Thursday, July 23, 2015

The A Word

For the first time in the history of this blog, I'm going to put up a content warning for graphic, disgusting language.  Not f-words or boring old stuff like that.  Gruesome, disgusting things.  

I had one of those odd synchronicity things, where stories just line up.  Or maybe it wasn't weird synchronicity, maybe it just all goes together.

First, there was all the hidden camera video from Planned Parenthood, talking about harvesting baby parts for sale.  Talking about how they mastered just slightly side-stepping the law by putting a baby in breech position so they could crush it's little skull and still harvest a healthy liver and maybe a heart and lungs.  How they do "less crunchy" abortions so that the valuable little organs are available for sale so they can recover their costs - as one of the modern Dr.s Mengele put it.  As Michael Ramirez put it:
But everyone knows abortion is supposed to be "available, safe and rare", right?  It turns out that isn't quite right.  In New York City, more black babies are aborted than born.
In 2012, there were more black babies killed by abortion (31,328) in New York City than were born there (24,758), and the black children killed comprised 42.4% of the total number of abortions in the Big Apple, according to a report by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.
That's about a 1.25 aborted to every live birth, roughly 5/4.  As actress Stacey Dash put it, Black Lives Don't Seem to Matter in NYC.   She also publishes an astounding quote by Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in a 2009 interview with the occasionally-truthful New York Times.
“Frankly I had thought that at the time Roe was decided, there was concern about population growth and particularly growth in populations that we don’t want to have too many of.”
“...growth in populations that we don’t want to have too many of.” WTF???  Is this Margaret Sanger in the 1920s?  I've heard her referred to as Darth Vader Ginsburg.  She's earning it here.

Look, I know this is a difficult subject.  The life of unwanted children isn't a wonderful bed of roses.  The tired old argument about exceptions for incest only applies to 1% of abortions (according to Wikipedia), so it just distracts attention from the other 99%.  It's dishonest to talk about "tissue" and speculating "when does it become a human life?"  What do they think it is before then, a squid?  If it's not a life at all, what is it then: a Volkswagen?  It just strikes me as incredibly disconnected to have children in a neonatal intensive care unit who are a month or more older than a child being aborted across town.  A baby born 6 weeks premature is considered pretty likely to make it these days, but Planned Parenthood is talking about harvesting their organs. 

During the interviews one of the Planned Parenthood doctors put it, “We don’t want to be in a position of being accused of selling tissue and stuff like that”.  Can you imagine a drug dealer saying, “We don’t want to be in a position of being accused of selling cocaine and stuff like that.”  Isn't that tantamount to saying that's exactly what you're doing and you damned well know it?   


Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Techy Tuesday - Smart Dust

University of Michigan researchers have demonstrated the smallest complete computer to date: the Michigan Micro Mote.  They estimate 150 of them would fit in a sewing thimble.
“To be ‘complete,’ a computer system must have an input of data, the ability to process that data – meaning process and store it, make decisions about what to do next – and, ultimately, the ability to output the data,” says David Blaauw, a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at the University of Michigan. “The sensors are the input and the radios are the output. The other key to being a complete computer is the ability to supply its own power.”
Think of these as smart sensors.  With a power source, sensor and radio link, these could be used in places where it's too difficult to get something bigger.  Early talk is using these for medical purposes: monitoring processes inside the body, as well as conducting EKGs and detecting and monitoring tumor growth.  If you're of a certain age, you'll recall the 1966 film Fantastic Voyage.  It's not a miniature submarine with an equally miniature Raquel Welch in it, but the Micro Mote can actually be injected into the body to perform some of these functions.
Here's one perched on the rim of a nickel.   You'll note the glaring absence of a keyboard, mouse or monitor.  Instructions are sent to the Micro Mote by flashing a light at it (On Off Keying).  The output comes over the radio link, which they say is short range, on the order of 2 meters. 

The biggest problem in creating these dedicated computers is power.  The Micro Mote includes a "solar cell" which produces enough power to run the computer even indoors.  With a 1mm2 solar cell producing 20nW (20 nanoWatts, or 20 billionths of a Watt), the device can harvest enough energy under ambient light to run perpetually. The device’s standby current consumption is 2nA - 2 billionths of an Amp - claimed to be about one millionth of the standby current in typical cellphone. 

The University of Michigan website has some ideas on interesting uses for "smart dust".  I think we can count on some of these being developed!


Monday, July 20, 2015

Silver is Down - Don't Buy Silver?

Not me.  Not now. 

I believe in dollar cost averaging and just getting a set dollar amount on a regular schedule.  But not tonight.  I went to the usual dealers I go to.  The spot price for silver as I write this is $14.70.  The price at Apmex right now for their cheapest 90% silver, also called junk silver, coins is $5.86/oz over spot, a 39.7% markup.  Most of the other grades are $6.34/oz over spot, a 43.1% markup.  Silver eagles from the US mint are in the range of $4.45/oz over spot in small quantities; in large quantities, they're $3.33/oz. over. 

A divergence between the price of physical metal and the paper price we get from those spot price numbers (like the one just to the right of this column) usually indicates a disconnect between the amount of metal actually available and demand.  Good luck getting it for any price closer to the normal.  The companies that hold the coins figure the price will be higher in a few weeks or so, and they can sell the coins then.  For now, if you want to pay a 43% markup, they'll take your money.  I personally don't see any sense in buying at a 43% markup, even though I pay the same amount of Federal Reserve Notes at some time in the future and get the same ounce of silver only with a smaller markup.  I fully admit that may not be rational!

There's always some difference between the spot price and the physical metal price.  You could say that spot is a theoretical number based on pure metal with no processing involved, but in reality it's the price of hypothetical silver in a paper trade.  It's a regular occurrence that more paper is traded on a given day than all the silver in the world.  If anyone called the bets on those days, there wouldn't be enough silver to back the paper. 

Do I think it's all unraveling?  Most likely not, although a serious disconnect between the spot price and the hold-it-in-your-hand price is often thought of as a warning sign.  There's a famous saying that "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" and that seems to me to be what's going on.


Sunday, July 19, 2015

Computers - Can't Live With 'Em, Can't Dynamite 'Em

Sorry, fun seekers.  It was a crazy day; crazy weekend really.  Typical computer stuff. 

I have a Canon multi-function printer (printer/copier/scanner) about four feet behind and left of my left shoulder as I type this.  It has been there at least five years and I've been using it for that whole time, through at least a couple of computers (this one turned four years old in March) and running XP, Win 7 and Ubuntu operating systems.  As a rough number, I print something about once a week. Yesterday, my computer decided it wasn't going to work with it any more; in fact, it decided the printer had left the known universe.  Mrs. Graybeard could print to it just fine, but my system couldn't even find it.  One time during the day, I turned the printer off and back on again (universal software fix) and my computer found it, then lost it within the next half hour.  For the rest of the day, nothing I did would make it work.  I even turned this computer off and on again.

In frustration, I uninstalled it yesterday, figuring I'd reinstall it this morning.  And then, just because I haven't done it in a while, I defragmented my data drive yesterday. 

