Thursday, April 11, 2013

On Background Checks, The New Mantra

John Lott writes the definitive piece on Fact vs. Fiction on  Background Checks and the Gun Control Debate.  A couple of Fun Facts should you be debating an anti-gun type:
Furthermore, there is no real scientific evidence among criminologists and economists that background checks actually reduce crime. In fact, a 2004 National Academy of Sciences panel concluded that the Brady background checks didn't reduce any type of violent crime. Nor have other later studies found a beneficial effect.
...
The number of criminals stopped by the checks is also quite small. In 2010, there were over 76,000 initial denials, but only 44 of those were deemed worthy for prosecution and only 13 individuals were convicted.(pdf here) Even those 13 cases don’t tend to be the “dangerous” criminals Obama claims are being stopped.
The 76,000+ denials were out of 14,320,489 NICS checks in 2010 (source) represents 1/2% being denied, and the 44 prosecuted is statistical noise.  People who know they will fail a background check don't usually apply for one.  Criminals get their guns from other criminals, not FFLs.  I know: "well, duh!!"

Lott starts with the famous "40% of gun sales take place without a background check" claim Obama and others make.  This is a misleading number for several reason, the biggest being the study was done before the Brady bill required background checks.  The 40% includes all transfers, including non-sales between family members. And besides, even with those two important facts, he rounds up the study's 36% to 40%.
Counting only guns that were sold gives a very different perspective, with only 14 percent not actually going through federally licensed dealers. But even that is much too high as there were biases in the survey. For example, two-thirds of federally licensed dealers at the time were so-called “kitchen table” dealers who sold gun out of their homes and most buyers surveyed were likely unaware these individuals were indeed licensed.
Go read; it's not long.
FBI data at FiscalTimes



4 comments:

Anonymous said...

This IS NOT about safety ,or guns, or crime, OR mass murder. It is about control, It is about Kingship-The advent of a system in witch we are property, to be used and discarded as our "masters" see fit. Based solely on a whim. No argument that we can make will be herd ,or listened too. If this can be done "peacefully" it will be, until the day our "masters" decide to "dispose" of "useless eaters". If not then "they" will use whatever violence "they" need to. At this point they will do ANYTHING they need to advance the plan.

Underground Carpenter said...

Whether or not gun pre-confiscation, I mean registration, "works" to reduce "gun violence" is just arguing over opinions.

"No way!"

"Way!"

"No way!"

So pointless. But every slave on the American Plantation must have a vote. Who the hell cares? We are still slaves.

The principle at the bottom is whether or not you think your fellow humans are capable to manage their own affairs. Judge for yourself what "those in power" think of your capabilities in that respect, and wonder at why so few of us slaves are bothered by this arrogance.

Dave

Graybeard said...

Well, my point isn't that we can convince our ruling class. My point, and I said it really badly, is that we might convince our friends and neighbors that our arguments are right.

Congress critters are nothing if not self-serving, self-glorifying pigs, right? As it stands now, until they declare unrestricted dictatorship they need to get re-elected. They watch polls and count votes closer than a pair of four-year olds watches which one got the bigger cookie. The more people we can sway to our side the better - and that especially includes the idiot gun owners who go along with this crap.

1911A1 said...

great article. Linked on FB.