ULA Vulcan's Cert-2 Flight Looks to be Slipping

While Vulcan's Cert-1 flight back in January went successfully, checking off lots of accomplishment boxes, the plan we've known United Launch Alliance wanted to follow was two certification flights and hoping to have their certification from the US Space Force to launch National Security payloads granted by the end of 2024. 

The payload for the Cert-2 flight has long been said to be Sierra Space's Dream Chaser spacecraft - the one that looks like a miniature Space Shuttle. The only problem is that it's increasingly looking like the payload won't be ready for the mission ULA is planning. While a real date isn't announced, we know they've been targeting June - the early talk after January's Cert-1 flight was "April-ish." Ars Technica reports that it's looking to be slipping out, probably into the fall, which makes having everything completed for certification by the end of the year less likely. Delaying input to the process by three months seems likely to delay the output by that much, too.

As usual, this is a complex story with lots of places where conflict can arise. Dream Chaser is scheduled to deliver cargo to the Space Station (ISS) in an unmanned, autonomous flight like the other vehicles. NASA's internal scheduling had the craft penciled in for September, but that can be moved by NASA as desired based on other concerns. 

In fact, there is skepticism within the space agency about a fall launch. According to one source, during a recent meeting to integrate planning for space station activities, there were significant inconsistencies in the schedule that Sierra Space officials laid out for NASA.

At all times, the ISS team has to coordinate arriving crew and cargo vehicles from SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and Russia as well as the Dream Chaser cargo mission. They're expected to operate in the best interest of the ISS at all times, and if the station needs something that one's carrying which is different from the previous plans, they change the order of flights. 

While ULA has always stressed the first two missions are their cert flights, it is possible to certify with one flight, and conversely, with more than two flights.

Previously, Col. Douglas Pentecost of the Space Force said United Launch Alliance had chosen the Vulcan certification path requiring the least amount of launches: two. By contrast, Blue Origin has agreed to a three-flight certification process, which requires less paperwork. There is also a six-flight option and even a 14-flight option for certification. The latter option essentially means that if your rocket flies 14 times, it earns certification.

Nevertheless, there is a precedent for a single-flight certification. In 2018, the Air Force agreed to certify SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket after its debut launch in February of that year. That decision was controversial enough that it generated a review by the Department of Defense Inspector General, which found that the military had "generally complied" with its procurement rules.

It's worth noting that Falcon Heavy didn't launch a military payload on its next two flights. Which makes it appear that the initial certification was conditional on the success of the next two commercial missions and it was really a three flight certification. 

Yet another wild card that might be on the table is to launch Cert-2 carrying a different payload than Dream Chaser. 

Two sources said United Launch Alliance had asked Space Systems Command, the Los Angeles-based unit responsible for military access to space, for at least a partial certification of Vulcan based on data from its initial launch. This would potentially allow Vulcan to carry national security payloads on its second flight or perhaps Defense Innovation Unit payloads such as Blue Origin's DarkSky-1 mission.

Vulcan Centaur's Cert-1 flight lifts off on January 8, 2024 from SLC-40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Image credit: United Launch Alliance.

I think the only thing I conclude out of this is "Stay Tuned."