This morning when I started up the computer, this computer thought my 1 TB data drive was gone.  It offered me a chance to run a disk check while booting, but I opted to go to Windoze and work from there.  I keep a pretty good backup, doing a differential backup every other day, so I wasn't that concerned, but it's nice to have that terabyte there without having to work at it.  So I spent about two hours running disk checking utilities, and the process was very slow.  The task would sit there with no feedback to me whatsoever for long periods, then advance.  Just as I was about to head up to the local Staples and pick up another Terabyte drive, it started working. 

Again, I shut down and started up again, and this time it was fine.  On to the printer.  This time it only took about a half hour out of today, starting from no printer installed at all. 

Today's computers really are amazing technology - when they work.  You can buy anybody's accessories for it and they work - for the most part.  When they don't work, they can make you pull your hair and wish for the old days of dip switches and manually assigning IRQ numbers.  At least you felt like you had some control.


Saturday, July 18, 2015

"Institutionalized Reparations" Database Being Built by Obama

In a shocking story posted this afternoon to the New York Post, and picked up by the Drudge Report, author Paul Sperry reveals that the President whom the people had hoped would heal race relations in this country is taking unprecedented measures to make those relations worse than ever before.  Paul Sperry is a Hoover Institution media fellow and author of the book “The Great American Bank Robbery,” which exposed the racial politics behind the mortgage bust (Google Community Reinvestment Act - or search this blog's many postings on it). The administration is obtaining unprecedented information in order to prove racism.  They're doing this by data mining every piece of data the Fed.gov can get their hands on:
This Orwellian-style stockpile of statistics includes a vast and permanent network of discrimination databases, which Obama already is using to make “disparate impact” cases against: banks that don’t make enough prime loans to minorities; schools that suspend too many blacks; cities that don’t offer enough Section 8 and other low-income housing for minorities; and employers who turn down African-Americans for jobs due to criminal backgrounds.
Remember what I was saying a couple of weeks ago about "disparate impact theory"?  Here it is at the point of a bayonet.  The recent Supreme Court ruling I was talking about in that link said you could be successfully sued for discrimination even if your intent was not to discriminate and you did everything in your power not to discriminate, as long as a disparate impact can be shown.  Big Brother Barack wants the databases operational before he leaves office, and much of the data in them will be posted online, so civil-rights attorneys and urban activist groups will be able to exploit them to show patterns of “racial disparities” and “segregation,” even if no other evidence of discrimination exists.    
The granddaddy of them all is the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing database, which the Department of Housing and Urban Development rolled out earlier this month to racially balance the nation, ZIP code by ZIP code. It will map every US neighborhood by four racial groups — white, Asian, black or African-American, and Hispanic/Latino — and publish “geospatial data” pinpointing racial imbalances.

The agency proposes using nonwhite populations of 50% or higher as the threshold for classifying segregated areas.

Federally funded cities deemed overly segregated will be pressured to change their zoning laws to allow construction of more subsidized housing in affluent areas in the suburbs, and relocate inner-city minorities to those predominantly white areas. HUD’s maps, which use dots to show the racial distribution or density in residential areas, will be used to select affordable-housing sites.

HUD plans to drill down to an even more granular level, detailing the proximity of black residents to transportation sites, good schools, parks and even supermarkets. If the agency’s social engineers rule the distance between blacks and these suburban “amenities” is too far, municipalities must find ways to close the gap or forfeit federal grant money and face possible lawsuits for housing discrimination.
Did you enjoy the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and collapse?  They're working full tilt to create another one.
Meanwhile, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, headed by former Congressional Black Caucus leader Mel Watt, is building its own database for racially balancing home loans. The so-called National Mortgage Database Project will compile 16 years of lending data, broken down by race, and hold everything from individual credit scores and employment records.
...
The FHFA will also pry into your personal assets and debts and whether you have any bankruptcies. The agency even wants to know the square footage and lot size of your home, as well as your interest rate.

FHFA will share the info with Obama’s brainchild, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, CFPB, which acts more like a civil-rights agency, aggressively investigating lenders for racial bias.

CFPB is separately amassing a database to monitor ordinary citizens’ credit-card transactions. It hopes to vacuum up some 900 million credit-card accounts — all sorted by race — representing roughly 85% of the US credit-card market. Why? To sniff out “disparities” in interest rates, charge-offs and collections.
Just like everything with this virulently racist administration, everything ... everything ... is seen through the distorted prism of race.  No economic decision, no credit card purchase, no school punishment, nothing will be exempt from racial "balancing".  If black students behave worse than other groups, be they Asian, Hispanic or especially white, and those misbehaving students get disciplined more often, the schools will be punished.  If they are enrolled less often in programs for the gifted, the schools will be punished. 

I know I've lifted a lot from the NY Post article, but you should definitely go read the whole thing.  As author Paul Sperry concludes:
Such databases have never before existed. Obama is presiding over the largest consolidation of personal data in US history. He is creating a diversity police state where government race cops and civil-rights lawyers will micromanage demographic outcomes in virtually every aspect of society.

The first black president, quite brilliantly, has built a quasi-reparations infrastructure perpetually fed by racial data that will outlast his administration.


Friday, July 17, 2015

Pluto - at Childhood's End

I've been a bit slow to get around to posting about the New Horizons mission which successfully missed Pluto this week.  Just kidding.  As The Hitchhiker's Guide says, "Space is big".  It would be impossible to get that close to Pluto - or pretty much anything out there - without really masterful planning and execution.  Hats off to the Applied Physics Lab at Johns Hopkins and NASA.  I recall watching the liftoff of New Horizons and wondering what my life would be like when it got there. I never envisioned blogging, that's for sure!

In a way, this mission signifies childhood's end.  It completes mankind's initial exploration of the Solar System; our first visits to check out all of our neighborhood.  We've sent probes to every planet; we've landed on Mars and Venus, on comets, and asteroids, and this mission means we've visited a Kuiper belt object, as most classify the dwarf planet Pluto.  Beyond the Kuiper belt is interstellar space.  (Since New Horizons was launched January 19, 2006 and the decision to call it a dwarf planet came in August of 2006, Pluto was technically a "full up" planet when the mission started.) 

If childhood is over, then what?  More commercial operations, for sure.  I'm a big believer in unmanned missions like this.  First, we always get far more data per dollar on unmanned missions.  While there is a place for men in space, a mission like this is impossible with any manned space technology known or coming soon.  This is a disposable vehicle mission for sure: the probe took 9 1/2 years to get to Pluto and will continue along its ballistic path until it either hits something, or the universe dies around it.  Any mission with a crew would have to plan how to return to Earth, take fuel, food, and everything else needed.  A 9 1/2 year flyby mission would become a 20 or 25 year mission.  Add to that it's the kind or raw science mission with unknowable, or remote pay off possibilities that a benefactor is better at than a business.   Private space businesses really would do better to go capture one of the platinum asteroids to mine.  The payoff is bigger, and easier to use to obtain venture capital than a research mission.  It's easier to figure costs vs. payback with millions of tons of platinum.  They just have to not crash the market price for the metal - easier said than done when everyone knows you're sitting on a real mother lode!

