and football. I love it anyway. Thank the masters of Madison Avenue - propagandists, really - who have learned how to push our buttons so well; to get us to buy things.
"And the Grinch, with his Grinch-feet ice cold in the snow, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without ribbons. It came without tags. It came without packages, boxes or bags. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Grinch thought of something he hadn't before. What if Christmas, he thought, doesn't come from a store. What if Christmas, perhaps, means a little bit more." -- Dr. Seuss
Hold close the ones you love. If we're very lucky, this will be the worst Christmas of our lives; everything in life gets better year by year for the rest of our lives. And if things get worse, we'll remember this as the "good old days". Either way, hold tight. And do it "before you dot another 'i' or cross another 't', Bob Cratchit!"
It's one my of my blessings that a group of really great folks stop by here to share my blather - Google says about a thousand of you every day, which blows my mind. Thanks.
So however you mark this day, enjoy it well. Spend time with family or friends or both. Remember the good service members deployed far from home. If you're Military, LEO, or fire; EMT, Nurse or MD, and are one who must work while the rest of us rest, thank you.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
More Climate Change "Phraud"?
Anthony Watts at Watts Up With That does it again, with an expose' on one of the newest climate alarmism buzz-phrases, "Ocean acidification". Ocean acidification will make sense to someone with high school science background. Remember that carbon dioxide mixed with water forms carbonic acid? (also known as club soda, seltzer water, unflavored soda and other colloquialisms) So if there's more CO2 in the air, and it mixes with the ocean, then the ocean should become more acidic. It's so obvious that the typical thermaggedon believer will just believe it's happening without questioning. Oh noes!! The ocean is turning acid, we're all going to die!!!
Sure enough, it has started showing up in congressional dog-and-pony shows. Chief alarmist appears to be a Dr. Richard A. Feely, who is a senior scientist with the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)—which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Feely’s climate-crisis views are widely used to support the narrative.
Wallace, the honest Ph.D. student, has the great quote to conclude this little story of NOAA fraud with:
Sure enough, it has started showing up in congressional dog-and-pony shows. Chief alarmist appears to be a Dr. Richard A. Feely, who is a senior scientist with the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)—which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Feely’s climate-crisis views are widely used to support the narrative.
Feely’s four-page report: Carbon Dioxide and Our Ocean Legacy, offered on the NOAA website, contains a similar chart. This chart, titled “Historical & Projected pH & Dissolved Co2,” begins at 1850. Feely testified before Congress in 2010—using the same data that shows a decline in seawater pH (making it more acidic) that appears to coincide with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.There's only one problem. An honest Ph. D. student started to wonder what's going on. Ironically enough, the honest student is named Mike Wallace, no relation.
Mike Wallace is a hydrologist with nearly 30 years’ experience, who is now working on his Ph.D. in nanogeosciences at the University of New Mexico. In the course of his studies, he uncovered a startling data omission that he told me: “eclipses even the so-called climategate event.” Feely’s work is based on computer models that don’t line up with real-world data—which Feely acknowledged in email communications with Wallace (which I have read). And, as Wallace determined, there is real world data. Feely, and his coauthor Dr. Christopher L. Sabine, PMEL Director, omitted 80 years of data, which incorporate more than 2 million records of ocean pH levels.As is virtually always the case, when the data isn't cherry picked by a corrupt scientist (my words, not Wallace's or Watts') the problem goes away. Freely seemingly simply threw out data points that didn't make his graph the way he wanted it. The pink descending line (lowering pH - or more acidic) is Feely's, the blue line is the true series; the ocean is becoming less acidic.
