Yes, it has been talked about for ages, but now with the reusable orbital
class boosters SpaceX has developed, along with the reusable capsules to ride
to destinations in orbit, the dream of private sector space station
development looks closer than ever to becoming reality.
Allow me to reintroduce you to Axiom Space, a private company that intends to start launching private missions to the International Space Station in late 2021 or early '22. We talked about them earlier in the year (March). They will sell training for private astronauts to make the trip and help them do whatever mission they want to carry out. In the longer term, they intend to build a private replacement for the ISS starting in early '24. Which is necessary because the ISS has been inhabited continually for 20 years and is reaching end of life in some areas. Back in that piece last March, I noted:
But wait, it gets better.
Axiom's vision of their own space station. Older articles talk about them launching a lab that can be docked to the ISS and provide facilities for the private astronauts they want to put up there. The current website implies that "Axiom Hub One" (crew quarters, + research and manufacturing capability) appears to be what they want to launch first to get their own station started.
Allow me to reintroduce you to Axiom Space, a private company that intends to start launching private missions to the International Space Station in late 2021 or early '22. We talked about them earlier in the year (March). They will sell training for private astronauts to make the trip and help them do whatever mission they want to carry out. In the longer term, they intend to build a private replacement for the ISS starting in early '24. Which is necessary because the ISS has been inhabited continually for 20 years and is reaching end of life in some areas. Back in that piece last March, I noted:
It's worth noting that the ISS is only planned to be in service through 2024 and there are already plans to decommission and deorbit the $100 Billion dollar habitat. NASA officials are hoping to maintain funding through 2028; that would be 30 years after the first modules were placed on orbit. That pretty much guarantees that the annual maintenance costs for the ISS are going up (I have a 40 year old house - DAMHIK).SpaceX news site Teslarati reports that the first Axiom flight will reuse the Demo-1 capsule flown last May through August. Tentative launch date is the fourth quarter of '21. The mission to the ISS will be commanded by former NASA astronaut Mike Lopez-Algeria and will carry three other private astronauts, including Israeli multimillionaire Eytan Stibbe.
Thanks to the relentless innovation that SpaceX does, we're in a period unlike the previous ten or twenty years and more like the early days of the space program. The current first regular mission (i.e., not a demo) to the ISS on a SpaceX capsule, Crew-1, is slated to return in six months, or May of 2021. Until the 63-day Demo-2 mission, only one US manned spacecraft had ever stayed in space that long; the US record for a crewed spacecraft is 84 days. Crew-1 will easily double that record - it will be in space around 180 days. Several Russian spacecraft have decades of experience spending at least several months at a time in orbit. As the first US crewed spacecraft to spend that much time on orbit, you can be sure Crew-1 will be examined closer than any other spacecraft in ages.God willin’ and the creek don’t rise, I’ll be leading the Ax-1 crew on the first purely commercial orbital mission in history a little over a year from now – on this very SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule. It’s gonna be a #Blast ! pic.twitter.com/RL0bqbiWQz
— Michael L-A (@CommanderMLA) November 16, 2020
But wait, it gets better.
The Demo-2 Crew Dragon capsule is currently scheduled to fly a second time as early as March 31st, 2021 on SpaceX’s Crew-2 mission, ferrying another four astronauts to the ISS. If successful, Crew-2 will represent the first commercial astronaut launch ever to reuse both an orbital-class rocket booster and an orbital spacecraft, and the NASA-overseen process of refurbishment and re-flight will thus pave the way for future flight-proven astronaut launches. That includes private company Axiom Space’s first private AX-1 astronaut launch, which is currently scheduled to launch as early as Q4 2021. [Bold added - SiG]In that bolded sentence, strike the word "commercial." It will be the first launch by anyone to reuse both an orbital-class booster and an orbital spacecraft.
Axiom's vision of their own space station. Older articles talk about them launching a lab that can be docked to the ISS and provide facilities for the private astronauts they want to put up there. The current website implies that "Axiom Hub One" (crew quarters, + research and manufacturing capability) appears to be what they want to launch first to get their own station started.
I wonder if Axiom is interested in buying Bigelow Aerospace. The Bigelow test module on the ISS has been very satisfactory, giving a lot of end-use room for comparatively small launch volume.