As for government vs. private sector: if I had Bill Gates or even Donald Trump level money, I'd pay for a mission like this, for sure.  But it doesn't have to be a billionaire; Harvard's endowment is so large they could pay for this and never miss it: the whole mission so far hasn't cost $1 billion and they have about $50 B.  There's room for a medieval-style patron to fund missions like this. 
Scott Stantis captures the dichotomy that is the population.  To some people, it's an experience filled with wonder and awe.  To others, it's just another ball of ice.  To others still, I'm sure there will be a ton of wackos calling it all lies and coverups by NASA.  Every piece of orbital debris that shows up in frame near the Space Station is an alien vehicle, every rock on Mars is a fossil animal or evidence of other aliens.  Will they know what to attribute ice mountains on Pluto to? 


Thursday, July 16, 2015

The Resounding Stupidity of Central Banks and Central Planners

"Resounding stupidity" may sound a bit harsh, especially coming from us unwashed mundanes when we criticize our central bank philosopher kings.  But what other word can you apply to a group that is told of a better way to do their job, shown real world experimental results that show the suggested way really does work better, and yet chooses to ignore those results and follows their old models?

Note that in what follows, unless otherwise linked or attributed, the technical information and quotes in this post come from chapter 6 of: 
Rickards, James, The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System, Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
The contrast to the way the European Central Bank is handling Greece and, by extension, what I'm sure you've heard referred to as the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) is found in the BELL countries of Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.  Haven't heard of them?  That's because their story is a success story.
In addition to being EU members, they had all fixed the value of their local currencies to the euro. Pegging to the euro has led the BELLs into the same internal adjustment and devaluation as the Eurozone periphery, since they cannot use currency devaluation as a quick fix for dealing with economic adjustment issues.
Pegging means that they weren't using the Euro (although some have since gone over completely to it) they've just guaranteed their currencies are going to stay at some fixed price relative to the euro.  That means that any country trading with them has the perceived stability of the euro to deal with, not a currency that could be revalued whenever the issuing country felt like it. 

This is one of those rare instances in international monetary policy where there's almost a perfect controlled experiment.  Beginning in 2008 and continuing into 2009, each BELL country suffered approximately a 20 percent decline in output in those two years, and unemployment reached 20 percent. The decline in output in the GIIPS in the same period was only slightly less.  (Note that Jim Rickards uses the acronym GIIPS instead of PIIGS -- I don't know why).  Both groups suffered a loss of foreign investment and loss of access to the capital markets of about the same size.
From these comparable initial conditions, divergent policies were pursued. The GIIPS initially continued so-called economic stimulus and made only slight cuts in public spending. Greece actually increased the number of government employees between 2010 and 2011. The principal way of addressing fiscal issues in the GIIPS was through tax increases. The internal adjustment process of lowering unit labor costs began in the GIIPS only in 2010, and serious fiscal and labor market reform was begun in 2013; much work remains.

In contrast, the BELLs took immediate, drastic measures to put their fiscal houses in order, and strong growth resumed as early as 2010 and is now the highest in the EU. The turnaround was dramatic. Latvia’s economy contracted 24 percent in 2008– 9, but then grew over 10 percent in 2011– 12. Estonia contracted 20 percent in 2008– 9 but grew at a robust 7.9 percent rate in 2011. Lithuania’s economy did not suffer as much as the other BELLs in the crisis and actually grew 2.8 percent in 2008. Lithuania’s growth did decline in 2009, but it bounced back quickly and rose 5.9 percent in 2011. This pattern of collapse followed by robust growth in the Baltic BELLs is the classic V pattern that is much discussed but seldom seen in recent years because governments such as the United States use money printing to truncate the V, leaving protracted, anemic growth in its wake.

How does one account for this sharp turnaround in the Baltic states’ growth compared to the EU periphery? Anders Ã…slund, a scholar at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., and an expert on the eastern European and Russian economies, has written extensively on this topic. He attributes economic success in the Baltics and failure in southern Europe from 2009 to 2012 to specific factors. When confronted with severe economic contraction, he suggests, an affected nation must embrace the crisis and turn it to political advantage. Political leaders who explain clearly the economic choices to their citizens will gain support for tough policies, while leaders such as those in the United States and southern Europe who deny the problem’s depth will find that the sense of urgency recedes and that citizens are less willing over time to make the needed sacrifices. Ã…slund also urges that countries facing economic crises should embrace new leaders with new ideas. Vested interests associated with old leadership will be most likely to cling to failed policies, while new leaders are able to pursue the cuts in government spending needed to restore fiscal health.

Ã…slund also recommends that the emergency economic responses be clearly communicated, front-loaded, and weighted more to spending cuts than tax increases. Citizens will support policies they understand but will be ambivalent about the need for spending cuts if politicians sugarcoat the situation and prolong the process. He also says that “credible culprits are useful.” In Latvia’s case, three oligarchs dominated the economy in 2006, and 51 percent of the seats in parliament were held by parties they controlled. Reform politicians campaigned against their corruption, and by 2011 the oligarchs’ representation had shrunk to 13 percent. The United States also had corrupt bankers as ready-made culprits but chose to bail them out rather than hold them accountable for the precrisis excesses.

Finally and most important, Ã…slund emphasizes that the restructuring process must be equitable and take the form of a social compact. All societal sectors, government and nongovernment, union and nonunion, must sacrifice to restore vigor to the economy. With regard to Latvia, he writes, “The government prohibited double incomes for senior civil servants . . . and cut salaries of top officials more than of junior public employees, with 35 percent salary cuts for ministers.” Again, the process in the Baltics contrasts sharply with that of countries such as the United States, where government spending has increased since the crisis. In the United States, public union and government employee salaries and benefits have mostly been protected, while the brunt of adjustment has fallen on the nonunion private sector. Ã…slund concludes by noting that these recommendations were mostly followed in the Baltics and disregarded in the southern periphery, with the result that the Baltics are now growing robustly while Europe’s southern periphery is stuck in recession with uncertain prospects.
For those not keeping score: the PIIGS used conventional central bank and central planner approaches.  They raised taxes and followed conventional "economic stimulus" programs, such as loans and top-down commands on wages.  They didn't touch unions and their wages.  The BELLs followed more market based and certainly more conservative approaches: they slashed government spending and let the market sort things out.  Yes, some wages went down (Paul Krugman in the broad brush believes wages are not governed by markets and never go down).  Some folks were undoubtedly hurt or massively inconvenienced.  Yet by 2013, the occasionally fact-based NY Times covered the Latvian turnaround. 
When a credit-fueled economic boom turned to bust in this tiny Baltic nation in 2008, Didzis Krumins, who ran a small architectural company, fired his staff one by one and then shut down the business. He watched in dismay as Latvia’s misery deepened under a harsh austerity drive that scythed wages, jobs and state financing for schools and hospitals.

