Tuesday, September 29, 2020

On California Banning Gasoline or Diesel Cars by 2035

It was in May of 2017 that I noted California decided to become uninhabitable in 10 years (2027).  The reason?  The state legislature had mandated they reduce carbon emissions to 40% of the state's 1990 levels by the year 2030.  The new levels were to be 60% of the required 2020 levels passed previously.  Using advanced technology called a pocket calculator and an available number estimating CO2 sensitivity, I calculated how much difference this would make on world temperatures.  

In a piece I wrote in 2010, my first year here, I found a number for the amount of CO2 required to raise global temperature 1 degree C - according to the warmist's models. 1.8 million million metric tons.  California is going to reduce emissions by 172 million metric tons.  Since 172 is close to 180, lets be generous and round their reduction up to that.  That means they will reduce global temperature rise by 180/1,800,000 or .0001 degree C, which simply isn't detectable in a system as big as the planet.   

Not to be outdone by previous virtue signalers, Governor Gabbin' Nuisance (D - Uranus), issued an executive order on the 23rd banning the sale of internal combustion engine cars by the year 2035.  

“This is the most impactful step our state can take to fight climate change,” Newsom said. “For too many decades, we have allowed cars to pollute the air that our children and families breathe. You deserve to have a car that doesn’t give your kids asthma. Our cars shouldn’t make wildfires worse – and create more days filled with smoky air. Cars shouldn’t melt glaciers or raise sea levels threatening our cherished beaches and coastlines.” 

That's just full of nonsense.  I tell you what, I'll say it might possibly be true that Internal Combustion Engine exhaust is contributing to kids getting asthma.  Cars are having no effects on wildfires.  Historical records show the number and intensity of wildfires going down for the last hundred years.  What you're seeing, Gabbin', is the effect of your terrible forest management.  Cars aren't melting glaciers or raising sea levels, which have been rising since the end of the last ice age (and you'd best be damned glad they're not going down now because that would indicate the glaciers are coming back).  That's too much to get into the space here tonight.  

As full of nonsense as that is, my favorite quote is this from Newsom's Twitter account:

By 2035 every new car sold in CA will be an emission free vehicle.

There is simply no such thing as emission free vehicles if you look at the total environmental cost.

But ignore for the moment that the cars need to be produced from raw materials that are extracted and refined in ways that produce emissions, and are higher emission than ICE-powered cars.  Electric cars run on fuel, too, it's just not in a tank inside the vehicle.  In particular, they run on natural gas, coal, or whatever is producing electricity in the state (which in California these days is practically nothing).  In 2019, U.S. domestic production of electricity was 12.9 quadrillion BTUs (quads) from natural gas followed by 9.4 from crude oil, 5.3 from coal, 8.5 from nuclear, 2.7 from wind and 1 quad from solar power. The last two (wind and solar = 3.7 quads) can’t even begin to replace the first three (oil, gas and coal = 74.6 quads).  [Note: my numbers derived from numbers on that EIA.gov website]

Eric Worrall, writing at Watts Up With That notes:

Governor Newsom in his interview said “we no longer need to drill things or extract things to advance our economic goals” (see the Twitter video above).

Every study I have seen about renewables suggests that any serious attempt to go 100% renewable would require far more drilling and extracting than a fossil fuel powered economy, like a 2700% increase in lithium extraction. Even carbon intensive cement production would have to increase substantially – all those wind turbines and solar panels need cement bases.

Manufacturing cement largely consists of heating limestone or other Calcium Carbonates to 825C (1517F) degrees, to separate the limestone into Calcium Oxide and CO2. There is a lot of CO2 in limestone. Current cement manufacture accounts for 8% of global annual CO2 emissions. Cement does not last forever. A substantial permanent increase in global cement production would pretty much cancel any CO2 savings from going renewable.

If California continues their silly commitment to not having nuclear power and creating more "renewable energy", they'll be clear cutting forests to make way for wind turbines and solar panels, and then turning the Sierra Nevada mountains into strip mines to mine the rare earth metals there.  

Which raises the possibility that California is deliberately trying to get most of its population to leave the state.  That would reduce their energy demands to meet their Green Dreams. 

An early electric car from here.  Electric cars predate IC engine cars by nearly 80 years - the US Department of Energy says primitive electric cars were around in 1828, and it wasn't until the Model T in 1908 that IC engine cars left them behind.  Interesting that the range hasn't gone up in proportion to the other advances in cars today. 


  1. These are people who have zero conception of the cradle-to-grave energy cost of an all electric vehicle fleet, and they don't care to learn.

    Some people call it the "Total Cost of Ownership", but the concept is the same.

    It's all NIMBY thinking.....

  2. O/T - Borepatch is trying to set up a blog shoot in west-central Florida. Didn't know if you'd gotten the word.


  3. Yes, yes, by all means, California. Please, please mandate the exclusive use of electric vehicles in your state, which already has rolling blackouts every summer due to insufficient supply of electricity.

  4. Hey, I'm cool with it. I invested a good sum of money in advanced battery manufacturing companies. I stand to make a good chunk of change.

  5. What's funny is they want ALL electric vehicles but they can't even provide electricity all of the time to the state.

  6. It is obviously just virtue signaling. California can't supply the electricity it needs today, imagine the massive increase required to convert ~2 million cars a year to electric power. As they convert more of the supply to Wind and solar.

    If this was serious they would have to roll out a plan to dramatically increase wind power generation over the next 15 years.

    1. I don't think the governor has the authority to put out an order like that, but we see governors everywhere putting out mandates that they probably can't and if nobody takes the state to court to get the order ruled illegal, they get away with it.

      Or creates massive organized resistance.

  7. The only people they will get rid of are the taxpayers. The non tax payers will keep showing up at the social welfare agencies and also keep camping out on the sidewalks and crapping in the streets. And will anyone with a gas powered car visit California if it has no gas stations?

  8. I had a friend move from the east coast to the west a long time ago. It was nearly impossible to register his car, so he bought a new one. They taxed every last option that wasn’t deemed necessary, like AC.

    I asked him what it was like living there and he sad it was nuts. Morons driving to their anti pollution meetings in old cars belching pollution because they made new ones unaffordable.

    Every time I’m in California I see a rolling museum of ancient cars, unseen anywhere else. They aren’t restored either. Hell, a year or two ago I saw an AMC matador still rolling.

    1. Just like the other "communist utopia" off the southern end of Florida - Cuba (and communist utopia is probably the biggest oxymoron in the world). Instead of AMC Matadors, you find pre-1960 American cars. Matadors are 20 years newer than that.

  9. Ya know, if Ford,GM,Chrysler, Toyota, et.al. would collectively to say, "screw this for a game of pins!" and told Californistan to make their own damned cars, the price in the other 49 states would go down, the auto makers profit would go UP, and the little Hitlers running the left coast would be out of office in a week.