Saturday, June 27, 2015

Is A Major Finanical Collapse Imminent?

Blogger Michael Snyder at ETF Daily News thinks so and posts a pretty sound circumstantial-evidence case that it's going to happen.   Circumstantial evidence is all we ever get, by the way.
Based on information that I have received, things that I have been told, and thousands of hours of research that have gone into the publication of more than 1,300 articles about our ongoing blog, I have come to the conclusion that a major financial collapse is imminent.  Therefore, I am issuing a RED ALERT for the last six months of 2015.

To clarify, when I say “imminent” I do not mean that it will happen within the next 48 hours.  And I am not saying that our problems will be “over” once we get to the end of 2015.  In fact, I believe that the truth is that our problems will only be just beginning as we enter 2016.
For the record, last January, I wrote much the same, so he and I see the same sort of timing.  He says in the second half of the 2015, I narrowed it down to the end of the Federal fiscal year, because most other market crashes happen in within a month either side of October 1.   
The proverbial black swan could fly in at any time in the guise of a really bad attack like the Charlie Hebdo massacre here in the US, or worse.  On the other hand it could sit like this for quite some time.  Given the timing of other market crashes, my bet is on next September or October.
In a list of things that could be the contributing event to collapse, the author points out a few interesting things.  He points out a story I missed in Reuters that the EU has ordered 11 countries so have "bail-in" rules (fancy term for confiscation of your bank account) within two months (making it July 28) or they will face legal action.  Pretty sharp and short deadline.  Are they expecting something?

In the rest of his list, he points out additional ammunition for my September prediction.
  • The 70th session of the UN General Assembly begins on September 15th.  It's being reported that France plans to introduce a resolution which would give formal UN Security Council recognition to a Palestinian state.  Up until now, the United States has always been the one blocking such a resolution, but Barack Obama is indicating that things may be much different this time around.  With the Supreme court ruling this week that Jerusalem is essentially not part of Israel by striking down a ruling that people born in Jerusalem are may claim  Israel as their country of birth, that adds backing to this belief. 
  • September 25th to September 27th – The United Nations is going to launch a brand new sustainable development agenda for the entire planet.  Some have called this “Agenda 21 on steroids”.  But this new agenda is not just about the environment.  It also includes provisions regarding economics, agriculture, education and gender equality.  On September 25th, the Pope will travel to New York to give a major speech kicking off the UN conference where this new agenda will be unveiled.
There's an additional set of arguments here that rely on biblical prophesy.  He goes into a couple of angles on that and points out something interesting in the recent pattern. The number seven and multiples of seven are prominent.  First, I must explain that in Jewish history, the Shemitah is the 7th year of a cycle.  Much like a seven day week, the Shemitah year was like a sabbath; fields were to lie fallow, and debts were to be forgiven - something foreign to today's world of 30 year mortgages and other long obligations.  Every seventh Shemitah year (every 49 years) is a year of Jubilee, where every Jew was expected to return to their property and their family.  
On September 17th, 2001 (which was Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar), we witnessed the greatest one day stock market crash in U.S. history up until that time.  The Dow plummeted 684 points, and it was a record that held for exactly seven years until the end of the next Shemitah cycle.

On September 29th, 2008 (which was also Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar, so exactly seven years later by that calendar), the Dow fell by an astounding 777 points, which still today remains the greatest one day stock market crash of all time.  [777 is a Biblical number itself, said to be a sign of perfection - SiG]

September 13th of this year is Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar – the last day of the Shemitah year, again exactly seven years later by that calendar, many are concerned about this date because we have seen giant stock market crashes on the last day of the previous two Shemitah cycles. 
For one thing, we can absolutely guarantee there will be no market crash on September 13th.  It's a Sunday; the markets are closed.  Aside from that, the piece is worth reading.  I'll note that there are several links to the Economic Collapse Blog embedded in that article that are not working today.  I suspect they're having some problems.
In what has to be the freakiest example of a "you can't make this stuff up" event, two cows were born with the number 7 on their head at the beginning of this Shemitah year; one in Pennsylvania (named Baby Ben after Steelers' QB Ben Rothlisberger) and one in Texas - a red heifer.  How rare is this?  That is, how many calves are born every year with markings like the number 7?  I couldn't tell you. 

Am I losing it?  Have I already lost it?  The times between the previous crashes and their place on the calendar simply "are what they are".  Whether they mean something is happening this year on Elul 29, the Shemitah, or on the blood moon eclipse on September 25th, or if the markets are going to collapse at all is the leap you must make.  


  1. I pretty much agree with everything you said. There has been a quickening of social and economic issues that cannot be ignored. The only thing I disagree with is "when". I don't know when and it is unknowable. You did of course allow that a black swan could occur at any time and I agree. The clinker in this prediction thingy is that there are real humans in control and they have a vested interest in seeing certain outcomes. If something were to bring the economic collapse stars into alignment in the Fall the feds and the politicians would take steps to delay, obscure, alter and in general kick the can down the road. This is really where we are now. Every few months Yellen's job is to take a good kick at the can. I don't know what more they can do but make no mistake they will do "it" anyway. So maybe instead of the big collapse in the fall we instead see more of the same tinkering, a lot more. Which wouldn't be good by any means but it wouldn't be falling into the abyss either. The news headline wouldn't be about a big crash, instead the media would continue to report about Bruce Jenner, under inflated footballs and the latest white on black hyped story. Don't get me wrong, we would still be in deep shit and sliding downhill at a fast rate of speed. But without the big one it won't be front page news. UNLESSSSSSS, the president, congress and everyone else involved is a Republican/conservative.

