Monday, September 16, 2024

A Finale on the Polaris Dawn Mission

Sunday morning, as planned, the Polaris Dawn Crew Dragon capsule splashed into the waters west of the Dry Tortugas. Splashdown was at 3:37 AM instead of the 3:36 listed in the schedule earlier Saturday, but I'm going to assume there's really not much that can be done to a capsule landing under parachutes to make it take meaningfully more or less time to get down. I think the answer is "close enough." 

In the world of privately funded manned spaceflight, this had to be the most ambitious flight ever. In Jared Isaacman's first privately funded spaceflight, Inspiration4, just putting four civilians in orbit was remarkable. Since then, aside from acting as the dedicated "ISS Taxi" for NASA, SpaceX has brought astronauts from another private company, Axiom Space, to the ISS three separate times. (Axiom's 4th flight is currently penciled in for next spring).  In overview, Polaris Dawn was unlike all the other private space flights. It wasn't just a suborbital ride above the Karman line so riders could say they've been in space, nor was it a ride to what's effectively the orbiting Grand Hotel and University Labs of the Space Station. 

It was record setting. 

On the first day of the flight, the mission flew to an altitude of 1,408.1 km. The headline has been that it's the first time a human has been that far up since the last Apollo flight passed through it on the way to reentry. I tend to think of the record as going back a little past that to Gemini 11 in 1966, which rather deliberately, like Polaris Dawn, went to that altitude to orbit rather than "just passing through." 

Then, on the third day of the flight, the space walk took place. More a test of the EVA suits overall function than the sort of tethered spacewalk of Gemini 4, or the ISS astronauts much more recently, it still set records for things never done by private space missions.  As Eric Berger points out at Ars Technica:

Although this foray into space largely repeated what the Soviet Union, and then the United States, performed in the mid-1960s, with tethered spacewalks, it nonetheless was significant. These commercial spacesuits cost a fraction of government suits and can be considered version 1.0 of suits that could one day enable many people to walk in space, on the Moon, and eventually Mars.

Remember: SpaceX openly talks about needing millions of spacesuits like these. More than any other company in the space industry that I'm aware of, SpaceX is the master of rapid iteration. If that was version 1.0, the designers probably have done another version every day since Thursday.  At least one.  

This wasn't just a billionaire "joy ride" in which Jared Isaacman got to enjoy a week of thrill-seeking that mere mortals can't remotely afford. This was a high risk, important adventure from start to finish. 

The reality is that Isaacman and his hand-picked crew, which included two SpaceX employees who will take their learnings back to design spacecraft and other vehicles at the company, trained hard for this mission over the better part of two years. In flying such a daring profile to a high altitude through potential conjunctions with thousands of satellites, and then venting their cabin to perform a spacewalk, each of the crew members assumed high risks.

For its Crew Dragon missions that fly to and from the International Space Station, NASA has an acceptable "loss-of-crew" probability of 1-in-270. But in those spaceflights the crew spends significantly less time inside Dragon and flies to a much lower and safer altitude. They do not conduct spacewalks out of Dragon. The crew of Polaris Dawn, therefore, assumed non-trivial dangers in undertaking this spaceflight. These risks assumed were measured rather than reckless.

So why? Why take such risks? Because the final frontier, after nearly seven decades of spaceflight, remains largely unexplored. If it is human destiny to one day expand to other worlds, and eventually other stars, we're going to need to do so with more than a few government astronauts making short sorties. To open space there must be lower cost access and commercial potential.

The streak at the upper left, about the apparent height of the moon, is Polaris Dawn during reentry. The vessels in the foreground are the deployed recovery ships ready to go and secure the capsule. Image credit: Polaris Program/John Kraus

To edit the line I ended with on Thursday, this was more than one small walk for a man and woman; this was one giant leap for mankind.



18 comments:

  1. With all those accomplishments, you would think that this would have been all over the news. I've hardly seen anything. You'd also think that both candidates would be playing this up, wanting to be seen with the crew, etc. The background war going on between the administration and Musk is really something.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think that SpaceX has reached the 'Apollo 13 before the Accident' moment. They've made space travel so commonplace that it isn't big news anymore.

      The timing wasn't great for publicity either. Between politics and politics, space travel is just a side-show.

      Now Starliner showed how to make headlines. Screw up constantly and it is big news and stays big news. Succeed and Exceed and it's boring and normal and not-newsworthy.