But instead of taking to the streets to protest the cuts, Mr. Krumins, whose newborn child, in the meantime, needed major surgery, bought a tractor and began hauling wood to heating plants that needed fuel. Then, as Latvia’s economy began to pull out of its nose-dive, he returned to architecture and today employs 15 people — five more than he had before. “We have a different mentality here,” he said.
Christine Lagarde, Director of the IMF, commented in a speech in Riga, Latvia
While challenges remain today, you have pulled through. You have returned to strong growth and reduced unemployment. . . . You have lowered budget deficits and kept government debt ratios to some of the lowest in the European Union. You have become more competitive in world markets through wage and price cuts. You have restored confidence and brought down interest rates through good macroeconomic policies. We are here today to celebrate your achievements.
By February of 2012, Estonia was recognized as the fastest growing economy in the Eurozone, while Greece was in Year Three (Four?) of its Continuing Crisis
Today, Estonia’s economy is the fastest-growing in the currency bloc, consumers and businesses are paying lower interest rates, and business ties with Finland—a euro member state and Estonia’s main trading partner—are tighter than ever. “Lots of Finnish producers seek cooperation partners here now as things are more transparent for them,” says Ermo Saks, owner of an audiovisual production company in the capital of Tallinn, where costs are still 48 percent lower than in Finland.
Let me post a graph that has been here before in several updates.  It used to come from the Calculated Risk blog - to be honest, I don't know if they still keep it up.  This is from last August ('14) when the recovery was complete (yeah, right).  The X axis (horizontal) is the length of all recessions since WWII, and the Y axis (vertical) is the depth of the recession, measured as percent job losses. 

What I'm showing here is the pattern of short, V-shaped recessions (what Rickards calls the "classic V pattern" above) vs the longer, flatter, sort-of-a-flattened-U shape recession we had in 1990, 2001 and since 2007.  This is the kind of effect we're talking about.  The BELL countries, got over their recessions faster, and got back to growth.  Although this chart shows the US recovery was over by last summer, it's not hard to find evidence that we've never returned to pre-2007 levels of employment.  The US Labor Participation rate is still the lowest it has been since the late 1970s.  People who are out of the labor market don't get counted in the unemployment rate that's used in this chart.  

Taken in overview, the way the BELLs handled the crash of '08 is a lesson not just for Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank, but for Janet Yellen of the Fed and Haruhiko Kuroda of the Bank of Japan.  The central banks could do well to back off from their overriding love of control and let the market work.  Does everything always look perfect under the market?  Of course not.  But it's self-correcting and infinitely faster to find a better solution than doctrinaire bankers who are shown a better way of doing things and then refuse to follow it. 

The central bankers are as intellectually inbred as any group of inbreds that you can imagine: there is no real diversity of thought to be found.  Asked to comment on the lessons of Latvia, on how much better the different policies worked out, economics professor Morten Hansen, head of the economics department at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga refused to think what worked in the BELL countries was a worthwhile experiment, saying:
“The lesson of what Latvia has done is that there is no lesson.”

Just a fluke.  Nothing to see here.  Move along... move along.  

The US Federal Reserve, under Ben Bernanke at the time, swore we would not repeat the mistakes the Bank of Japan made that led to their 20 year recession; in fact, we've repeated every single one.  Some of them more than once. 


Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Now Young Skywalker...You Will Die

(reference) On Sunday, Brock over at Free North Carolina posted an article about a simple and probably unexpected way to die during a grid down situation: spider bite.

Let me just emphasize one more way.  I'm sure everyone has thought about it, or strange as it may sound, thinks they've thought of it.  Infection.  The thing about infections is that they can pop up at any time without any warning or indications, and not just from a cut or other injury.  

The main reason for the quiet here over Sunday/Monday was an abrupt run in with the medical system.  Part was planned, but part was an out of the blue infection unrelated to any injury or other affront I can recall.   Within 12 hours, I was able to start antibiotics.  A quick trip to the local Doc-in-a-Box "urgent care" facility and then a stop at our local Publix for antibiotics, and I'm on the road to recovery.  If the grid had been down when this struck, I might well be dead by now, or pushing my limits.  Instead, Publix gives away two weeks worth of several antibiotics for free.  I assume that's because the cost of the generic forms they dispense are less than the cost of administering payment systems, or possibly they do it to attract business. 

I believe it was back on the old, abandoned Geek with a 45 blog that I read a similar post where he was simply astonished at the widespread availability of antibiotics, compounds that would have saved millions upon millions of lives from pneumonia alone, and he could be cured of pneumonia for a few dollars.  Now add in that many of them are free and compound that wonder. 

There are at least three big problems with having antibiotics around as general preparations for times with collapsed or just less-than-optimum health systems.  The first is that they're not just something you take they're specific; certain antibiotics only affect certain bacteria, so that you just don't need AN antibiotic, you need THE antibiotic for the infection you have; taking the wrong one could cause damage.  Needing several types of antibiotics means lots of storage.  The second problem is partly based on that issue; they are typically available by prescription only (although most folks already know the system hack for that).  The third big problem is that you shouldn't just give someone a bottle of something and think you're done.  They really do require knowledge on a caregiver's part.  

Something everybody who thinks they'll be administering first aid in shaky times should know is not just which antibiotics to try first for which conditions, but when not to administer them, and what to do if they don't work or the patient gets sicker (from the illness or from reaction to the drug).  I'm certainly not the guy to teach such a class, but I'd sure like to take it.  I know there are people in our community who could put on such a program, so it may be available and I'm just not aware of it.  Patriot Nurse on YouTube comes to mind, as does Dive Medic. 

My bottom line here is that there are lots and lots of ways to die when civilization goes fully dysfunctional.  Spider bites, snake bites, tick bites and other critters can get you.  Or you could wake up with an infection out of nowhere.  It often seems to me that people talk about something major like an EMP happening and over a hundred million people dying, yet the implication is that they're somehow not among those who do.  This hasn't even touched the many ways of dying that don't have anything to do with infection at all.  
(probably a stock photo of a hand model pouring out pills - from)


Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Techy Tuesday - NASA Still Sometimes Dreams Big

