Monday, February 22, 2016

Serial Establishment Failures and The Anti-Establishment Candidates

John Robb at Global Guerrillas takes a break from his fascinating fare of bot net wars and analyzes why Donald J. Trump keeps winning.  It's an interesting piece, if politics from the 30,000 foot level interests you.  (To my new readers, I've said many times that day to day politics disgusts me, but when viewed from a distance it has some interest.  Day to day politics is more like cleaning out the cats' litter box: it's a nasty, disgusting job, but if you don't do it, it only gets more nasty and disgusting.)

Robb, in turn, quotes Bill Lind in The American Conservative on "Failure as a Way of Life".   In itself, that's worth reading.  Lind opens with a sentiment that I think is common knowledge out here in flyover country but seems to just be sinking in to the political classes:
"The fault line in American politics is no longer Republican vs. Democrat nor conservative vs. liberal but establishment vs. anti-establishment. This is an inevitable result of serial failure in establishment policies."
He goes on to present case after case that establishment politicians don't care about failure.  If they promote the F-35, for example, it doesn't matter that it's a bad fighter.  All that matters is that it brings favors to them and jobs for their district.  The F-35 is a horrible fighter, but they'll never have to fly it. So long as the money keeps flowing, all is well.  His trenchant observation is:
[The establishment] is composed overwhelmingly of people who want to be something, not people who want to do something. They have devoted their lives to becoming members of the establishment and enjoying the many privileges thereof. They are not likely to endanger club membership by breaking its rules.  - [emphasis added - SiG]
Returning to John Robb, he then flows this observation into a good overview of this year's election:
"From the start, Trump targeted the (mostly) white working class, which happens to be 40 percent of the country. And he’s done it not just with issues, but with how he talks — the ball-busting, the “bragging,” the over-the-top promises...

But it speaks volumes — whole encyclopedias — about the ignorance of our political and media elites that they’re only now realizing that much of what Trump’s been doing is just busting balls.  It’s a blue-collar ritual, with clear rules — overtly insulting, sure, but with infinite subtleties. It can be a test of manliness, a sign of respect, a way of bonding and much more.

America hasn’t been great for the working class for decades — which is why “Make America Great Again” is a great slogan for a guy who’s talking tough on the problems that blue-collar Americans (and more than a few middle-class folks) see as killing them."... from Donald Trump has Invented a New Way to Win Mark Cunningham
Clearly, Trump has tapped into something: the anti-establishment sentiment that's rampant in the country today.  In a poll a few months ago, 62% of self-declared Republican voters said they felt betrayed by the folks they elected into the establishment (not realizing these people were running to be someone, not do something).  It's not a one-off result.  After Saturday's South Carolina vote, 53% said they felt betrayed, and after New Hampshire, 50% said they felt betrayed.  The party can try to say it's nothing, but betrayal is an enormously strong feeling and strong motivator.  Simply: betrayal cuts very deeply and people who feel betrayed might well go to armed revolution. 

I believe this is why Ted Cruz as adopted the slogan TrusTed - printed in two colors to emphasize his name.  He's loudly declaring, "you can trust me not to betray you".  And that's the reason why Trump's campaign has attacked Ted as being dishonest.  They know that trust is extremely important to Ted Cruz' supporters and if they can break that image of trustworthiness, they can ruin Cruz' chances.  And that's why I think it was mandatory for Ted to fire his campaign communications manager after a bad tweet.  When you're being hammered over honesty, you have to look aggressive when a wrong statement is made.  

More than others, and perhaps because of his role as media "star", Trump seems to understand the whole social media world and the impact of the internet and it's "TL:DR", nanosecond attention spans.  Anything that happened a few days ago scrolled off the top of the screen and winked out of existence.  His bombast, the bragging, the conspiracies--it's quintessential Internet. 
So he pops off and then lets it go--which his supporters fundamentally understand.   When opponents and media pull up a tweet from 2012, literally no one gives two shits and it only ends up reflecting (poorly) on the person pulling up the tweet.
What Robb doesn't talk about is the dark side of Trump's supporters.  I can't and won't blame their behavior on Trump, but there were reports out of South Carolina of Trump supporters physically harassing door to door workers for other candidates.  It was reported that women were afraid to go do their campaign work without guys around for security and one guy alleges being run off the road by a Trump worker's truck.  Trump's support has the air of a cult of personality to it, and that's bad. After all, it's how we ended up where we are.  A "right wing" cult of personality taking the place of our current "left wing" cult of personality is no trade I want to make.  