      Remember, if it bleeds it leads.

      Reminds me of the song "Dirty Money" which is all about the media's penchant for drama and theater.

      Delete
    2. Beans, are you thinking of "Dirty Laundry" by one of the Eagles, Don Henley?
      Yeah, it fits perfectly!

      Delete
    3. What I've seen is numerous comments deriding the flight. Like, So what, it wasn't a real EVA; Where was the space walk that was promised; Yawn, another billionaire bucket list

      I think, what is wrong with people? Perhaps they are so ignorant of what it takes to accomplish such a flight. And just not care. But caring enough to make idiotic comments

      Delete
    4. Igor, yes, "Dirty Laundry." I loved it when President Reagan used it as music for his administration's hit video during one year's White House Correspondants' Dinner.

      Rick, people are 'bored' of space flight because, well, it's boring. And, yes, they don't understand how technically complex the Polaris Dawn mission was. As to the 'ignorant' part, most people are purposefully ignorant, having been taught to be by the education system and the media and their leaders and 'betters.'

      Delete
  2. The Demon-rats hate space and hate the concept that man may one day colonize Mars. They want limits, reductions, and no grand adventure as humans make themselves extinct to 'save the planet'..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have though of such pronouncements as disingenuous tropes. But not anymore. Now I think that is exactly the case. They detest that which they cannot control.
      That is a sad commentary on humanity. At the pinnacle of technological achievement but thinking like the dark age.

      Delete
  3. One of the really interesting things was the 2nd spacewalker, a SpaceX engineer, was inspecting the door seal and fixing where it had bulged due to pressure issues, and communicated this with SpaceX ground control. She then inspected the rest of the door and the space walker components, while sending video to SpaceX and conferring with her fellows.

    Both Jared and her spent a good portion of their actual spacewalk working the suit and reporting how it was fitting, acting and reacting to them moving.

    I am sure that, once all four astronauts get to sit down with the design and construction teams, that any already-talked-about improvements will be superseded by yet another iteration or two.

    And the question arises, will SpaceX make a '1 suit does all' style of EVA suit or will it generate 'Moonwalker,' 'Marswalker' and 'Spacewalker' versions?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All three, Beans, for now. Until we can engineer One Spacesuit to Rule Them All we are going to have specialized versions...

      Delete
    2. But the neat thing is SpaceX can produce on-time and under-budget and imminently repeatable. I wouldn't put it past SpaceX to become one of the largest specialty fabric fabricators in the nation, maybe the world.

      SpaceX isn't just revolutionizing rockets, they're revolutionizing everything, including sewing, involved in all aspects of space flight, from the littlest things to the great things. No other company or nation has shown the focus to do this, and it's wonderful.

      Delete
    3. I foresee a concept of layering. Start with the same under suit which provides radiation shielding plus, of course, addressing biological issues. Add a layer(s) for whatever task or duty at hand. New flexible and hard materials will be invented, and/or new applications requiring modifications to existing materials.

      Weight and space saving. An astronaut could be prepared to perform different tasks as easy as changing clothes.

      Delete
  4. I still wonder why a NASA astronaut used Soyuz to ISS last week. Obviously I haven't looked that hard for the answer. I reckon that was the only flight open for 69 yr old Donald Pettit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pettit is scheduled for a six month stay at ISS.

      Delete
    2. I haven't looked for Don Pettit specifically, but I think we still have a contract with the Russians to use their Soyuz taxi.

      Delete
    3. Because we're keeping the Russian space program alive. That's why we're flying on Soyuz and Russian hardware which isn't exactly safest in the last 10 years.

      Delete
  5. At some point, I'm expecting Elon Musk to jump bigly into advanced modular 4th or 5th generation nuclear reactors. They will be needed on Mars, and certainly beyond Mars.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At some point, someone is going to produce something like the KRUSTY nuclear power systems envisioned for the moon KRUSTY - Kilopower Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY. There are already companies with a head start, but we're talking about Elon here. Head starts are no guarantee. Blue Origin landed a rocket before he did and you can see how far that got them.

      As I said back then, if those things were 20kW (or 30), I'd have to start looking for financing. Put that sucker in my back yard!

      Delete
    2. The problem isn't the technology - it's government regs that make any reactor, no matter how small, very expensive to license.
      This is why almost all research on small tractors is foreign, particularly Canada and South Africa.
      Jonathan

      Delete