They just can't execute their dreams because of their insane leadership's priorities (I'm thinking Muslim outreach).  Still, for coolness factor, this autonomous robotic submarine to explore Saturn's moon Titan is tough to beat.  While this is entirely dreams and conceptual studies now, the program is one NASA just chose for an additional round of funding to study in more detail as part of their Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) program
Titan is unique in the outer solar system in that it is the only one of the bodies outside the Earth with liquid lakes and seas on its surface. The Titanian seas, however, are not composed of water, like Earth’s seas, but are seas of liquid hydrocarbons. What lies beneath the surface of Titan’s seas? We propose to develop a conceptual design of a submersible autonomous vehicle (submarine) to explore extraterrestrial seas. Specifically, to send a submarine to Titan’s largest northern sea, Kraken Mare. This craft will autonomously carry out detailed scientific investigations under the surface of Kraken Mare, providing unprecedented knowledge of an extraterrestrial sea and expanding NASA’s existing capabilities in planetary exploration to include in situ nautical operations. Sprawling over some 1000 km, with depths estimated at 300 m, Kraken Mare is comparable in size to the Great Lakes and represents an opportunity for an unprecedented planetary exploration mission. This mission would be a logical follow-on to a Titan surface mission such as TiME (Titan Mare Explorer) or even a component of a flagship mission of multiple vehicles. The mission concept we propose to study will investigate a full spectrum of oceanographic phenomena: chemical composition of the liquid, surface and subsurface currents, mixing and layering in the “water” column, tides, wind and waves, bathymetry, and bottom features and composition. Measurements of all these aspects of Titan’s hydrocarbon ocean environment can only be made through focused in situ exploration with a well-instrumented craft.
The concept is for a robotic submarine that will be about the size of a car.
Somewhat similar to an Earth-based submarine, the cylindrical vessel about the length of a car would plunge through the thick atmosphere of Titan and dive into its largest liquid hydrocarbon sea, Kraken Mare. Here, it would explore the subsurface region for 90 days, sending data and images back to Earth. It would travel at a rather sedate one meter per second (2.2 miles per hour) using four propellers at its back, enabling it to cover a planned route of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles). Instruments on board would include sonar, a sampling system and a camera to answer questions such as whether there could be life on Titan, which is up for debate.
There are many technical challenges to overcome in such a mission, beyond simply getting a vehicle that size all the way to Saturn and delivering it to Kraken Mare.  To begin with, as it says, they're looking to design a submarine to move in liquids, but they don't know what's in the Kraken sea.  Is it all liquid methane?  On top of that, it's very, very cold out at Titan.  These hydrocarbon seas are -180°C (-300°F).  Is it colder at depth?  Do parts of the sea freeze out slightly below the surface and make the entire mission impossible?   In their diagram, it mentions insulation, but not heating.  While it's true silicon electronics often works better cold than at room temperature, that's at -55C vs +25C. I'm not aware of any class of electronic components that are specified to operate at -180C. 

 
(Proposed vehicle)
I see problems with the antenna concept (green area in the top illustration).  An antenna of that size will be high gain, but it will be very, very narrow area coverage.  I don't think a vehicle floating in an "ocean" would be stable enough to link back to earth.  I think it would more likely be better to communicate with a local space craft in Titanian orbit and have that one beam back to Earth.

Some of us who worked tangentially around NASA have remarked that NASA's biggest post-Apollo accomplishment has been to get stuff done despite their leadership.  I'd like to live lone enough to see something like this, but I have a hard time thinking it will happen.



Saturday, July 11, 2015

I Got Yer Hyperinflation Right Here!

On more than one occasion (example), I've come down on the side that predicts our economic collapse will be inflation or hyperinflation rather than deflation.  I've also been more circumspect and less sure that I know what's coming.  The Federal Reserve, though, has always seen and still now sees deflation everywhere and that's among the reasons it continues to buy bonds.

Keith Weiner, CEO of Monetary Metals, blogs on Kitco this week that we have, in fact, had terrible inflationary impacts.  The reason the Fed doesn't react to this inflation is baked into their market distortions.  He begins:
In hyperinflation, the purchasing power of the currency collapses. Before the onset, suppose one collapsar buys ten loaves of bread. Soon, it buys only one loaf. Shortly thereafter, it buys only one slice. Next, it can only purchase a saltine cracker. Pretty soon the collapsar won’t buy any bread at all. Stick a fork in it, it’s done.

Many critics of the Federal Reserve, the European Central bank, and others have predicted that this end is coming soon. They have been frustrated as prices are clearly not skyrocketing. For example, the price of crude oil was cut almost in half (so far). There’s little to see if one looks at the purchasing power of the dollar, euro, Swiss franc, etc. Purchasing power, as conventionally understood, is doing just fine.
There are real indicators of inflation, such as the smaller package for the same (or higher) price phenomenon, for example, but there are few signs of excessive inflation (although in my mind, the 2% target the Fed uses is too high).  Nobel prize-winning asshole Paul Krugman, while writing about how wonderful the economy is, compares people who predict runaway inflation to “true believers whose faith in a predicted apocalypse persists even after it fails to materialize.”  Think of the Heaven's Gate cult who killed themselves over the coming of comet Hale-Bopp.  If you think we run the risk of inflation, Krugman thinks you're one of them. 

Weiner, though, finds the missing inflation that nobody else finds.
Yield Purchasing Power (YPP) shows how much you can buy, not with a dollar of cash, but with the earnings on a dollar of productive capital. No one wants to spend their life savings or inheritance. People are happy to spend their income, but not their savings.

To come back to the analogy of the family farm, people should think in terms of how much food it can grow, not how much food they can buy by selling the farm. The tractor is good for producing food, not to be exchanged for it. Why, then, do people think of the purchasing power of their life savings, in terms of its liquidation value?
An illustration is useful.
I compared two archetypal retirees. Clarence retired with $100,000 in 1979, and Larry retired with $1,000,000 in 2014. Clarence was able to earn 2/3 of the median income in interest on his savings. Larry was nowhere near that. He would need over $100 million to do the same. In 35 years, the YPP of a 3-month CD fell more than 1,000-fold.

The collapse in YPP suggests an analogy to hyperinflation. Look at how much capital you need to support a middle class lifestyle. Measured in dollars, the dollar price of this capital is skyrocketing.

This skyrocketing price of capital has the same effect as hyperinflation: it undermines savings and causes people to eat themselves out of house and home.
This, of course, is due to the Zero Interest Rate Policies of the Fed, exactly what Krugman is praising.   A generation ago, 1979, one could earn a decent retirement income with the interest on savings of $100,000.  Today, it takes 1000 times that, $100 Million to earn that income.  How many of us have $100,000,000 in savings to retire on? 
What does this mean for anyone with less than what they need to support themselves—$100M and rising? They must liquidate their capital, and live by consuming their savings. It’s terrifying to anyone in that position—which means anyone in the middle class.
I've said before that the Fed has crosshairs on the back of every saver, and this is a perfect example of the effects of the ZIRP.  The market distortions of the zero interest rates are ripping apart savers, small businesses, and many other groups.  What would help savers, retirees and those planning to retire is for interest rates to go back up to their historical levels.  That would hammer the rest of the economy as the percentage of the Federal Budget needed to pay interest on the debt would increase, and have to come from somewhere.




Friday, July 10, 2015

Among the Best Financial Pieces I've Ever Read

Last weekend, the Bonner & Partners newsletter I get every day was particularly good.   Instead of notes from Bill Bonner, they gave the platform to financial writer and podcaster James Altucher.  Altucher is an unusual thinker and because of that has been interviewed by Glenn Beck, Tim Ferris and others.  He has been a multi millionaire a couple of times and lost it all a couple of times.  He has been a hedge fund manager and author but is probably best known for an article he posted on LinkedIn called 10 Reasons You Have to Quit Your Job in 2014.  The columns are available in 3 parts on the Bonner website and I really think they're worth your time.  Part 1,  Part 2 and Part 3.

