Sunday, October 5, 2014

The Global Warming Pause Reaches Voting Age

The period over which no statistical test can distinguish warming is now old enough to vote: 18 years and 1 month.  During that time CO2 levels have continued to rise.  

First, satellite temperature data:

and now the Mauna Loa CO2 levels - the ones typically used as the global sample.
It's pretty easy to see that CO2 levels have continued to climb since 1997, but the temperature has not.  

In my world, that marks two uncorrelated variables.


  1. A physics-based equation, with only two drivers (both natural) as independent variables, explains measured average global temperatures since before 1900 with 95% correlation, calculates credible values back to 1610, and predicts through 2037. The current trend is down.

    Search “AGWunveiled” for the drivers, method, equation, data sources, history (hind cast to 1610), predictions (to 2037) and an explanation of why CO2 is NOT a driver.

  2. CO2 is not an effective greenhouse gas. It accounts for about 1% of the total greenhouse effect. Water vapor accounts for about 97% of the greenhouse effect. Without that greenhouse effect of water vapor the planet would be too cold for life as we know it. However the increased CO2 has improved the crop yields at a time when higher yields were needed. It has greened the jungles more effectively then all the things the environmentalists have done. I'm hoping for a 600 ppm in my lifetime just to see the tremendous benefit it brings humanity and the natural environment. As luck would have it vocanic activity is increasing and volcanoes are the largest source of atmospheric CO2.
    The bad news is there is evidence/hints that we are actually beginning the next cyclical cooling period. Ironic isn't it that the warming cycle we have been in since about 1850 is hugely beneficial to humanity and other life on earth and the nut cases are excised over it. And now we may well enter into a cooling period which will be tough on humans and most other life on earth. I assume the Warmies will welcome the cooling cycle with open arms. It will bring back big coal however. It will also bring back famines, and human sufferring. I'm hoping the cyclical cooling cycle holds off. But just like the wrming cycle we cannot stop it and we cannot alter it so it is what it is.

  3. Wait, what?
    Mauna Loa is an active volcano. I can only speculate as to what gasses are emitted from this naturally occurring phenomenon. Gee, lets measure here!

  4. Atmospheric CO2 has been measured at many places, by different methods and over many periods.Google "dan pangburn" Middlebury to see several graphed. They all, including Mauna Loa, lie on the same line. Mauna Loa measurements are representative for the entire planet.

    Not that it matters, because CO2 change has no significant effect on climate as shown and explained why at the paper retrieved by a search for "AGWunveiled"