This graphic is from Dr. Roy Spencer, posted at Watts Up With That and at his own blog. For those who don't know Dr. Spencer, here's his bio page. What this shows is the predicted sea surface temperature trends predicted by 13 different CMIP6 climate models that were run 68 different times. Those are plots in the various colors, behind the bolder, black line. The black line is 42 years of measured data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Clearly, for most of the plots, starting around 1992, the CMIP6 models dramatically over predict the temperature rise.
Dr. Spencer is a reasonable scientist, he admits there are things he doesn't know and more.
A related issue is how much the deep oceans are warming. As I have mentioned before, the (inarguable) energy imbalance associated with deep-ocean warming in recent decades is only about 1 part (less than 1 Watt per sq. m) in 300 of the natural energy flows in the climate system.That's the big issue we're facing: the reliance on models that don't match measured data and a reluctance to actually do the work to test a model. The data is often hard to measure and truly global. Just what does global average temperature even mean and how can it possibly be measured with the accuracy?
This is a very tiny energy imbalance in the climate system. We know NONE of the natural energy flows to that level of accuracy.
What that means is that global warming could be mostly natural, and we would not even know it.
I’m not claiming that is the case. I am merely pointing out the level of faith that is involved in the adjustments made to climate models, which necessarily produce warming due to increasing CO2 because those models simply assume that there is no other source of warming.
Last words to Dr. Spencer:
Why does it matter?There's no reason to spend trillions of dollars on the climate. That will create real suffering and buy nothing good.
It matters because there is no Climate Crisis. There is no Climate Emergency.
Yes, irregular warming is occurring. Yes, it is at least partly due to human greenhouse gas emissions. But seldom are the benefits of a somewhat warmer climate system mentioned, or the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere (which is required for life on Earth to exist).