Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Happy Independence Day - 2024

I've run this post almost every July 4th in the 14 years I've been blogging.  There were only two years I didn't and both of those posts were about problems that must have seemed really big. They not only were really big but still are (20122014).  My lesson is that while they were important, the big picture is to remind ourselves of the history, and enjoy the day with family and friends.  The problems will still be here on the fifth. On Glenn Beck's program today, he said maybe we should make it a point to reread the Declaration of Independence. I think that's especially important if you still have kids at home. 

IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776

The Unanimous Declaration of the Thirteen United States of America  

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.
 
He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them. 

He has refused to pass other laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation in the legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only. 

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures. 

He has dissolved representative houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people. 

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the legislative powers, incapable of annihilation, have returned to the people at large for their exercise; the state remaining in the meantime exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within. 

He has endeavored to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the laws for naturalization of foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migration hither, and raising the conditions of new appropriations of lands. 

He has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing judiciary powers. 

He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries. 

He has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance. 

He has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislature. 

He has affected to render the military independent of and superior to civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation: 

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us: 

For protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states: 

For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world: 

For imposing taxes on us without our consent: 

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of trial by jury: 

For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses: 

For abolishing the free system of English laws in a neighboring province, establishing therein an arbitrary government, and enlarging its boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule in these colonies: 

For taking away our charters, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments: 

For suspending our own legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever. 

He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us. 

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burned our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people. 

He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation. 

He has constrained our fellow citizens taken captive on the high seas to bear arms against their country, to become the executioners of their friends and brethren, or to fall themselves by their hands. 

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian savages, whose known rule of warfare, is undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions. 

In every stage of these oppressions we have petitioned for redress in the most humble terms: our repeated petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people. 

Nor have we been wanting in attention to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, enemies in war, in peace friends. 

We, therefore, the representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by the authority of the good people of these colonies, solemnly publish and declare, that these united colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent states; that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the state of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as free and independent states, they have full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent states may of right do. And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.
 

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It has been shown mathematically that in a system with multiple parties, they either converge to two declared parties or through something like a coalition system they functionally become a two party system. In our society, we are too broken apart along party lines, despite the idea of one big “uniparty” now being the subject of millions of jokes and other comments.  In reality, the important choice is a question of whether or not the politico you're referring to is a follower of our founding documents or someone else's. Right now, it appears the biggest competing idea is a tyrannical minority in the name of some form equality, equity or some such nonsense. The biggest competitor is Karl Marx. People are not, and cannot be both free and equal. We are either free or forced into subjugation to create equal outcomes. Opportunities can be equal, like that word that used to be a goal but is now punishable: colorblind. Outcomes can't be.

Enjoy your day no matter what you do. To those who serve - and have served - to provide this gift of liberty for us:  Thank You from the bottom of my heart.



Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Keep an Eye on Beryl and Starbase

As always around this time of year, it kind of becomes a hobby of mine to watch the tropics and whatever is going on. Needless to say, this week has been focused on what became Hurricane Beryl and watching the predictions. The storm track has always been fairly narrow, meaning the models tended to be in agreement. A minor exception is that a couple of days ago, the forecast approach to Jamaica drifted away from the island but then started drifting back. As of now, it looks like the south side of Jamaica is going to get hammered. As of the 5PM update, Beryl was no longer Cat 5 with winds at 165, but at 8PM, she's still a strong Cat 4 with winds of 150 mph. Very little infrastructure, even well built, can take that. This prediction chart can be found at the National Hurricane Center.

I want to draw your attention to the westernmost end of the predicted track, showing the storm going ashore in Mexico as a tropical storm at 2PM Sunday. The expansion of the track as the 5 days goes by is normal, and I've seen everything from about this width to giant circles at 5 days when the models don't agree.  The way the end of the path goes asymmetric, with a kink around where the date/time is 2PM Saturday, is an indication the models are leaning toward the storm curving more northerly toward the end. Here's the plot of the 1800Z UTC (2PM EDT) model runs from Tropical Tidbits, a good, geeky place to get info.

You can see a few traces toward the top of the path, and those are like the the bubble showing a bias to that direction.

SpaceX's Starbase Boca Chica is essentially at the Texas/Mexico border not quite half the diameter of that circle above the point of impact in the NHC forecast above. The blue lines at the bottom of the model runs are the UK Meterological Office, or UKMET models, which over the years have garnered my respect for being right quite often. That argues it probably will take the centerline that the Hurricane Center plot above it shows. Probably.

How do we know what to expect? We don't know. We have to wait and find out. Chances are that by the time the storm hits the Yucatan peninsula around the northern border of Belize early Friday morning, we'll have a better idea where this is going. If every run of the models keeps pushing the storm further north and east, keep up with those models.