  2. That's a very good point. I see a lot of ominous signs in the technical analysis of the Dow, NASDAQ, bonds and more. The thing is, I'm sure every bank and every brokerage has a chart guy who sees the same things. If it can be avoided, they'll do it.

  3. In addition to the domino's here starting to teeter China is in
    the midst of a major economic upheaval. It's not being talked about
    and the military muscle flexing is distracting but the economy there is no where near as stable as they'd like us to believe. The ONLY
    real advantage we have over many other countries is our resources,
    especially petroleum. But if the economy tanks then nobody can buy
    oil. Doesn't matter how many resources you have if nobody can afford
    them. We do however have a big 'trump card'.....our agricultural
    capacity. We produce far more food than we consume, that's a huge
    economic advantage that to date we haven't used politically but could
    if necessary....and if we had a government that was concerned with American interests rather than destroying American exceptionalism.

  4. Obama would let American families starve to death before he would stop the billions going to Gaza and other muslim enclaves. He'd continue to ship food we need to the same sub-humans he has been shipping weapons to in the Middle East, even if it was needed here. He is a disciple of Cloward-Piven, so don't imagine for a minute that he isn't actually _invested_ in seeing our economy suffer.

    Back in the Fifties, the communists in the Soviet Union told us they would bury us. Obama has told us he would provide "shovel-ready" jobs, but he never said it would be Americans operating the shovels.

    I think that our government has been very good at hiding the cracks running through our economy, widening every day. I think they will be capable - with the complete and total collusion of the media - of keeping the shell game going for some time, long after a country with real journalists would know the truth.

    I can't see how it could be possible for us to keep from experiencing an economic collapse. I simply believe .gov will be able to delay the full impact for far longer than we would expect. Long enough for filth like Obama, Reid, Pelosi, McCain, McConnell, Boehner, Roberts, Ginsberg, and Sotomayer et. al., to secure safe refuges for themselves. They had better do it in another country, because if they ,remain accessible to Americans after a collapse, they won't last as long as they think they will.

  5. There's little doubt that some sort of financial catastrophe is impending; the real question is how much of a societal catastrophe will result from the financial catastrophe.

    Some impact, certainly, but a 30% drop in NYSE and AMEX values won't affect the existing infrastructure. It may affect use of that infrastructure if Company X operates its manufacturing facility only 3 days a week because it can't obtain sufficient quantities of substance/component Y to produce Product Z. The end result would be that several outfits in Company X's line of business simply shut down operations pending sunnier days; that would have a ripple effect that would create a large societal impact, especially if enough off those Companies X never re-open. A lot of industrial outfits are sitting on the edge right now, and the accounting numbers for many would point to "shut down" rather than "suspend" with a surprisingly small amount of negative change.

    Something's going to happen soon that won't be good; it will be interesting to see what lies the media thinks it can sell about it, and if the American people are smart enough to figure out where the blame for it really lies.

  6. SurvivalBlog linked to that article and it crashed the servers.
    It took me two days before I could get it to load.

    All I can say is that it looks inevitable that the whole world's economy is going to go belly up eventually.
    They have been artificially propping up the Too Big To Fail banks who continue to run amok as though there are no consequences to their irresponsible behaviors.
    Sheer numbers do not lie, when there are more bad derivatives out there than the GDP of the entire planet then all it is going to take is one little mistake by someone somewhere to start an avalanche that no one will be able to stop.

    Couple this with your post about the lack of Craftsmen anymore and no one in the younger generations having any real world skills to rely on and the words Shit Storm come immediately to mind.

    We are all going to be well and truly fucked.

  7. Phil, I've heard the total face value of all the derivatives over $1000 trillion; $1.5 quadrillion.

    The GDP of the entire planet is about $60 trillion, so that's actually more than 20 times all the money in the world.

  8. About derivatives... It isn't quite that bad. Most derivatives are a bundled interest or investment in something. Stocks, bonds, real estate, good will, etc. They are not "always" and obligation. Sometimes they are more like insurance where you pay for it but it only returns on your investment under certain circumstances. Most of them are not intended to be cashed in and never will be. Secondly the nature of derivatives is that I might buy a derivative worth a million and I might sell my interest in that derivative to someone else. Perhaps bundled or naked. Then that 2nd person sells their interest to a 3rd person and so on a thousand times. Now that mere 1 million obligation looks like 1 billion on paper. So while there "could be" 1000 trillion in derivatives outstanding there is likely an root value of well under the worlds GDP and most likely well under the GDP of the U.S. Most of it is paper and if TSHTF it will be worth just slightly less than toilet paper. By that I mean it may well be an uncallable and unpayable debt. Someone will have paid something for that paper and their loss will be real but it will be a fraction of the face value and in the greater scheme of things meaningless to most of us. Some exceptions of course. If for example your cities controller or CFO invests all of the city's money in derivatives and the SHTF you as the tax payer will either have to forgo services or pony up more money. But for the most part it won't make a collapse worse any more than holding stock in a collapsing market does.

  9. Sounds suspiciously like a Pyramid scam to me.
    Wait, couldn't be, it's legal.