Feely’s chart, first mentioned, begins in 1988—which is surprising as instrumental ocean pH data has been measured for more than 100 years since the invention of the glass electrode pH (GEPH) meter. As a hydrologist, Wallace was aware of GEPH’s history and found it odd that the Feely/Sabine work omitted it. He went to the source. The NOAA paper with the chart beginning in 1850 lists Dave Bard, with Pew Charitable Trust, as the contact. [Emphasis added - SiG]
Wallace, the honest Ph.D. student, has the great quote to conclude this little story of NOAA fraud with:
“In whose professional world,” Wallace asks, “is it acceptable to omit the majority of the data and also to not disclose the omission to any other soul or Congressional body?” [emphasis in original - SiG]A great quote, one which we unfortunately all can answer, but here at Graybeard labs we've found exclusive artist's renderings of the peer review process used throughout climate science:
Labels:
enviro-nuts and flakes,
epic corruption,
Sciencey
Monday, December 22, 2014
Happy Winter Solstice
Yesterday was the Winter Solstice; the day the sun stops and stands still in its voyage south and then starts north again. From this point, every sunrise will be a little farther north until June's summer solstice.
Rev. Paul and those in colder climes may feel happy that going through the shortest day of the year means the days will start getting longer. It will be imperceptible at first, gathering speed as the calendar approaches spring.
Yesterday's APOD, the Astronomy Picture of the Day, shows the southern view looking down the Tyrrhenian Sea coast from Santa Severa toward Fiumicino, Italy, and was taken by Danilo Pivato . It's a composite of 43 precisely timed exposures, taken on the solstice in 2005.
Cool shot, but it's only one day. Wouldn't it be neat to see the sun's wandering over the course of a year? Of course it has been done. It takes a bit more planning, but you just need to take a photograph at the exact same time regularly throughout the year and be sure before you start that the image will fit on the film or sensor. Once a week is good, round number and you pretty much can't make the exposures too short. Take the photograph when the sun is high enough above the horizon to record on the winter solstice, and leave the camera pointed at the same place for a year. Add one longer exposure picture when the sky has a pretty look you like and maybe you can get a picture as pretty as this one. The photograph shows a curve called an analemma. The winter solstice sun is the bottom middle of the elongated figure 8; the summer solstice at the upper, narrower end.
This one was taken by István Mátis from a window in his apartment in Romania (much larger version is here). He writes,
Rev. Paul and those in colder climes may feel happy that going through the shortest day of the year means the days will start getting longer. It will be imperceptible at first, gathering speed as the calendar approaches spring.
Yesterday's APOD, the Astronomy Picture of the Day, shows the southern view looking down the Tyrrhenian Sea coast from Santa Severa toward Fiumicino, Italy, and was taken by Danilo Pivato . It's a composite of 43 precisely timed exposures, taken on the solstice in 2005.
Cool shot, but it's only one day. Wouldn't it be neat to see the sun's wandering over the course of a year? Of course it has been done. It takes a bit more planning, but you just need to take a photograph at the exact same time regularly throughout the year and be sure before you start that the image will fit on the film or sensor. Once a week is good, round number and you pretty much can't make the exposures too short. Take the photograph when the sun is high enough above the horizon to record on the winter solstice, and leave the camera pointed at the same place for a year. Add one longer exposure picture when the sky has a pretty look you like and maybe you can get a picture as pretty as this one. The photograph shows a curve called an analemma. The winter solstice sun is the bottom middle of the elongated figure 8; the summer solstice at the upper, narrower end.
This one was taken by István Mátis from a window in his apartment in Romania (much larger version is here). He writes,
The discs of the Sun are taken between 11/6/2012 and 1/19/2014 at 7:00 UT, which is 9'o clock in the morning local time during winter and 10'o clock during daylight saving time. The background is made on 1/14/2014 at 7:55 local time, from the original location of the analemma.More details here. My guess is that the gaps in the pattern were caused by cloudy days.
Sunday, December 21, 2014
My Favorite Christmas Song
Regulars here know that I'm somewhat of a blues fan. I've introduced the outrageously talented Joanne Shaw Taylor, country blues master (and songwriting partner to Eric Clapton) JJ Cale, and even mentioned my own meager study of the art.
So it might not come as a surprise that my favorite Christmas song is the bluesy, melancholy "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas". The song dates from 1944, written by Hugh Martin and Ralph Blaine for Judy Garland's 1944 movie, Meet Me in St. Louis. The sad tone is understandable; Christmas of 1944 was three years into World War II, and many people had undergone the hardship of losing family members. The war was wearing on the national psyche; the death toll was the highest seen since the Civil War. They were dark days.
