Wednesday, August 8, 2018

New Angle on That Canadian Mass Shooting

The mass shooting on Toronto's Danforth Avenue in Ontario, Canada last week that killed 12 sent a lot of ripples through the wider world.  It's virtually a meme that if the killer's name isn't instantly released, the killer must have a name that would lead others to conclude it might be an Islamist terrorist attack, and sure enough  the killers' age was released before they said they knew his name was Faisal Hussain.  In what universe can you know someone's age without knowing who they are?

Ammoland News, from the National Shooting Sports Federation, today prints an opinion piece from the Canadian Shooting Sports Federation that deserves a read.
Fahad Hussain, the Danforth killer’s brother, has a long criminal history involving both drugs and guns. By court order, he lived with his family friend Maisum Ansari, his bail surety.

Fahad and Ansari had 42 kilograms of Carfentanil and 33 guns in the basement of Ansari’s home. Thirty of those guns were a single model of Glock pistol, still in their boxes.
That second paragraph pegs my "that's weird" scale.  I have no problem with someone having 33 guns, but thirty identical, New In Box, Glocks?  Starting a store or equipping a task force so everyone has the same hardware?  Still, despite the screams from Toronto's mayor, guns don't commit crimes, and except for (assuming Canada's laws resemble ours) the part about Hussain probably being prohibited from being around those guns, it's just an oddity.  The real eye-popper, though, was 42 kilograms of Carfentanil.  That's an insane amount.  How insane is it?
A dose of just 20 micro-grams, smaller than a poppy seed, is fatal to humans. With 1 billion micro-grams per kilogram (yes, Billion) it translates into 50 million fatal doses per kilogram.

Police seized 42 kilograms of Carfentanil, or 2.1 BILLION fatal doses, from the basement of Ansari’s home, the same home Fahad Hussain was removed from when he overdosed on a combination of cocaine, heroin and an unnamed substance.

What drug dealer can sell 2.1 billion doses of any drug, let alone one as lethal as Carfentanil?
A better question might be what kind of small-time, two-bit drug dealer can get the cash – estimated at $50 to 100 million dollars – for 42 kilograms of Carfentanil when they can order smaller amounts with far less financial risk?  You're left with big questions about that.  Questions the Toronto police appear to be in no hurry to answer.  Could any drug dealer, even a big time dealer, sell that much of any drug in a reasonable amount of time?  Let's assume they don't want to kill everyone, so that instead of 2.1 billion doses, half that amount isn't fatal, so they'd have to sell 4.2 billion doses.  Canada isn't that big.  In fact, the CSSF does the math and tells us:
Hussain and Ansari possessed enough poison to kill the entire Greater Toronto Area (GTA) 328 times over, or enough to kill the entire population of Canada 58 times. 
It also corresponds to enough poison to kill the entire US population more than 6 times over.  

The CSSF goes down the path of assuming this was going to be the basis of a terrorist attack, and I don't think that should be dismissed without more investigation.  A question that they don't address is how Carfentanil needs to be administered.  Could it have been used in a terrorist attack that a couple of guys could pull off?  How about 30 guys (one per new, in box, Glock)?  There are reports that before it was discovered by drug dealers, Carfentanil was viewed (and used) as a chemical weapon, including by the Russians against the Chechens in the 2002 movie theater hostage situation.  Sounds like it could be aerosolized.  

Could this really have been a couple of guys trying to pull off a mass murder on a scale never seen before?  An entire metropolitan city at once?  An entire nation at once?  Could it be related to a suddenly increased police presence at at an area park?  Or the Canadian government expanding its distribution of Naloxone

You all know that Toronto's mayor blamed the shooting on guns and refused to acknowledge that it was a terrorist attack.  It would conflict with Trudeau's vision of bending over for Muslims.  The rest of the government is apparently silent about the details on this. 



  1. A lot of someone's got very lucky. Nothing about this makes sense other than a mass murder attack- fortunately whoever fronted the money and assistance put their operation in the hands of an idiot, who likely sampled the goods.

  2. I would make a guess that the stuff is so hazardous that mishandling a package could be a major problem. Oopsies might be fatal if not wearing a respirator.

  3. That's nearly as well-understood as that artillery-type shooting in Las Vegas.

  4. Well, 42 kilograms evenly distributed doesn't make any sense, but it does if your method only gets a small percentage of that to the target. Are 30 guys enough to simultaneously distribute it to all of a country's watersheds, timed so that it hits the population all at once? I suspect so.

