Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Keeping Score

One of the things you might have noticed if you come around here often is that I do tend to grade my predictions.  It always frosted me that we'd see pundits on the news opinion shows giving all sorts of predictions but never seeming to suffer any consequences for being wrong.  (Of course as chief cook and bottle washer sole proprietor of this blog, nothing's going to happen if I'm wrong, either.  Unless I fire myself.)

So what?  Early in the month, I noted several things coming in September that had the potential for creating cascade failure of the economatrix.  While the economic risk isn't over, September is, so I thought I'd take a look at these.  It may help to have another tab open in your browser to read it - I'm not going to copy everything here. 
  • September 13th is Eyul 29 of the Hebrew calendar, the end of the Sabbath year, the Shemitah: the day came and went with no major stock market crash, as occurred the last two Shemitah years.  The market certainly hasn't recovered its August losses, and it appears to be adapting to somewhere around where it is now as the new normal.  16,000 has proven to be a good support floor to the DJIA in that it has only been breached for a couple of days, and that was about six weeks ago.  Call this a loss.  
  • September 15th prediction centered around a resolution to declare a palestinian state.  The resolution appears to never have been put to a vote, according to my searches.  As close as they got was a resolution to raise their flag - some distance away from the regular member states' flags.  Another loss.
  • September 25th to September 27th – centered on the push to launch a brand new sustainable development agenda for the entire planet, Agenda 2030.  This one was a win as the U.S. and the 192 other U.N. members unanimously adopted the “2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,” a plan to “end poverty, fight inequality and injustice, and tackle climate change by 2030.”  Agenda 2030 really is "Agenda 21 on steroids" and has the potential to be really awful.  I should do a piece on this soon, but it can potentially eliminate all national sovereignty, create the "New World Order"/One World Government that has been both hoped for and warned against basically forever.  UN bureaucrats can potentially tell you just about everything about where you can live, how you can live, how you can educate your family, what kind of food can be grown: everything.
  • September 28th is the last of the four "blood moons" in the current tetrad of lunar eclipses. That it was.  To the best of my knowledge, no apocalyptic events accompanied this one either.  Another loss.  
So it was a good month, in terms of nothing really bad happening.  I only got 1 of 4 right, as far as I can tell tonight.  On the one hand; it's good to be wrong about these things.  On the other hand, .250 is an OK batting average, but 1 for 4 as a passing completion number will get a quarterback fired in the NFL.  In real life, if I'm only right 25% of the time at work, well, would you want to fly on a plane with critical systems that are only designed 25% correctly?  Should I fire myself?
A friend who retired a few years ago took this photo of this Sunday's eclipse from his home in New Mexico.  Out of respect to him, I won't publish his name, but it's a vividly beautiful picture.   From my yard it was an orange-red smudge in the clouds. 

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