In a 1989 NPR program, the authors spoke of having written the first drafts of the song and Judy Garland objected to the lyrics, saying they were too sad. According to Hugh Martin's book:
You'll note that at the crescendo of the song, the line isn't "hang a shining star upon the highest bough", it's the more morose "until then, we'll have to muddle through somehow". Much more fitting to a sadder song written during WWII. That change (which seems to be the last) was prompted by Frank Sinatra in 1957. According to Entertainment Weekly,
So it might not come as a surprise that my favorite Christmas song is the bluesy, melancholy "Have Yourself A Merry Little Christmas". The song dates from 1944, written by Hugh Martin and Ralph Blaine for Judy Garland's 1944 movie, Meet Me in St. Louis. The sad tone is understandable; Christmas of 1944 was three years into World War II, and many people had undergone the hardship of losing family members. The war was wearing on the national psyche; the death toll was the highest seen since the Civil War. They were dark days.
In a 1989 NPR program, the authors spoke of having written the first drafts of the song and Judy Garland objected to the lyrics, saying they were too sad. According to Hugh Martin's book:
Some of the original lyrics ... were rejected before filming began. They were: "Have yourself a merry little Christmas / It may be your last/ Next year we may all be living in the past / Have yourself a merry little Christmas / Pop that champagne cork / Next year we may all be living in New York."Martin revised the lyrics getting approvals from Judy and the rest of the production staff. Eventually, Judy Garland made this recording:
You'll note that at the crescendo of the song, the line isn't "hang a shining star upon the highest bough", it's the more morose "until then, we'll have to muddle through somehow". Much more fitting to a sadder song written during WWII. That change (which seems to be the last) was prompted by Frank Sinatra in 1957. According to Entertainment Weekly,
Among the never-recorded couplets — which [Martin] he now describes as ''hysterically lugubrious'' — were lines like: ''Have yourself a merry little Christmas/It may be your last.... Faithful friends who were dear to us/Will be near to us no more.''That request led to the line we hear most often. "Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas" has become one of the most popular songs year after year. EW says it's second only to "The Christmas Song" (which most people think is called "Chestnuts Roasting on an Open Fire). It has been covered by a gamut of artists from Sinatra to Connie Stephens, to James Taylor to '80s metal band Twisted Sister". I think I'll go see if I can work up a jazz tone and play it a bit right now.
...
Then, in 1957, Frank Sinatra — who'd already cut a lovely version with the movie's bittersweet lyrics in 1947 — came to Martin with a request for yet another pick-me-up. ''He called to ask if I would rewrite the 'muddle through somehow' line,'' says the songwriter. ''He said, 'The name of my album is A Jolly Christmas. Do you think you could jolly up that line for me?'''
Saturday, December 20, 2014
Russia In Full Tilt Economic Collapse? Not Quite
They may not be in full economic collapse just yet, but you have to look closely to tell the difference. In the last six months, the Ruble has lost almost 50% of its purchasing power compared to our dollar. The fall in the Ruble has led to Russians going on a spending spree, getting rid of Rubles and buying hard goods; basically anything they think they might need soon or anything that might be a store of value.
Russia has been through currency collapse before, with the most recent being 1998, and market watchers are saying this crisis is reminiscent of that collapse. Consequently, many Russians alive today remember the previous crashes and know what to do. It's one reason people are going on buying sprees; if the currency is collapsing, money you're holding buys less every day. You may as well buy as much food and other survival needs as soon as you can. Anything you think you might need is going to cost more next week, so get it while you can. Something we read about in Weimar Germany is that people would take their pay in cash and spend it as soon as they could, in order to get the most out of their pay that they could.
The next big warning sign would either be a run on the banks, or a bank "holiday" (closure). While I've heard rumors of runs on the banks in Russia, so far they appear to be just rumors or they're just not widespread enough to make news.
Russian protesters on 12/12 (source). The article translates the signs as "Banks make us beggars", and "How to live. Mortgages in dollars". The first one, at least, is exactly wrong - and you hear similar thoughts here in the USA. The banks, and especially the central banks, would have zero power to mess with the currency and make people beggars if the governments didn't allow it. It's the governments that are making us beggars, not the banks. If governments didn't hand control of the nations' economies to central bankers they could do nothing of the sort. Of course, then the politicians couldn't run up trillion dollar annual deficits, multi-trillion dollar debts and do all the vote buying they do.
