Friday, October 16, 2015

Early Retirement Forecast

All the paperwork is in place for me to be out by the week before Christmas, so I went looking for the annual Florida Dry Season Forecast.  As you've probably heard, a strong El Nino is developing in the equatorial Pacific.  The effects on Florida are pretty well understood, and while they don't set the absolute forecast in stone, they do create a direction.  It looks like this.
Hmmm.  Both precipitation and storminess (don't they go together?) are predicted to be well above normal, with normal temperatures through January, and below normal until April.  This is, after all, our usual dry season.  My impression is that December brings more rainy cold fronts than January.  I have many memories of adjusting outside lights after cold rains before Christmas, but I also have lots of memories of bike riding on achingly beautiful days in January and February.  Our coldest time tends to be January - sometimes extending into mid-February

Sounds like I'm likely to be spending more time in the shop than fishing for the first few months.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.


  1. The 2016 "Old Farmer's Almanac" says just the opposite for our winter. Temps a bit above ave. except for March and precip a bit below ave. Picked up my copy at Publix last week (Southern Edition). Check it out next time you are there. Pg. 196
    This will be a good test of who gets it right.

  2. I should have said I don't typically think very much of those predictions. They're difficult to match to reality. Take "temperatures below normal". Does that mean a February with one really cold spell of a few days and the rest of the time being like March weather? When I think of what that means, I think of it being a bit cooler than average every week. Chances are it means that if it's stormier and wetter, then it's cloudier and the sun is blocked more.

  3. :-phhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhttttttttttttttttttttt

    Yeah, I still have 9 1/2 years. Why do you ask???????