    The US was the probable target. Canada isn't worth the trouble.

    1. I started thinking about this last night and it does seem like what they'd do, but then I started puzzling over whether it could work. Say they drop a kilogram in a big lake. What happens? Does it cause a fish kill, or something so that anyone watching the watershed knows something is wrong? I assume it's water soluble, but could it just settle to the bottom or float on top? Is it partially soluble, and so need to be stirred? And then what happens when it gets sucked into a municipal water system and gets chlorinated (seems most have gone to chloramine)?

      Too many questions for me.

    2. All good questions, and looking for answers would probably get you a nice visit from the gentlemen in the black SUVs that surrounded your house.

      It is also possible that it could be used simply as an area-denial weapon. Salt, for instance, is cheap but properly distributed it would raise holy hell with farming. Look at what a couple of simple anthrax letter bombs did to our infrastructure – now all a terrorist has to do to reduce office workers to gibbering wrecks is mail out a dozen envelopes with unscented talcum powder.

  5. It is "Law Enforcement" and the "Legal" system who enable this. In EVERY Western nation. They do WHATEVER they are told, as long as that paycheck keeps comin' in.

    Nothing will change for the better until they are dealt with appropriately.

  6. For many years it has been known that when the media doesn't give you a name or a picture of a captured suspect that they are probably black. If after a day or two still no name then they are likely illegal aliens, If the suspect(s) are referred to as teens again it is probably a gang of black kids. Their willingness to hide the facts instead of reporting the facts is part of the reason they are fake news and enemies of the people.

  7. I've thought for a couple of years now that carfentanil sounded more like a chemical weapon than a recreational drug... and that some foreign power was sending us remarkably large quantities of it.
    If it's just being used to liven up fake heroin, it just kills a few addicts... and a few cops who inadvertently get a whiff of the evidence.
    But, yes, 'tis a potential weapon. Apparently it's readily absorbed by inhalation of the dust, and there's an old trick for getting such materials absorbed through the skin (though I don't know how well that would work with this particular nasty).
    In that sort of quantity, even an epically inefficient means of distribution could cause a great many fatalities.

  8. Aesop:

    42 kilos is still far too small to distribute in a commercial water system with any hope of success. Noting how many LDs it represents is like saying I could kill all of Canada with one shell of VX.
    And equally meaningless, functionally.

    Well, yes, I could, if I could get them all to lick it for me off popsicle sticks, in a conga line. Via any practical delivery system, not so much.

    The reality is that 42 keys is the sort of thing you want to put in some handy spot in an air circulation system, like the A/C at the Mall of America, or any pro basketball arena during a game.

    That would get you some serious casualties in a do-able manner.

    All that leaves is figuring out how Mo and Achmed plan on getting to the roof of the WhatsisDome, putting it into the right spot(s), and then getting down again before all hell breaks loose. During the game. With everyone around outside watching it happen.

    They might as well just rent or steal a cropduster and plan to fly a load over Main Street at Disneyworld at noon on a Saturday, or just use a backpack leafblower to dust down the sidewalks of NYFC from a moving vehicle at that point.

    It also is a de facto WMD attack, we have a written national policy for that, and the current president, no longer a Muslim illegal alien, is quite likely to elect to pave Mecca in glass with a 2MT yield centered right over the Kaaba at noontime prayers, by way of explaining just exactly how out-of-bounds that sort of thing would be regarded. With the express understanding that Medina was now in the on-deck circle, and that after that, we'd be returning control of the Dome of the Rock to Israel (in powder form) by fuel air explosive in the unlikely case it took three times to drive the point well home.

    After that it would be Carthage circa last five minutes of the Third Punic War, with the part of the Carthaginians being played by Team Mo.
    We'd be talking human extinction event, and Islam would become about as popular as deodorant in France, and spoken aloud about as frequently as Esperanto.

    This bunch of barely-literate f**ktards is, collectively, going to keep monkeying with the IED in the road until it does to their worldwide entire tribe of inbred goathumpers what it did to the five dumb@$$#$ on everyone's favorite Iraqi comedy video collection.