On his way home from work tonight, with the near-collapse of Russia’s currency on his mind, Maxim Legonkikh made something of an impulse buy.In response, the Bank of Russia (their equivalent of our Federal Reserve Bank) has raised interest rates to 17% in an attempt to halt the collapse, but that doesn't seem to be stopping the slide in the Ruble, which fell to a 16 year low. On Tuesday, Apple confirmed they stopped sales into Russia; presumably out of concern they'd never get proper payment.
He pulled into the Porsche dealership and bought himself a brand new sports car. In cash.
“It’s an incredible deal,” he explained. “I’m only here because I need to find a safe place for my money.”
Russia has been through currency collapse before, with the most recent being 1998, and market watchers are saying this crisis is reminiscent of that collapse. Consequently, many Russians alive today remember the previous crashes and know what to do. It's one reason people are going on buying sprees; if the currency is collapsing, money you're holding buys less every day. You may as well buy as much food and other survival needs as soon as you can. Anything you think you might need is going to cost more next week, so get it while you can. Something we read about in Weimar Germany is that people would take their pay in cash and spend it as soon as they could, in order to get the most out of their pay that they could.
The next big warning sign would either be a run on the banks, or a bank "holiday" (closure). While I've heard rumors of runs on the banks in Russia, so far they appear to be just rumors or they're just not widespread enough to make news.
Banks in Moscow, including Citigroup Inc. (C), ZAO Raiffeisen and Khanty-Mansiysk Otkritie Bank, yesterday reported a surge in demand for foreign currency as the ruble continued to slide after a plunge in oil prices. The currency has lost almost half its value against the dollar this year, a decline yesterday’s interest-rate increase initially failed to halt.The higher interest rates might help allay fears of the currency devaluing farther, and Russian banks are trying to calm the situation by paying higher interest.
“The financial system and banks in particular are clearly in danger as a crisis of trust seems to be developing as well,” Smolyaninov wrote. “We believe the worst is yet to come.” [Note: Slava Smolyaninov is deputy head of research for Moscow brokerage UralSib Capital - SiG]The root of the problem in Russia is the oil price situation I wrote about last Sunday. The problem is that Russia is so big that this will have effects well outside the country. Liam Halligan in the Telegraph (UK) fills in details on how a volatile Russia would be a bad thing for all of the European Union. It's worth a read for the perspective.
The eurozone can’t recover if Germany isn’t strong. The UK, in turn, can’t stage a proper recovery with the single currency area, its major trading partner, on the skids. Last week’s rouble collapse, and the detrimental impact it will have on business sentiment and investment, even if the turmoil ends now, means Russia will contract by 3-4pc next year. That pleases hawkish commentators, given their hope that a deep recession might result in the ousting of President Putin. But it’s bad news for the jobs and livelihoods of ordinary households across the whole of Western Europe.Halligan points out the Russia's economy is really stronger than it appears right now; certainly light years ahead of the US economy in at least one regard:
There’s a big current account surplus and government debts are among the lowest in the world. With liabilities in roubles and many revenues in dollars, the fiscal balance actually improves when the currency falls. A mere $2.1bn of sovereign borrowing is repayable next year – which is minuscule.If he's right, Russia might have a rough Christmas or a rough few months, but they're fundamentally sound. In contrast the US is having smooth months that I frankly don't understand when you consider our $18+ trillion dollar debt and $116 Trillion in unfunded liabilities (I like to call that "promises made").
Russian protesters on 12/12 (source). The article translates the signs as "Banks make us beggars", and "How to live. Mortgages in dollars". The first one, at least, is exactly wrong - and you hear similar thoughts here in the USA. The banks, and especially the central banks, would have zero power to mess with the currency and make people beggars if the governments didn't allow it. It's the governments that are making us beggars, not the banks. If governments didn't hand control of the nations' economies to central bankers they could do nothing of the sort. Of course, then the politicians couldn't run up trillion dollar annual deficits, multi-trillion dollar debts and do all the vote buying they do.
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