The potential impacts to Starbase obviously go up the closer landfall gets to the base. At some point, and it might be Thursday (?), they're going to have to start preparing for the storm. It's hard to imagine the storm can generate as much force as the launch mount gets from a Super Heavy, but it's just as hard to imagine nothing gets thrown around in the wind.

 


Monday, July 1, 2024

Starliner is NOT "Stranded in Space"

NASA wants you to know that Starliner is feeling much better and is now fine. Probably. They just need to do some more tests to find out just how "fine" it is. And besides, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are not stranded. They're perfectly safe. NASA and Boeing pushed back on Friday against the rumors you see everywhere to make all that clear.

Batteries on this Starliner spacecraft were initially only certified for a 45-day mission duration, but NASA officials said they are looking at extending the limit after confirming the batteries are functioning well.

“We have the luxury of time," said Ken Bowersox, associate administrator for NASA's space operations mission directorate. “We’re still in the middle of a test mission. We’re still pressing forward."

What's beyond questioning is that Starliner Crewed Flight Test, CFT-1, was intended to stay on the ISS around eight days, which would have been until around Friday, June 14, but that was delayed within three days of its arrival at the station, on June 9, three weeks ago.  About two weeks after that, we started hearing that "yes, but" story that Starliner was only cleared for a 45 day mission to the ISS. If we start on the launch day, 45 days is until July 21, a Sunday. Now NASA says they're looking at extending the limit beyond 45 days (although they didn't offer another number) after they confirm the batteries can make it. 

Steve Stich, manager of NASA's commercial crew program, said Friday that he wanted to clear up "misunderstandings" that led to headlines claiming the Starliner spacecraft was stuck or stranded at the space station.

“I want to make it very clear that Butch and Suni are not stranded in space," Stich said. "Our plan is to continue to return them on Starliner and return them home at the right time. We have a little bit more work to do to get there for the final return, but they're safe on (the) space station." [Bold added: SiG]

Both NASA and Boeing wanted to emphasize that they're are not even talking about using anything other than the immediately available vehicles. In addition to Starliner, SpaceX's Crew Dragon and Russia's Soyuz are docked to the ISS. 

"Obviously, we have the luxury of having multiple vehicles, and we work contingency plans for lots of different cases, but right now, we’re really focused on returning Butch and Suni on Starliner," Stich said.

"We're not stuck on the ISS," said Mark Nappi, Boeing's vice president in charge of the Starliner program. "It's pretty painful to read the things that are out there. We've gotten a really good test flight that's been accomplished so far, and it's being viewed rather negatively.”

Stich said NASA officials should have "more frequent interaction" with reporters to fill in gaps of information on the Starliner test flight. NASA's written updates are not always timely, and often lack details and context.

They said NASA has already cleared Starliner for an emergency return to Earth if astronauts need to evacuate the space station for safety - as almost happened when that Russian satellite exploded last Wednesday (6/26) - or for medical reasons. But NASA hasn't yet approved Starliner for reentry and landing under "nominal" conditions.

 As you might imagine, a large part of the concern is the thruster issue. The purpose of the the next few weeks delay is to give engineers time to test a Starliner thruster on the ground. During the approach to dock at the ISS, Starliner's control software said five of Starliner's 28 reaction control system thrusters were unusable. Several days later, during a test while docked, four of those five were cleared for use, but there's a really big "but" hanging there. They can't be certain the thrusters fired at full thrust because of limitations while docked at the space station. 

So engineers will take an identical thruster on the ground and test-fire it at a NASA facility in New Mexico. The test will simulate the exact sequence of firings Starliner's thrusters performed as it approached the space station and the firing sequence engineers expect when Starliner undocks and returns to Earth.

The test will take a couple of weeks, then engineers will inspect the thruster. "The test will help us understand the thruster performance," Stich said. "It may give us 100 percent confidence that everything we’ve seen on orbit is fine. It’s just one more piece of data that we can have before we actually de-orbit the vehicle.”

At the end of the mission, Starliner's service module will detach before reentry and burn up, while the crew module parachutes to an airbag-cushioned landing, likely at White Sands, New Mexico. Officials are eager to gather as much data on thruster performance as possible in flight because they won't have an opportunity to inspect the service module after landing.

Then there's the matter I had forgotten about, that the second unmanned flight test in May of '22 also had thruster issues, and they thought software fixes would take care of the problems. Either they totally misunderstood what was really happening and did an incorrect fix or this is a new and different problem. It argues for these tests they're planning to do. There really is no good way to test some aspects of hardware behavior on orbit other than testing it on orbit.

Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams at the docking port entry to the ISS. Image credit: NASA