    1. Aesop - thanks. I was hoping you'd show up with practical knowledge.

    2. I just double-checked my metric math. (Someone should triple-check me.)
      42 Keys is 2.1B (as in Billion) LD50 doses. Which sounds scary. Putting it in water?
      Okay. To get a concentration of .02mg in an 8-oz serving (1 cup), you'd dilute it into 131M gallons of water, give or take.
      Oh, and stir well.
      That's 402 acre/feet.
      That's 20 acres, twenty feet deep.
      Drop it into 25 acres, or twenty acres 25 feet deep, or fail to distribute it absolutely evenly, and nothing happens. Or near enough to nothing as to make no difference.

      And that's before we even get into inactivation by UV, filtration, and chemical treatment.

      Let's say they cut to the chase, and pumped it into city water flow. Residential flow through a 1" service line at 50 psi is 47gpm. Back-pumping a slurry in to the system would take 5.8 years.
      I can't swear the Mounties are that good, but I'm betting with a 5 year shot at catching you, they'd track down your operation long before you'd even made a few households dead, or even sick.

      Sure, you could force more in faster, but you're back to titrating the dose enough to get the job done, so you'd probably kill a few people nearby, but downstream and an hour later, it'd wouldn't even be giving people a buzz, unless they were really old, or really young, or infirm.

      It would be easier to use it to kill people with it if you froze it into ice blocks 2" around and six inches long, put them in a sock, and clubbed them over the head.
      At which point, the carfentanil itself is completely superfluous.

      So yeah, I'm going with air dispersion.
      And at that, they'd probably kill twenty people, and get a lot more sick/buzzed, and then the panic evacuation would start before you'd distributed more than 10-20% of the load. Netting you zero subsequent effects.

      If this stuff was any good at killing people except by accidental/incidental exposure, or salting heroin doses, we'd have been putting it into shells and bombs 60 years ago.


    3. Just for more Fun With Math, the equivalent number of LD50 dozes of liquid Sarin or VX would fill nearly 5 C-5 Galaxy cargo aircraft. (Whether they could heft it aloft I couldn't say, but that's how many cubic feet you'd need to tote the 1.1M gallons of nerve agent, or about 1/100th the amount of fluid to make Liquid Carfentanil Death. This is why the nerve agents were everyone's friend when it came time to pack nasty things into artillery shells long about 1917.)

      The difference being, if you had even one gallon of Sarin, and no C-5 Galaxies handy, you could just put it in a standard O2 cylinder under normal operating pressure, rig an aerosol spray dispersion head to it, crack it open on the mezzanine at a convenient sports event right after the national anthem, let alone stuff it into the air handling system, and be assured of generating televised worldwide panic, and probably improving on the tally of all of 9/11 by a hefty margin, in about 20 minutes.

      But, once again, you'd have to brighter than the room-temp IQ of the average Team Mo member to get to that point.

      And that they haven't done something like that suggests something even that simple is beyond their capabilities, because if they had the means, let alone the mental ability surpassing the brighter chimp species to manage that, they'd have been doing it for twenty years, at this point.

      And of course, you'd also have to willing to take the resultant megatonage of hate sent back at you in about an hour after the deed, as previously noted.

      So perhaps being as stupid, inept, and feeble as they are is a cruel trick of Darwinian survival instincts.

    4. Esperanto....nice.

  9. 33 identical Glock pistols. It'd be interesting to find out if the numbers are sequential, because if so, its likely a police or government order. No who was the order for.

  10. What we are often saved by is the fact that so many of these people abjectly stupid.

    If Islam hadn't spent 1400 years inbreeding we'd be in a lot more trouble than we are in now.

  11. The easy way to figure it out is.
    Did the pistols have Canada (and, well, a few US State) required "low capacity 10 shot magazines" or did they have the "normal capacity magazines" which hold more?
    Then, if they numbered "1, 2, 3, 4...etc." then somebody has some 'splainin' to do, right Lucy?


  12. This raises many questions, or perhaps one could say it creates many holes for investigation. Aerosolization will work, but this is too potent of a drug for this to makes sense. I would assume that 50-100M would be sufficient for 'supplies' to destroy a single venue. Multiple small releases would make more sense.

    Lungs ARE great for absorption of many chemicals, and it is INSTANTLY in the bloodstream on the way to the brain.

    But maybe they were just going to throw a really big Ramadan party ;)

    Just when you think that things cannot get any more strange!

  13. How about simply filling up a few dozen balloons, getting to the roof of 30 skyscrapers in some major city, and tossing them off the roof in different directions?