13 comments:

  1. Also keep in mind that just because someone votes for candidate A doesn't mean they're supporting that person, they're just voting against candidate B. I don't like Trump, I think he's a jerk among other things. But given the choice between him and Hillary or Sanders, it's gonna be him. About the only one I'd touch with a ten foot pole is Ben Carson because he seems like he might be a good person which is what this country sorely needs. Does he have a chance of getting Trump's poll numbers? Probably not.

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    1. I think we're in agreement on all of that. Dr. Carson is probably the finest person we've had running for office in quite some time - if not the finest ever. My misgiving with him is his lack of leadership experience. Now, I know he has some and has run some groups before, but I think he's got way too much catching up to do.

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    2. Agreed.

      I think he's a fine human being; intelligent, compassionate, literate, logical, kind and caring.

      And would be a disaster as President......

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    3. I disagree about the lack of leadership experience. He was head of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins and has been on a number of corporate boards. He is really experienced and devoted to gathering knowledgeable advisers that he actually listens to. He's a quick study on issues and situations. I am satisfied that he is already an accomplished leader (try getting a hospital committee/board to act on anything.. that's got to be complex).

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    4. I watched him on Megyn Kelly's show last night, when she spent a half hour each with Dr. Carson, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. Dr. Carson was really impressive, and has come up to speed admirably on all the foreign policy stuff he was criticized for not knowing about a while back.

      Intellectually, he's giant compared to most of them, although it's hard to compare a neurosurgeon to a lawyer. People joke about his laid back attitude, but that's a really good thing to have when you have a child's brain in your hands and something goes epically wrong - and you know it does!

      I'm really reconsidering him. Our primary is a few weeks from now.

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  2. The establishment, on both sides, broke the country. Now I want to break them using Trump as the BFH.

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    1. Well said sir! The political barn needs sweeping at almost every level. Barnhardt Axiom applies.

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  3. The biggest problem is sorting the wheat from the chaff. Given the polarization of the groups involved how do you tell if the guy ran him off the road or not? Pictures maybe? Media reports are always subject to scrutiny, the blogs rely on media reports for a lot of their information, and the blogs themselves are all over the board crazy...rabidly for Trump or rabidly against. One conservative blog the other day was using a screenshot to bash Trump and they took it from another site that was discussing how it had been confirmed to be a fraud. Hell, I'd buy a program to tell the players apart but they keep shuffling members of the crowd into the game and I don't trust the guy that printed it in the first place.

    Bobbookworm

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    1. Absolutely, Bobbookworm. I was a bit hesitant to include those reports, but finally went with it because I heard the guy making the allegations on the radio myself. But you're absolutely right that it's still unconfirmed without other eyewitnesses or confirmation of some sort.

      My point isn't to bash Trump. I thought the analyses that Robb pulled together had that "just sounds right when you hear them" and help explain the phenomena going on. I am concerned about another cult of personality, and I know I'm far from the only person who has noted the presence of those attitudes.

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  4. " this is why Ted Cruz as adopted the slogan TrusTed - printed in two colors to emphasize his name"

    Ah yes - jingo, chant and slogan - well known as a recruiting device for the incurious, lowest common denominator; practiced by every high school cheerleader and carnival barker throughout the land.

    Oughta work, right?

    itor

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    1. AKA Advertising and Sales 101. The same technique is used in selling everything.

      If this is news to you, I ... I just don't know what to say.

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  5. Don't disagree with you on the cult of personality if that what it is...there are some with stars in their eyes, maybe a lot, but I think there is a lot of "Let's beat the GOP with this stick" as well...that betrayal thing. I think a lot of them are just excited that maybe the "outsider" will actually do something. Didn't think that you were Trump bashing and when I read Robb the other day I thought, like you, that his analysis had a ring of truth to it. One thing for sure, this has been a "popcorn in the cheap seats" year in politics.

    Bobbookworm

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  6. Trump is the weapon that former Republican voters are aiming at the cuckservative Republican party that has betrayed them again and again.

    If Trump builds his wall and stops legal and illegal immegration for a while, he might get my vote in 2020 - unless someone comes along who is less Trump and more nationalist.

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