ReplyDeleteOr, well, where are the stations made out of old upper stages?
Of course, just one Starship launched as a permanent station would outclass the ISS. And I wouldn't put it past Musk to be thinking of doing just this.
Is the ISS really at end of life? Or is it the case that the government's don't want to maintain it anymore? I am asking, I really don't know.
ReplyDeleteAnd if it is not really at end of life, would it be worthwhile for a private consortium to actually BUY the ISS? After all, it's already up there. If they are just going to de-orbit it and throw it away, maybe it would be possible to pick it up as a "fixer-upper", so to speak.
Ongoing maintenance costs increase steadily over time as equipment ages. At a certain point too many astronaut-hours are required for mtc & repair. That's what determines the (economic) lifetime.
DeleteI think Don in Oregon nails it. Parts of the ISS are 22 years old, and it's hostile environment (at least on the outside). Routine maintenance goes up, just like a 22 year old house versus a new one. The peaceful intervals between things breaking get smaller.
DeleteNow the point Beans makes just below this, about undocking individual modules and swapping in new ones makes sense, but it's a new one on me.
Funny that they're talking about closing the ISS, since the Russians are building two new modules for it, one flies in May 2021 and the other sometime in 2022. For something that closes down in 2024?
ReplyDeleteNow, I can see deplugging and dropping individual modules that suck friggin rocks and are needing more and more maintenance. Which is how the original ISS was sold to everyone. Enlarge and Update, change out the old for the new, build up a permanent station.
Which the ISS never has really fulfilled, but then again, that was before even the Falcon 9 and Dragon capsule came about. Then there's the 100 ton-to-LEO gorilla growing in the south of Texas...
I think a lot of the issues with building the station as you describe it, Beans, had to do with a lack of suitable heavy-lift launch capacity. The Shuttle never lived up to it's billing, and anything else cost too much. If you can't lift what you want, or the price is exorbitant, you won't build it.
DeleteNow that it appears we have a bountiful supply of lift capacity, with even larger launch vehicles coming to reality, perhaps we can really build a nice station in a better neighborhood. Too much junk around down at the orbit of the ISS. Maybe a nice spot at L1 or L2?
Only L4 and L5 are stable, drjim, the other three require constant boosting to remain "on station". I suggest that if you want low maintenance costs, we build on one of those.
DeleteSpeaking of course as one of the very-nearly-founding members of the L5 Society... ;)
A massive habitat at L4 or L5 seems to be Bezos' goal, rather than going to Mars. No matter what you do with it, cheaply reusable, heavy lift, like that "100 ton-to-LEO gorilla growing in the south of Texas..." is the key. When Blue Origin planned the New Glenn, they just weren't thinking big enough.
DeleteSiG, New Armstrong is Blue's goal, but at the rate they're moving they'll find Tycho there by the time they get it off the ground ("The Expanse" reference).
DeleteThanks, Malatrope. I didn't check closely enough to see what point was more stable. I did read that the L4/L5 points could be problematic if something perturbed the object positioned there, so I assumed (Ruh-Roh!) L1/L2 were "more" stable.
DeleteA thought.
ReplyDeleteInevitably, Space-X's approach to building space vehicles will spread, and become the industry standard, worldwide.
I'm picturing a day when, as with Andy Griffith's old show Salvage 1, or Billy Bob Thorton's movie The Astronaut Farmer, we start seeing private launches as routine events, with Travelocity offering LEO tour family packages for $599, launching from any of a dozen international spaceports.
If Ray Bradbury were alive today..
SpaceX's approach is being copied around the globe. The Russians, Chinese, Arianespace, you name it. I haven't heard the Japanese are going to, but the recurring costs to launch when the vehicle is reusable are just so much better even the Chicoms can't ignore it.
DeleteChina won't be dropping boosters on schools anymore. They'll probably land them on a daycare center - for the Uighurs.
One of the guys I worked with from Loral was at the Chicom launch that (literally) went sideways. He said the damage was FAR worse than what they showed, and the casualty count was probably 10x what they claimed..
DeleteWait... are you saying the Chinese aren't 100% truthful if they might look bad? I'm shocked! Stunned! Say it isn't so!
Delete;-)