Now let me throw out a few quotes that really stood out to me.  As a teaser to encourage you to read the whole thing.

Part 1.  The Ultimate Cheat Sheet for Investing All of Your Money
  • The most important three words in investing are: “I don’t know.” If someone doesn’t say that to you then they are lying.
  • SHOULD I DAY-TRADE? Only if you are also willing to take all of your money, rip it into tiny pieces, make cupcakes with one piece of money inside each cupcake, and then eat all of the cupcakes.
    Then you will get sick, and eat all of your money, but it will taste thrilling along the way. Which is what day-trading is.
  • WELL, WHO MAKES MONEY IN THE MARKET THEN? Three types of people:
    1. People who hold stocks FOREVER. Think: Warren Buffett (has never sold a share of Berkshire Hathaway since 1967) or Bill Gates (he sells shares but for 20 years basically held onto his MSFT stock).
    2. People who hold stocks for a millionth of a second (see Michael Lewis’ book Flash Boys which I highly recommend). This is borderline illegal and I don’t recommend it.
    3. People who cheat.
Part 2. What I Learned About Life After Interviewing 80 Highly Successful People  (Seriously - read this one).
  • A Good Life is Measured in Decades - Too many people want happiness, love, money, connections, everything yesterday.  Me too.  I call it “the disease.” I feel often I can paint over a certain emptiness inside if only… if only… I have X.
    But a good life is like the flame of a bonfire. It builds slowly, and because it’s slow and warm it caresses the heart instead of destroying it.
  • A Good Life is Measured by What You Did Today - This is the opposite of the previous one but the same. You get success in decades by having success now.
    That doesn’t mean money now. It means, “Are you doing your best today?”
Part 3.  The Secrets of Personal Finance
  • The things you need to know.
    The first answer is: nothing. You need to know absolutely nothing about personal finance. Buying a cheap beer versus buying an expensive beer will not help you get rich.
  • First off, don’t bother saving money. You get more money in the bank by making more money. That’s rule No. 1.
    People might think this is flippant. What if they can’t make more money? Well, then, you’re going to run out of money. No personal finance rule will help.
  • Don’t invest in anything that you can’t directly control every aspect of.  In other words… yourself. 
    • 1. You can’t make or save money from a salary. And salaries have been going down versus inflation for 40 years. So don’t count on a salary. You’re 20; please take this advice alone if you take any advice at all. 
    • 2. Investing is a tax on the middle class. There are at least five levels of fees stripped out of your hard-earned cash before your money touches an investment.
Don't miss the list of the 15 life skills needed to make more money.  As he says, these are never learned in college.

James Altucher (source)

Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Peering Out of the Bunker of Doom

I'm cautiously peering out of the Bunker of Doom, wishing the AR in my hands was a BAR.  Nobody rioting.  Nobody with ruck sack and a rifle slung over their shoulder.  No MRAPs.  Just a normal summer evening.

China's markets lost again today.  They're down over 32% from the peak of the bubble.  Bayou Renaissance Man points out that they're on the virtually the same slope as the US crash of 1929.   Estimates are that the total amount of wealth that has vanished in China totals $3.2 Trillion, which is approximately the GDP of the UK. 

It's spreading.  The commodities China has been buying - to fund its mal-invested State Run Enterprises that do things like build cities with no inhabitants - are now sitting.  Peter points out that iron ore is down 10%.  Copper is down 15% in the last 60 days.  Chinese steel is cheaper than cabbage.  Silver is at five year lows.

The market shutdown on the NYSE was unsettling.  Zerohedge has the post mortem,
What began as a glitch in pre-market trading turned into the NYSE's longest trading halt since Hurrican Sandy battered the East Coast. The ever-increasing complexity of US equity markets combined with an ever-decreasing pool of greater fools leaves windows open on down days (for it appears these 'glitches' only ever occur on down days) for markets to break. While NYSE traders defended the very market structure they have abhorred in the past as evidence that today was "not a failure," we can't help but find CNBC's Scott Wapner's amusing remark that "if retail investors want low cost liquid trading they are going to have learn to live with it" the perfect post-mortem for a rigged system brimming with confident insiders ever excited to take mom-and-pop's money.
ZH also speculated that we could be seeing what cyberwar looks like:
After a series of cyber failures involving first UAL, then this website, then the NYSE which is still halted, then the WSJ, some have suggested that this could be a concerted cyber attack (perhaps by retaliatory China unhappy its stocks are plunging) focusing on the US. So we decided to look at a real-time cyber attack map courtesy of Norsecorp which provides real time visibility into global cyber attacks.

What clearly stands out is that for some reason Chinese DDOS attacks/hackers seem to be focusing on St. Louis this morning.
Mrs. Graybeard finds links that St. Louis is actually a headquarters of the folks who research hacking attacks, and they put out honeypots to catch them.  Naturally, that will make it look like they're concentrating on St. Louis.  I mean, the NYSE really isn't even in New York anymore, not all of it.  But St. Louis?  Unless their going after Anheuser Busch...

So reassured the Zombies haven't started shuffling, and feeling simultaneously relieved yet somehow slightly depressed that it looks like I go to work tomorrow, I flip the happy switch to SAFE, drop the magazine and eject the round from the chamber. But I'll be watching the markets a bit more closely tomorrow.


Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Techy Tuesday - Using Superconductors to Improve Cancer Radiation Therapy

Anyone who has had cancer or even just been close to someone who has had it knows the phrase, "slash, poison, burn"; the standard treatment for cancer.  Just saying surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation is an oversimplification.  Surgery to remove the tumors is usually first, although I've met people who got poisoned first - chemotherapy to shrink the tumors.  Radiation therapy is last in this order, and frequently is last, but it's sometimes the only treatment.  Radiation therapy consists of using high energy subatomic particles; literally exposing the patient to intense blasts of radiation.  As in all cancer treatment, the goal is to kill the cancer without killing the patient.

While there are different ways to apply radiation, in external beam therapy, patients are literally placed at the cross hairs of particle accelerator to slam high energy particles into their bodies.  I'd say "into the tumor", but if the surgery was successful, there's no tumor left. The particle beam is slamming into tissue to wipe out a few bad cells that may have slipped past the scalpel into the body, and not been poisoned by the chemotherapy.
(XKCD 933)

Last week, Design News wrote about an innovation in creating these "flesh-searing relativistic particle cannons" from MIT.
For many different types of cancers among patients in various age groups, proton beam radiotherapy treatment (PBRT) is a desirable alternative to other types of radiation therapy. In PBRT, synchrocyclotrons, cyclotrons, isochronous cyclotrons, synchrotrons, and other proton accelerators release high-energy proton beams to radiate cancerous tumors. A proton beam can be directly aimed at a tumor, sparing healthy surrounding tissue from radiation.

With only 14 clinics in the U.S., PBRT is not available to all who qualify. For more than 10 years, scientists at MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) have been researching new synchrocyclotron designs to lower PBRT-machine costs in cancer-treating clinics around the world.