  14. I'm surprised, with the recent finds of Fentynal/Carfentanil in large quantities, that we have not seen an attack yet. Send those 33 glock recruits out to Canada's busiest salad bars or to get jobs in food service such as a drive thru. Most wouldn't even get caught, and those who did could empty their magazines. I'd suspect they have workable plans like this and are just waiting for the signal. The death toll would be much smaller than the potential, but the impact on everything-food, and the trust in government, would be devastating.

    Lucky for us here in the states we are between presidential elections, so the FBI has some free time to protect us.

  15. You don't have to find a way to distribute the drug to everyone.

    If you can find a way to make people BELIEVE that it's in the water supply ... the ensuing panic and hysteria will do the work for you.

    So, a localised murder via, for instance, a city water supply ... combined with the appropriate media releases, might do the job. What would be the ramifications for an urban population which fears to use the water from their kitchen' taps?

    I live on top of a very large aquifer, in England. There are local water-extraction facilities. These have, over the past few years, been 'hardened' by the construction of very substantial steel hatches and doors. Sure, the pumps and motors are tempting targets for petty thieves; but that doesn't explain why 'holes in the ground' have been armoured.

    1. Bobeagle,

      Remember the plot device of the false-flag attack on the 'Three Waters' water
      treatment plant in "V for Vendetta"?

      Need I say more?.....

    2. I had to Google it.

      Now, if you want a really dark and stylish 'conspiracy' piece, watch a show called 'Utopia'.

      This was made in 2013 (?) and shown on English TV.

      Beautifully filmed and acted, with an intriguing story, which is absolutely plausible.

      Series One, only.

      Here's a trailer ...

  16. Bad arithmetic:

    "A dose of just 20 micro-grams, smaller than a poppy seed, is fatal to humans. With 1 billion micro-grams per kilogram (yes, Billion) it translates into 50 million fatal doses per kilogram."

    That's 50,000 doses per kilogram. Still a lot, and the implication for 42 kilograms is 2.1 MILLION doses, so the questions are real. But diluted by bad arithmetic.

    1. Hate to say it, but check that again.

      The CSSF is absolutely right that 42,000 (grams) is 42 billion micrograms. Divided by 20 micrograms per dose is 2.1 billion doses.

    2. You're right, SiGraybeard. My mistake in calling out what **wasn't** a mistake.

    3. No problem. It's not like I ever accidentally make a mistake. (do I need the sarcasm font?)

  17. "Carfentanil is primarily used as an elephant tranquilizer within the United States and is not intended for human consumption. The U.S. National Library of Medicine (NLM) publishes that carfentanil is commercially marketed as Wildnil, a general anesthetic designed for use in large animals. It is also the most potent commercial opioid on the market."


    "Carfentanil may be illicitly marketed for recreational use in the form of tablets, spray, powder, or blotter paper, which may be smoked, ingested, inhaled, snorted, or injected. The high associated with the drug is intense and has a rapid onset."

    What is Carfentanil?

    So, from the above it could be conceivable to deploy
    it either in a aerosol or aerial brodcast method,
    swallowed or ingested as a liquid or even possibly
    dusted onto objects or areas for absorption through
    the skin (think of a potential evildoer tainting a
    1000 $1 dollar bills with it and leaving them in
    various locations and then gauging the response

    The folks in Canada really dodged the bullet on this
    one...and the part-time ski instructor/substitute
    teacher cum PM is NOT to thank for this whatsoever!

    As for WHO supplied the carfentanil in such a quantity
    in the 1st place (and also the quantity of Glocks, especially
    if they happen to all be consecutively numbered) bet is
    on some intelligence agency that has experience with moving
    quantities of either drugs or weapons in the past....say maybe,...
    "Christians In Action"? (although I wouldn't rule out
    Mossad either....)

    Curiouser and curiouser....wonder how far
    the rabbit hole goes down on this?....

    1. Maybe they planned to steal a whole zoo? Or dump it on Fort Knox to make the gold unusable as money. Wait a minute, I saw that somewhere, it was in a documentary about bonds...

    2. That was the one about bonds, James Bonds, right?

    3. I would think that 30 Mo operatives placing 1.4 kilo payloads of this drug over an explosive dispersal charge, set off on top of a tall structure upwind of large population centers could potentially kill tens of thousands of people and stone the bejesus out of many more, would widespread total panic across the globe. A dirty bomb without nuclear materials… If you will.

  18. Put some in the Holy Water at a Catholic church like Notre Dame?