Tuesday, August 2, 2011

A Summer Hobby - Watching Hebert's Box

Every year as hurricane season progresses, many Floridians find ourselves spending spare moments at work and home looking at whatever happens to be brewing out there.  I pay attention to whether or not the storm passes through Hebert's box.  There are two different boxes, first noted by Paul Hebert (French - so it's pronounced AY-bear)
...who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.
This is a correlation, not an absolute guarantee, but there's a good chance that any storm that hits here will go through one of those boxes.  The western box, near the Yucatan channel is less of a concern to me, because storms that go through that path tend to hit Florida's west coast, which weakens them and makes them less of a concern going overhead. 

Don't look now, but Emily has traversed the eastern box, and the 5 day track has her possibly messing up our weekend.  The morning track was closer to land, and it seems that as the 5 days go by, these tracks always move to the right.  So we'll see...


  1. Good luck, SG. That was another reason we sold the sailboat. Dodging hurricanes is possible, but guessing wrong had unpleasant consequences. Living though 70+mph squalls for 15-30 minutes is one thing. Dealing with even higher winds for several days - even in a good hurricane hole - is a whole different ballgame.

  2. Guess I have to watch the western box as I live in Tampa....Thanks, didn't know anything about these.


  3. "(French - so it's pronounced AY-bear)"

    That's not how they pronounced it while he was passing for the Falcons. ;)

  4. Tam - you got me on that one. I only remembered him playing for the Saints. Had to look it up.