Saturday, December 3, 2011

Got an Hour?

You could find a much worse way to spend an hour than to listen to Kyle Bass  at the AmeriCatalyst 2011 conference.  H/T to WSRA for the link. There's a short summary at ZeroHedge

Really worth watching - although you could just listen and not miss much.  Bass is a hedge fund manager who made a lot of money betting the right way in the '08 crash, and is obviously the guru at this conference.

If he's right, the EU will go through its collapse this coming year, and money will flow toward the US -  not because we're in good shape, we're just better off than they are.  This will give our officials false optimism and make them think they're not stupid.  The US collapse happens after that.  He believes that war is certain, as has always been the case when economies teeter and fall. 

Somewhere in there, he quotes an "administration official" telling him they are trying to destroy the dollar as a strategy - so we're not paranoid. 


  1. Richard Cloward, Francis Fox Piven, Barry Soetero.

  2. Damn.

    I got to stop reading you, because you harsh my mellow. And I have to get you managing my portfolio.

  3. Thanks for the pointer. That was very interesting. I am not looking forward to my "golden years." I think they're much more likely to be my "brass, lead and copper years."

  4. War is inevitable with the economic collapse that is coming. Get ready for an invasion by the Chinese through Mexico and points North on the left coast and be ready for their allies to attack on the east coast. Those allies will probably include Iran, Venezuela, possibly Cuba and other piss ant countries that would be willing to join in with the backing of China. We are in for big trouble so we had best vote out the shithead who is currently our president and get one in there who is strong on the military.

    All the best,

  5. Because I'm curious, I have a question; because I'm a cynic, it's going to be, well, on the blunt and cynical side.

    You could find a much worse way to spend an hour than to listen to Kyle Bass at the AmeriCatalyst 2011 conference.

    My predicted summary:

    Point 1: the euro and the EU are already screwed, they just don't want to admit it yet, so they're going to ruin their remaining decent economies trying to rescue the PIIGS.

    Point 2: the US will be irretrievably screwed within two years at the most, as Barry Lackwit's deficits really start to bite. Preventing that is impossible because nobody dares to do what's necessary, namely cut US federal spending by a minimum of 40%.

    There. Two minutes instead of an hour. I'm sure he gave more detail, but I expect he came to the same conclusions. Am I right?

  6. So let's say you're sitting in Germany in say...1937. High inflation, war drums beating...

    Short of going to America - if you could - how do you prepare?

    [Did Germany have a stock market then? Would it be educational to study it? What was the Reichsmark worth over the years in was the legal currency? From what little I think I know, the metal used in the coins became baser metals: silver to zinc? Something like US coins today]

    Guess I have more research on my list

  7. Wolfwalker - you're about 75 or 80% correct. It's a bit more involved, but the big picture is along those lines. In that sense, I knew it before I watched that, too, but - hey - I had the hour!

    Q - the relevant point is that there's nowhere to go. The whole world is on the verge of collapse. What to do is the stuff you know - the four B's or five G's or whichever handy way you have of describing having food, shelter, some way to barter or trade, and defend your little piece of turf.

  8. Wouldn't it be nice to have this bloke's money to prep with? I'd love to see what his gun room looks like, and what sort of compound he will be living in, if he is smart enough to prep. It was nice of him to try to warn the rest of us, though.

    Calls to mind the 26,000 acre (CB) ranch that the CEO of Intel bought just a couple miles away from where I have been living in Montana. A lot of really nice elk hang out on that ranch.

  9. Reg - seriously! I also got a laugh out of his story about taking physical possession of gold.

    ("What if everyone wants delivery?" - "Oh, that'll never happen, only about 4% ever want physical, and if they ever do, the market price will settle who gets it" - "give me the gold".)

  10. SiG: I agree with your relevant point.
    Here we is; here we what we can, and hope for the best.

    My optimism is that I think we have until at least next November ... maybe until inauguration in Jan '13. I suspect we'll know by summer '13.