Monday, November 18, 2024

If You Should Ever Be With Gwynne Shotwell in a Meeting

It would be good idea to not expect her to be a DEI hire and an especially not to treat her like one. You might get crushed like a bug.  Figuratively speaking, of course.

Eric Berger does an interesting article on Gwynne centered around a financial conference on Friday in which she talked about her vision for SpaceX in the coming few years. 

Perhaps it's best to continue with that idea of her not being a DEI, or just being hired to be a pretty face.  She's one of the early hires at SpaceX and was leading their sales effort when there was literally nothing to sell. They were six years away from reaching orbit

Apart from founder Elon Musk, Gwynne Shotwell is now SpaceX's longest tenured employee. She joined the company just months after its founding in 2002 as vice president of sales. In 2008, she became president of the company and has led its operations since then. Although she is more diplomatic than Musk, her desire to disrupt the global spaceflight industry is no less intense. She relishes the fight, as her remarks at the business conference indicated.

With the time being close to the sixth test flight of Starship, it's fitting she commented a lot about the future for the groundbreaking rocket. 

"We just passed 400 launches on Falcon, and I would not be surprised if we fly 400 Starship launches in the next four years," Shotwell said at the Baron Investment Conference in New York City. "We want to fly it a lot."

I read that 400 Starship launches in four years not as 100 per year, but an increasing number every year - that's how it typically works after all. It's hard to wrap our heads around this, but there might not be enough liquid oxygen and liquid methane production capacity to do that 100/year.  Right now they only have one operational pad, with two more in the works. It helps to note that even now, with Starship flying test flights, SpaceX will launch Starship four times this year, twice the number of Falcon Heavy missions. An acceleration of Starship launches is highly likely. Yes, the Falcon 9 boosters used in the heavy consume RP-1 (high quality kerosene) so the fuel side of that observation isn't the same. 

Shotwell said SpaceX is planning to steadily replace its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches with Starship missions in the coming years. Even the last bastion of Falcon 9 flights—crewed missions on the Dragon spacecraft—will end sooner than people realize, she said.

"Starship obsoletes Falcon 9 and the Dragon capsule," she said. "Now, we are not shutting down Dragon, and we are not shutting down Falcon. We'll be flying that for six to eight more years, but ultimately, people are going to want to fly on Starship. It's bigger. It's more comfortable. It will be less expensive. And we will have flown it so many more times."

It's especially worth reading to read her views on current regulations and the possible nationalization or government priority for their missions.  Go read the whole thing

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and NASA astronaut Bob Behnken share a laugh. Credit: Eric Berger



14 comments:

  1. SpaceX and Musk suffer no fools in the workforce. He'll fire someone just as quickly as he'll be walking around, talk to a contract employee and then turn to his aide and say, "He/She needs to be on our payroll." And that means 'by end of today or sooner.'

    I like Gwen. I've met female detectives like her and other female bosses. They look nice and sweet, are wicked smart and will cut your legs out from underneath you while smiling.

    Interesting that while others are looking to put 1-3 metric tons up, SpaceX is thinking of getting rid of Falcon 9 (which, along with Dragon, are made in California which SpaceX is trying to get out of) and shift all to Starship. In four to eight years. About the time that even the medium and heavy lift projects of everyone else will be coming on line.

    SpaceX will have a virtual monopoly on spaceflight except for some passion and pet projects.

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  2. Shotwell is the glue that hold SpaceX together. She and Elon make a helluva formidable team! She may be in the background, but is the power behind the throne.

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  3. I read the whole thing.
    My thoughts are that so much is in play, at an increasing level of sophistication (the interplay of new applications of technology, launch cadence, material acquisitions, regulation, et c) at an increasing rapidity, what is said in 2024, including future projections, will barely little resemblance ten years from now. Maybe even in less time.

    Space X might already be thinking of ways to direct national security but with being subsumed by the leviathan. That is, more than winning the regulatory battles, but to be in position to break an agency.

    What I could find is that Space X is 64% of launches at Vandenburg. I don't know how accurate is that number. Whatever the actual number, it is bound to increase. So, more than the issue of launch approvals is the issue of launches at all. Space X is the largest player. Even without pushing the issue Space X IS nat'l security. Gov at all levels must get online and onboard sooner than later.

    On top of all that, Space X continues to publicly announce that they want other companies to come along. How all of this will manifest in the coming years is gonna be interesting, unprecedented, and wild.

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  4. Phone software thinks it knows better what I write.

    bare, not barely
    withOUT being subsumed

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    Replies
    1. the grammar nazi's at it again
      I believe the word you're looking for is bear (carry, show, or display)

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    2. You're right about bear vs. bare, but the grammar police wish to point out that Nazi's is the possessive while the plural (for more than one Nazi) doesn't have an apostrophe.
      ;-)

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    3. Not only that, but NAZI being an acronym, it is all capital letters.

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  5. Sounds like a good time to buy stock in stainless steel manufacturers!

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    Replies
    1. And on Space X. Several stories about an IPO. Opening price is anywhere from $135 to $255.

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    2. There have been stories about Space X going public for years. I doubt it. The drag of shareholders and a public board are not things that Musk will put up with in pursuit of his Mars vision. You might see Starlink spun off but the launch business will remain private. It's not as if Musk is having problems attracting private capital for Space X when he needs it.

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  6. You maybe didn't notice it there SiG, but you just posted a "Go LONG" order on LOX and liquid methane manufacturers.

    Don't be surprised if Musk doesn't start such a company or companies from scratch, to vertically integrate.

    I don't know much, but I can see that from a mile off.

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  7. There should be air reduction plants at launch sites to produce LOX and Liq Nitrogen. LNG Plans fed by gas pipelines are no more complicated. I know there are LOX plants at the Cape.

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  8. If I'm fortunate I'll see this evening flight from the Flight Levels as I wing that way.

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