Why? The polls consistently show independents are breaking very strongly for Romney, and the independents are what the whole election is about. Rs and Ds are expected to vote for their guy around 90% of the time, it's the swing state independents that will decide this - as they always seem to. Buried in a CNN poll that says the two are tied 49-49, it says
But a figure buried in the report shows Romney leading Obama among likely independent voters, 54 percent to 40 percent.It's not just there:
A poll conducted two weeks ago by Democracy Corps showed Romney with a 15-point lead among independents, 53 percent to 38 percent.How do they keep coming to the conclusion the results are split evenly? By oversampling Democrats over Republicans. Throughout this cycle, the major polling organizations have sampled with the same turnout as the 2008 election. The problem is that 2008 was a record turnout for Democrats and a lot of Republicans sat it out. Why would they think every election will be the same?
Let's say you went to your favorite lake and caught the elusive world record bass. Or you went to your favorite place to hunt and shot the world's biggest elk or caribou. Would you think that from now on they'll all be that size? That's what they're doing.
The truth is that the pollsters have been really awful at judging elections recently - especially those involving Tea Party favorites. Take Ted Cruz from Texas. In his runoff election, against a very entrenched, very establishment Republican, he won by over 13%.
Remember the Chick-Fil-A day? When someone said, "hey, let's do a day where everyone buys Chick-Fil-A to support free speech" and the country turned out in insane record numbers. People waited in line hours for the chance to spend money there. Some stores ran out of food. I see parallels in the crowds between Chick-Fil-A and Romney's voters.
Piling all of this together, factor in the apparent enthusiasm gap (a concert for Obama featuring Stevie Wonder drew only 200, while Romney shows up at the Dubuque, Iowa, airport and drew 2000) the return of the "broken glass Republicans" and I just don't see this as being as close as they say.
It could be that everything I think I know is wrong, too. Hopefully, we'll know by Wednesday morning. The last thing I want to see is a repeat of Florida 2000, or worse. We don't need the Stewart Smalley effect.