Thursday, October 6, 2016

Out of Our Hands, Now

Well, the shutters are up, the antennas are down, and everything that can be made safe has been.  We're going to lose our freshly planted tomatoes and winter veggies, but there just isn't much we can do about that.  The hurricane forecasts have had Matthew on top of us since late Tuesday.  We've had occasional hours of good news, from the standpoint of weakening the storm, but the chances of it staying well offshore are long gone. 

I hope it was clear when I said, "I'll decide if I'm putting the shutters up and taking the antennas down in the morning.  That will depend on how stable the track is looking.", that the decision to not put up shutters would be if the track moved away from us.  If the track stayed where it was or ventured closer, the shutters were going up.  Here's a comparison where I tacked the Tuesday night track next to the one they just put up:
That "8AM Fri" location on the bigger plot looks to be directly over my house, as accurately as one can read those things.  As you can see, the Tuesday track kept it offshore for the entire forecast period, while today's map (and, really, Wednesday morning's) show it riding up the coast from here.  The only things that would improve our chances are if it goes very far offshore, which isn't likely, or if it should come ashore earlier and either ride the coast longer, or better yet, move farther inland.  Both of those would serve to weaken the storm.  The morning forecast showed it hugging the coast more, but that went away a few hours later.  Also note that they now think the storm will weaken and loop back for another run at south Florida.  We could conceivably get it twice

Depending on how the next 30 hours progress, it might get spotty around here.  Like I said before, the last time we had hurricanes ('04) our power wasn't out more than 36 hours.  Our power was back on while neighbors literally across the street behind us didn't get theirs back for another day.  Some places were out for weeks.  Those were two category 3 storms, which this might become, if we're lucky.

So wish us luck or send your prayers.
 

18 comments:

  1. Enough time to build a periscope for pictures?

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    1. Pictures should be possible, although they tend to not be very good at depicting what it's like.

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  2. Good luck. I am on the left coast but am fearful for those of you in the hurricane path.

    It sounds like you are planning to ride this out even though the hurricane will go right over you. What sorts of considerations did you make so that staying was preferable to evacuation?

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    1. That's a bit long to go into, but essentially everything about where we live, from the location to the way the house was built, was aimed at surviving a 150 mph storm.

      That said, there are things that will always be beyond our control.

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  3. Y'all are in my prayers. Please be careful!

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  4. Prayers sent and fingers crossed!

    Hope it's not as bad as you expect and that you ride it out in good shape.

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  5. Hang in there. Son drove up from FLL this am and put our shutters up with our help. Gusting to about 40 here right now. Antennas are down.
    For those that don't know, I am about 80 miles south of SiG in Port St. Lucie.

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    1. Good luck! Maybe we can swap stories at the MLB fest.

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    2. Looking forward to MLB.
      Wind has picked up a little and is slowly changing direction to the north. Looks like it is still out of the east at your QTH.

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  6. Be safe, stay inside and don't be a hero...

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  7. Just spoke with my step-mother in Cocoa Beach at 0730 her time (EDT). She said she never lost power and that the storm seemed to have moved slightly past (north of) her location. She said the wind was still banging her metal shutters but was reduced a bit from the worst of it, earlier in the morning.

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    1. Cape Canaveral weather station reported a 107 mph gust just after 0700, NWS data from MCO reported a max gust of 47 between 0800-0900, and a weather underground-linked home weather station about 8 miles east of downtown Orlando reported max wind of 39 MPH. around 0845, so it looks like the worst is over, at least for CFL.

      Now all we have to do is survive the hysterical media panic in GA, SC and NC and this one can go in the record books.

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    2. I thought I'd check in this way to update this post.

      Bottom line is that we got two big breaks. First, it started tracking farther offshore, right of the centerline. I think the closest approach was around 30 miles offshore. Second, the storm started sucking in dry air and getting weaker. When it was 30 miles offshore Melbourne, it was a 120 mph storm.

      I don't think we got Cat 1 winds, or if we did, it was for a few minutes at 3 AM. I don't think we got a dime's worth of damage to anything. Some of my neighbors weren't so lucky.

      Meanwhile, the power is out and the Cable is down. I'm using my data minutes on the phone to post this. I'll have more to say when things get working.


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    3. Unfortunately, over here in Port St. John, roughly 10 miles inland from Cocoa Beach, most homes are without power. But then again, that surely must be expected since we are almost a mile from the FPL "Cape Canaveral" power station. Power transmission over such a great distance must be a Herculean feat...
      }:-]

      If we're lucky, we may get power back within a week. If not...

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    4. Everything came back on about five minutes after I posted that comment. It was out for approximately 12 or hours. I don't know for sure when it went out, but it went off and came back on a few times starting about 2:45 (woke me up) and finally going off for good around 4.

      ISTRC that during Frances the power went out about 7AM and came back on around 9 that night, or 14 hours out. I had friends around town who were without power for three weeks.

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  8. All ok here but one silver buttonwood in the front. Power out for 10 hours from 1:30 to 11:30. Didn't even have to crank up the generator. Rig moved from the mobile and the vertical is back up.
    Glad all ok at your place.
    Really hope it doesn't loop around like the forecast shows. I remember that happening twice, Jean was the latest.

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  9. @ This is a great information it can help me, thanks for sharing.

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