- In the morning, a nice man comes for a visit.
- He puts food in your bowl.
- The food is fresh and tasty.
- The food is always in plentiful supply.
- At night there's a warm place to sleep.
- The next day, the process is repeated. The nice man visits, he feeds you, and you sleep comfortably. It repeats day after day.
- You think: everything is right with the world. How could anything possibly go wrong? In fact, the only thing I really have to fear is getting hit by lightening when it rains or a the rare chance a fox might get under the wire and into the coop (which very seldom happens). The Turkeys that worry about this are pessimists.
- One day, the nice man arrives.
- The nice man grabs you.
- He lays you across a stump, your neck exposed.
- He raises an axe and cuts off your head.
The normalcy bias, though, is pretty darned comfortable. I spent the weekend enjoying the sensation that this Thanksgiving weekend was a normal one, and probably not the last Thanksgiving of plenty I'll get to share with my family. I dare say it's why most of America is watching TV or fighting over $2 waffle makers.
But if you've been here before, you know that while I may occasionally look away or pretend things are normal, it's not a steady diet. Even troops on guard duty "take five" now and then. I will continue to look the coming disaster in its face and tell you what I see coming.