In 2008, a team at MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center designed a lightweight and compact synchrocyclotron by replacing the copper electromagnetic coils with superconducting varieties. Superconductive coils are cooled to low temperatures in order to reduce the resistivity of the material. They allow for smaller coils with less turns to generate higher magnetic fields, and can decrease the overall weight of an accelerator.

The new design could be placed directly on the gantry head that directs the proton beam at tumors. MIT’s synchrocyclotron gantry design replaces the old setup—the synchrocyclotron’s large size typically requires a separate room from the gantry and patient.
The article claims many improvements for the new PBRT machines over the old design, including a cleaner, more patient friendly layout.  ProNova Solutions is the company commercializing this treatment.  High temperatures superconductors have been around since the late 80s, but don't have much role in the world outside the physics lab.  I'm aware of some superconducting electronics sold for use in cellular base stations (paper here - pdf warning) and that puzzled me.  The infrastructure to pump liquid nitrogen over these systems must be a big cost, but it was explained that the rent paid for cellular installations on buildings like the Sears Tower or Empire State goes into the millions of dollars per square foot. 
(Source)
It's a cool design and interesting to see superconductor technology in medicine... but it's still to create a machine to shoot you with high energy particles out of a "flesh-searing relativistic particle cannons".  It's still a pretty awful thing to do to a person.  I keep hearing that genomics is going to radically change cancer therapy.  Obsoleting this sort of treatment would be wonderful.    



Monday, July 6, 2015

A Quick Hat Tip to Ex-CNN Anchor Lynne Russell

By now, you've probably heard of the robbery with shooting that involved former CNN anchor Lynne Russell and her husband Chuck de Caro.  Both of them are concealed carry permit holders and have spent time in training; de Caro is former Army Special Forces and Russell is credited with being a private investigator and Sheriff's deputy.  They were spending the night in a Motel 6 in an Albuquerque New Mexico last Tuesday, when Lynne went to go get something from their car.  Instead, she was attacked and pushed back into the room by an assailant.  A fight ensued between de Caro and the attacker, and exchange of gunfire.  de Caro was shot three times, but killed the assailant on the spot.
The robber pushed his way into the hotel room and pointed a gun at Russell and de Caro just as de Caro stepped out of the shower.

While the robber was distracted by de Caro, Russell slipped the couple’s concealed weapons into her purse, and then handed it to de Caro, asking if he could find something of value to give to the robber.

“‘Is there anything in here we can give him?'” Russell said she asked. “Chuck said, ‘Oh, yes, there is.'”

Russell said the man took de Caro’s briefcase over to the bed of the motel room and began firing at her husband.

“Chuck fired back, and it was a shootout,” she said. “He expended the rounds from one small handgun and grabbed for the other even as he had taken fire” and was losing blood quickly.
I'm sure we can all agree this is a horrible enough thing to go through, but it appears that during some interviews after the fact, some of the interviewers have been less than supportive of her carrying a gun that saved her life.  She had a very proper response for them.
“The discussion over the debate to own a gun is just ridiculous. As Americans we have the right to bear arms and as humans the right to protect ourselves. I’m sure that the man who shot my husband did not have a gun permit. Criminals will always have guns. The rest of us legally obtain our gun permits.”
...
“If you don’t want to carry please don’t. Then, shut the f–k up about it.”  [emphasis added - SiG]
Fox News reports that de Caro is still hospitalized, and recovering from his three gunshot wounds.  They said his breathing tube is out and he's doing well.  It's great that he was a more accurate shot than the bad guy, but it's still a heavy burden to bear.  Hats off to Chuck de Caro for his composure under pressure and to Lynne Russell for her support.


Sunday, July 5, 2015

We Are the Counter Culture

I'm going to riff on a couple of ideas I mentioned in passing way back in 2010.  Take yourself back in time to the summer of 1969 - if you're old enough.  Consider this in the light of the last few years two historical events from that summer.  I'm talking about the Apollo 11, the first moon landing, and then the Woodstock music festival which was about 3 weeks later in mid-August.
The first was a tribute to hard working men and women: engineers, technicians, assemblers, and tens of thousands of hard working people who undertook a task that many viewed as impossible.  "To land a man on the moon and return him safely to earth by the end of this decade".  It was hard work, it was risky work.  Men died: outstanding men you'd be proud to have known or worked with.  It was a triumph of intellect, done with slide rules and calculators that your Smart Phone out powers by a factor of thousands.  Even today, it is thought of as being so hard to do that about 5% of the US population thinks we never did it.
These men weren't perfect; nobody ever is.  They worked hard, and in some cases played just as hard.  When it was the weekend, the workers on Kennedy Space Center, in Houston's Manned Spaceflight Center, and on the campuses of the many subcontractors by and large came home to their families and lived the suburban life of the dominant American culture.  Think weekend barbecues, Sunday drives, backyard swimming pools and dozens of other ideas that have come to be associated with the 50s and 60s.  Certainly Sunday included church for many of them. A song in the early '60s, Little Boxes, mocked that culture; mocked the idea of suburban tract houses.  It was a popular idea to attack; the Monkees did the same in "Pleasant Valley Sunday" within five years.  This was the dominant culture of the time, so the counterculture attacked it.   
The second was a bunch of kids having sex in the mud while drugged out of their minds, listening to singers and musicians drugged out of their minds.

The first group was dedicated to doing things others can barely only imagine - bending the universe to their will through sheer intellect and power.  They are "can do" people. 

The second group was dedicated to rubbing body parts against each other with no effort of will and no character.  Their entire focus in life is their genitals.   

The second group is now in charge of the country.
There's no denying that the counterculture of the 1960s is now the dominant culture in our country.  The examples are everywhere: the sexualization of even young children is widespread; the increasing sexualization of the content of movies and other entertainment is obvious to anyone who compares songs or movies from that period with now; the hookup culture is straight out of Woodstock; it is simply everywhere.  In the summer of 1969, TV family sitcoms like My Three Sons had functional fathers.  Today, if there is a father at all, he's shown as a bumbling moron always being educated by his children or wife.  Nowhere is this more apparent than in commercials, where men are always morons. 

One the worst effects of an incessant stream of labor and other regulations is a constant reduction in the number of people working a steady full-time job, and while the progress of technology has enabled more and higher quality home entertainment options for the dwindling incomes, there are fewer homes living in the older culture.  

Today, those of us who live a quiet life trying to work honestly and diligently at a career, provide for our families, spend time in quiet reverence and just keep plugging are the minority.  Those of us who want to be left alone, free to choose our way of living, our way of working, our way of worshiping and our way of earning, are in the minority.  If you object to having sexuality thrown in your face every time you venture outside, you're in the minority.  If you object to the perpetually intrusive government requiring more and more of you for no benefit to you, you're in the minority. 

In half a century, the country has turned upside down.  Counterculture and mainstream have switched completely.  Of course, I suggest we take it back, but the only way I know to do that is by being a good example.  And that won't work if nobody is watching you.

But I can't talk about this subject without showing this video of Joe Cocker from Woodstock, which always makes me laugh.

I can laugh at it, but I don't want Joe or his peeps telling me how to live.

Saturday, July 4, 2015

Happy Independence Day

I'm pleased to see that there's a move to not just call today the 4th of July, but to use the proper name.  Let's remember what it really was - the day we declared our independence of tyranny.



IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776

The Unanimous Declaration of the Thirteen United States of America


When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation in the legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved representative houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the legislative powers, incapable of annihilation, have returned to the people at large for their exercise; the state remaining in the meantime exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavored to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the laws for naturalization of foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migration hither, and raising the conditions of new appropriations of lands.

He has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing judiciary powers.

He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislature.

He has affected to render the military independent of and superior to civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation:

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states:

For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing taxes on us without our consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of trial by jury:

For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses:

For abolishing the free system of English laws in a neighboring province, establishing therein an arbitrary government, and enlarging its boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule in these colonies:

For taking away our charters, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments:

For suspending our own legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burned our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow citizens taken captive on the high seas to bear arms against their country, to become the executioners of their friends and brethren, or to fall themselves by their hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian savages, whose known rule of warfare, is undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these oppressions we have petitioned for redress in the most humble terms: our repeated petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have we been wanting in attention to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, enemies in war, in peace friends.

We, therefore, the representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by the authority of the good people of these colonies, solemnly publish and declare, that these united colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent states; that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the state of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as free and independent states, they have full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent states may of right do. And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I would have highlighted portions that I think are particularly apt today, but the whole thing would be highlighted.

Enjoy your day.  To those who serve - and have served - to provide this gift of liberty for us:  Thank You from the bottom of my heart.

Friday, July 3, 2015

Holiday Weekend

As usual, I didn't get as much done today as I would have liked but that's pretty much always the way it goes.  Today was our 4th of July holiday at Major Avionics Corporation and we spent the day goofing off.  The only real project was to figure out how to smoke a few pounds of chicken wings and shrimp. 
We'll have to go easier on the cayenne next time, but otherwise everything was great.   They don't spend much time in the smoker, only an hour and a half, so it's a milder flavor.  In addition, I used fruit woods (apple and cherry) both of which give a milder flavor.  Still came out really good and made it too easy to eat too much. 

Got the summer slows.  Need to throw a few rounds downrange, and do a little fishing.  Saltwater fishing is slow this time of year, pretty much first light until about 9, really slow through the heat of the day, and then back around sunset.  Some of it is best after dark.

I think the craziest thing I've ever done on the 4th of July was century bike ride (100 miles).  I recall stopping at some convenience store and rubbing ice up and down my arms.  Too hot to spend the whole day outside this time of year.


Git 'er Dun!

Chris Muir over at Day By Day is doing is his annual fundraiser, but it has gone overtime from the expected June 1 to June 30.   Only a few bucks more are needed, so if you enjoy the cartoon, just go drop a sheckel or three.  If you're into cartoons of beautiful nekkid wimmins (as they said when I was growing up), he'll send you a few.  Yes, I gave my annual contribution, too.  Been doing it as long as I've had this blog, I think.   

Chris is the nearest to real time on the response to events of anyone except for professional editorial cartoonists, and has a good cast of characters.

Speaking of the editorial cartoonists, this is good example:
Chip Bok at Townhall and Bokbluster.com.


Thursday, July 2, 2015

Shaky Economies From East to West

Greece shook the US markets this Tuesday.  For a day, anyway, after which they seem to have shaken it back off.  In my mind, the 300 point drop can hard be called a "correction" (<2%), so the smallness of the drop is interesting.  I suppose they were worrying that the zombie apocalypse was going to start the next day and when it didn't they went back to - SQUIRREL!!! - their normal mode, which is that as long as Janet keeps sticking money in their pockets, they'll keep cranking up the market.  Even with that, the DJIA closed well under 18,000  (17,730 today) which is down from the first of the year. 

But don't think of Greece as an isolated case of a really badly run economy.  In fact, Greece is the rule, not the exception.  According to Credit Suisse, Greece has total debt – including households, businesses, and government – equal to 353% of GDP.   But U.S. debt is even higher at 370%.  Germany, that supposed paragon of the European Unions highest financial virtue, has 302%. China, with its state-controlled economy, is at 250%.  Did you notice that China's Shanghai stock market is down over 20% in the last 30 days?  The Shenzhen stock market has dropped over 30% as well. 

On the other hand,  a debt to GDP ratio of either Greece's 353% or our 370% is great compared to Britain. It has total debt equal to 546% of GDP.   Japan is in an even worse state. Its total-debt-to-GDP is 646%.  And if the Credit Suisse numbers are correct, Ireland is off the charts with total debt equal to more than 1,000 times GDP.

Will there be a "Grexit" after all of this plays out?  I don't know.  It seems most Greeks want to stay in EU and prefer the Euro over their old currency, the Drachma.  I've read the same about the other countries; notably Ireland, Italy, and Spain, all of them larger economies than Greece.  It's said that the European Union is more a political union than an economic one, and people want to stay in the EU for those reasons. 

But the takeaway is that these problems are not unique to Greece or the EU.  The entire world is awash in debt, addicted to the transient high of growth being pulled in from the future and accelerated.  Greece is the focal point this week, but it will be somewhere else soon enough.  It can be anywhere.  At some point, the money creation will stop and interest rates will have to go up.  The sense of today's jobs reports is that the often talked-about September rate hike is less likely than it had been.  Interest rates simply have to go up at some point.  That storm will unavoidably rage.  


Wednesday, July 1, 2015

One Step Closer to Holodecks

A persistent idea in SciFi movies is holograms as either 3D videos that can be projected into thin air or tangible objects you can touch and interact with.  It's a disappointment for almost everyone when they learn that the hologram can't be seen unless it's projected onto something like smoke or wispy cloth.  Similarly, the laser beams in movies that can be seen from any angle as colored streaks across the screen are only visible in that kind of smoke or fog. 

Released to the world on June 22, we get news of a breakthrough that gives us a little bit of both.
Released by The Digital Nature Group at Japan’s University of Tsukuba, this video shows a technique they've developed that not only projects an image in thin air, you can interact with it and touch it.  Furthermore, their system can sense your touch and change in response.  While it's very, very far from a solid image you could touch like they used to portray in Star Trek Holodeck scenes, something like the displays that Tom Cruise's character manipulates in Minority Report just got a step closer.  Suddenly they seem like something that could be 10 years away.  The displays in this video are quite small, so they'll need to be made bigger, but that doesn't seem hard just looking at their approach.

So what's different in this breakthrough? They are using very short laser pulses, measured in femtoseconds (fs).  In some experiments the pulses were 269 fs, in others 30-100fs.  (1 fs is 10^-15 second)  The laser pulses essentially ignite the air turning it into plasma and the plasma is illuminated by the laser.  The plasma takes the place of the smoke, water vapor or other media currently used.  Plasma is hot but the combination of tiny amounts of energy, less than 50 micro joules, and those short pulses results in a plasma you can touch without being burned. 

The future is looking like a neat place.